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Topic: What if mining suddenly becomes unprofitable for most miners? (Read 7084 times)

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust

We had 19 THash at the begin of the year.  Now we have 2200 THash (so 19 THash is old HW  and 2180 is new one .. asics)

Edit: and at the end of year we will have 10,000 - 20,000 THash ... new 28 nm asics

yeah , but those are running at 6-10W/GH , which is 10 times more at best.
Well it still leaves room against the current electric bill but I doubt that will see any mining equipment bought before August still running in January.

My point was that miners who haven't changed their equipment are having a hard time right now.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?

1) 0.6 W / GHash = 0.6 kW / THash =>  1200 kW / 2000 THash
2)  if you will mine 1 hour then it will cost  1200 kW * $0.15/kWh = $180   and you will mine 6 * 25 BTC =  150 BTC
============
result: running costs are 100 times lower than bitcoin price if you are using 0,28 nm asics  (but hardware is too expensive)

Can you please tell me where does this come from?

1. Power cost (USD/kWh)  $0.15
2. http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-ii-1ths-networked-miner-january-batch/  28 nm asic  1 THash/600 Watts
3. Network total   2164.711 Thash/s  (now)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/



The thing is that you can't mine with that now Smiley you'll be able to mine in January
And unfortunately most of the network hash isn't provided by KNC , it is composed mostly of the last generation mining equipment.

I made the mistake of overlooking he said the running cost and thinking about mining cost (which does  involve the cost of equipment) but still don't think getting into mining was my brightest idea.

We had 19 THash at the begin of the year.  Now we have 2200 THash (so 19 THash is old HW  and 2180 is new one .. asics)

Edit: and at the end of year we will have 10,000 - 20,000 THash ... new 28 nm asics
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?

1) 0.6 W / GHash = 0.6 kW / THash =>  1200 kW / 2000 THash
2)  if you will mine 1 hour then it will cost  1200 kW * $0.15/kWh = $180   and you will mine 6 * 25 BTC =  150 BTC
============
result: running costs are 100 times lower than bitcoin price if you are using 0,28 nm asics  (but hardware is too expensive)

Can you please tell me where does this come from?

1. Power cost (USD/kWh)  $0.15
2. http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-ii-1ths-networked-miner-january-batch/  28 nm asic  1 THash/600 Watts
3. Network total   2164.711 Thash/s  (now)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/



The thing is that you can't mine with that now Smiley you'll be able to mine in January
And unfortunately most of the network hash isn't provided by KNC , it is composed mostly of the last generation mining equipment.

I made the mistake of overlooking he said the running cost and thinking about mining cost (which does  involve the cost of equipment) but still don't think getting into mining was my brightest idea.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?

1) 0.6 W / GHash = 0.6 kW / THash =>  1200 kW / 2000 THash
2)  if you will mine 1 hour then it will cost  1200 kW * $0.15/kWh = $180   and you will mine 6 * 25 BTC =  150 BTC
============
result: running costs are 100 times lower than bitcoin price if you are using 0,28 nm asics  (but hardware is too expensive)

Can you please tell me where does this come from?

1. Power cost (USD/kWh)  $0.15
2. http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-ii-1ths-networked-miner-january-batch/  28 nm asic  1 THash/600 Watts
EDIT: or http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/
EDIT1: https://hashfast.com/shop/baby-jet-third-batch/
3. Network total   2164.711 Thash/s  (now)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?

1)  0.6 W / GHash = 0.6 kW / THash =>  1200 kW / 2000 THash
2)  if you will mine 1 hour then it will cost  1200 kