Topic: Is this a bubble? (Read 3188 times)
Yes but its still long way to go before it pops. another 1 year at least.
If the price goes to $1 I will be switching off my miners for sure.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
Buying coins has nothing to do with it (btw, you would buy them at todays price, but not at $1? I sure as hell would).
And you may shut down your inefficient miners, but even at $1/BTC today those 28nm asics would still earn more than they cost in electricity.
Now $1 is pretty extreme, but you get my point.
Not really, it depends entirely on how many of "those 28nm asics" are hashing on the network. Given the halving of the btc rewards available each four years or so and the ever diminishing returns compounded by more/better asics it's a hiding to nothing.
The only way this $1 scenario works is if you're the one who stays switched on and hashing and a lot of other people switch off.
This isnt the same as price rise. This is technology becoming more efficient over time.
Uh I'd rather not have a plague or asteroid impact or WW3. I'm not sure why you'd hope for headlines "Billions die"
7-8 billion will die over the next century no matter what; including you and me.
My hope is just that it wont be 25 billion in the century thereafter. Our planet is simply not big enough. If this population explosion cant be brought under control, there are no ways to prevent starvation, war or epidemics as being the cause of those deaths rather than natural death.
The title of this video isnt much of a stretch, if you have some time, watch it through to the end:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ
here is one of the more relevant parts:
http://youtu.be/umFnrvcS6AQ?t=13m32s
Quote
Hopefully it *IS*
Uh I'd rather not have a plague or asteroid impact or WW3. I'm not sure why you'd hope for headlines "Billions die"
End times after that peak.. ugh ... revalations?>!?!?!?! Nooooooo... 
Hopefully this is also not a bubble:
Hopefully it *IS*
Hopefully this is also not a bubble:
No but you could say the speed increase we've enjoyed over the past decades will hit a brick wall.
The point is that CPU speeds won't suddenly fall, because they aren't in a bubble.
OK.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Here are some other things that are also not bubbles:
Number of cell phones in US
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/10/12/technology/cellphones_outnumber_americans/chart-wireless.top.gif
Number of cars registered
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/images/facts/fotw438.gif
World internet access
http://www.theawl.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Screen-shot-2010-08-17-at-2.11.10-PM.png
Number of websites
http://media.nngroup.com/media/editor/alertbox/web-growth-chart.gif
None of these things are bubbles either. At no point will the cellphone "bubble" "pop" and everyone will go and throw away their cell phones.
This is not a bubble. It isn't even anything remotely related to the bubble. It's as far from a bubble as possible. It might as well be the opposite of a bubble.
So this is an antibubble?
This is not a bubble. It isn't even anything remotely related to the bubble. It's as far from a bubble as possible. It might as well be the opposite of a bubble.
Moore's law states that transistor density doubles every 18 months (he actually said 24 months, but whatever). Thats what has given rise to exponential increases in computing power. Its not up for debate that this will stop, it will stop due to fundamental laws of physics, the only question is when. Once it does stop, you can not maintain exponential growth with parallelism, parallelism is linear.
Thanks to smaller transistors, which also means lower power consumption and higher clockspeeds, In the past 5 decades, we have roughly seen a billion fold increase in computing power per $. To maintain that through parallellism would mean in 5 decades, your PC would cost a billion times more, have to use a billion chips and consume a billion times more electricity. Not gonna happen
Thanks to smaller transistors, which also means lower power consumption and higher clockspeeds, In the past 5 decades, we have roughly seen a billion fold increase in computing power per $. To maintain that through parallellism would mean in 5 decades, your PC would cost a billion times more, have to use a billion chips and consume a billion times more electricity. Not gonna happen
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble?
No but you could say the speed increase we've enjoyed over the past decades will hit a brick wall. In so far it hasnt already. And moore's law is running out of steam too. IIRC on some chips we are down to feature sizes that are just a dozen atoms wide, transistor size is approaching atomic levels. It just doesnt get smaller than that. We are not there yet, still a few shrinks that are probably feasible but the end is in sight.
Even if speed increases hit a brick wall (which I disagree with), the total computing power on the planet will still go up, as it has, at an exponential rate.
Even if asics hit a "brick wall" in terms of process (at 28nm) and then hit another brick wall in terms of design optimization, the hash rate can still go up significantly due to parallelism. More of the most efficient asic will be brought online. More efficient hashing power will displace less efficient hashing power. Yes, the rate of increase in the hash rate will certainly go down - it's unsustainable. But hash rate will continue going up for a very long time, unless bitcoin price crashes.
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble?
No but you could say the speed increase we've enjoyed over the past decades will hit a brick wall. In so far it hasnt already. And moore's law is running out of steam too. IIRC on some chips we are down to feature sizes that are just a dozen atoms wide, transistor size is approaching atomic levels. It just doesnt get smaller than that. We are not there yet, still a few shrinks that are probably feasible but the end is in sight.
Moore's law itself does scale further, though there is walls with gains and prices.
You just need to add more chips for Moore's law to work. Though this is costly and gains aren't very good beyond some point.
It can pop, but that is when bitcoin goes out of use. As said, it's not a bubble as in financial bubbles.
Saturating is not the same thing as crashing.
A bubble, by definition pops (i.e. crashes).
A bubble, by definition pops (i.e. crashes).
Nothing goes up forever. Question is what play should you execute to take advantage of an unsustainable rise and timing of course.
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble?
No but you could say the speed increase we've enjoyed over the past decades will hit a brick wall. In so far it hasnt already. And moore's law is running out of steam too. IIRC on some chips we are down to feature sizes that are just a dozen atoms wide, transistor size is approaching atomic levels. It just doesnt get smaller than that. We are not there yet, still a few shrinks that are probably feasible but the end is in sight.
Analogy should be to the Moore's law, not to price variations.
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble? Shall we go back to using 80386's?
If you're saying the current bitcoin price is a bubble. That may very well be. But don't mix the two issues.
Of course if the bitcoin price is a bubble, and if it crashes, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS, the miners may turn off their mining equipment. But that doesn't mean the bitcoin network hashing power is a bubble.
Are the cpu speeds that we enjoy today a bubble? Shall we go back to using 80386's?
If you're saying the current bitcoin price is a bubble. That may very well be. But don't mix the two issues.
Of course if the bitcoin price is a bubble, and if it crashes, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS, the miners may turn off their mining equipment. But that doesn't mean the bitcoin network hashing power is a bubble.
OK.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore%27s+law
If the price goes to $1 I will be switching off my miners for sure.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
Buying coins has nothing to do with it (btw, you would buy them at todays price, but not at $1? I sure as hell would).
And you may shut down your inefficient miners, but even at $1/BTC today those 28nm asics would still earn more than they cost in electricity.
Now $1 is pretty extreme, but you get my point.
A few years ago, we have seen far steeper increases in difficulty than what we see now. You cant spot that in the current curve anymore as it has become noise, but here is a good chart for you:
You can still easily spot that early rise in the difficulty curve if you use a logarithmic scale:
If the price goes to $1 I will be switching off my miners for sure.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
And I will not be willing to buy any more coins.
(assuming constant btc price)
That was my thought to.But you can't assume that.
Nor can you predict it. Whats going on now has nothing to do with BTC price and BTC price will have next to no influence on network hashrate over the next months either; even if it goes to $1 or $10000, those asics will be deployed and cant be deployed faster than they are anyway. BTC price will only determine at what level the growth will taper off.
(assuming constant btc price)
That was my thought too reading your analysis.But you can't assume that.
I think we have a very wild ride in front of us.
A few years ago, we have seen far steeper increases in difficulty than what we see now. You cant spot that in the current curve anymore as it has become noise, but here is a good chart for you:
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-reaches-1-petahash-per-second/
These werent "bubbles" and nor is the current rise, its the network adjusting to new technological realities. This apparent exponential growth wont last, just like the previous ones didnt last, but that doesnt mean it will implode, just that it will taper off once the transition is complete. FWIW, whats happening now has been predicted many years ago, it was inevitable we would move to asic's at some point given they are inherently vastly superior in GH/$ and GH/W than FPGA, GPU's and CPU's. If anything this transition is happening much slower than I would have predicted.
But we are now in the last phase. After asics (and particularly 28nm asics) there is nothing else to create this kind of network growth. Or if there is, its yet to be invented. The network will continue to grow to 10+ PH without slowing down, probably even accelerate further in the coming months. Then it will begin to slow, but it wont stabilize before we reach somewhere between 50 and 500PH (assuming constant btc price).
Economics dictate that.
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-reaches-1-petahash-per-second/
These werent "bubbles" and nor is the current rise, its the network adjusting to new technological realities. This apparent exponential growth wont last, just like the previous ones didnt last, but that doesnt mean it will implode, just that it will taper off once the transition is complete. FWIW, whats happening now has been predicted many years ago, it was inevitable we would move to asic's at some point given they are inherently vastly superior in GH/$ and GH/W than FPGA, GPU's and CPU's. If anything this transition is happening much slower than I would have predicted.
But we are now in the last phase. After asics (and particularly 28nm asics) there is nothing else to create this kind of network growth. Or if there is, its yet to be invented. The network will continue to grow to 10+ PH without slowing down, probably even accelerate further in the coming months. Then it will begin to slow, but it wont stabilize before we reach somewhere between 50 and 500PH (assuming constant btc price).
Economics dictate that.
So. Now similar graphs then. This is a first.
Lets see how and when it pops.
EDIT
Similar threat wrong subforum
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-if-mining-suddenly-becomes-unprofitable-for-most-miners-300642
Lets see how and when it pops.
EDIT
Similar threat wrong subforum
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-if-mining-suddenly-becomes-unprofitable-for-most-miners-300642
this is called paradigm shift - conditions have severely changed
this is not a bubble. the hardware to mine this hard, is out there, and it will stay out there until when upgrades come, and the hardware will be obsolete.
How about if bitcoind is modified to take out the ASICs.
then me and 98% of the network will still use the good and old bitcoind, and fork the source. 
It won't.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
So this time it will be different?
How about if bitcoind is modified to take out the ASICs.
OK.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
Can you show me some similar real life graphs?
I mean graphs with something to be gained from.
It won't.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
ASICs that are currently mining or pre-ordered will continue to mine for as long as running the ASIC generates more bitcoin than is lost through electricity costs. And it'll take quite a while before that happens. Whether the ASIC generates enough to justify its purchase is irrelevant in this matter, they've been ordered and produced, so they will be operated.
Eventually the growth of the hashrate will slow down, but unlike a price-bubble, there will be no collapse.
The question is where it will pop?
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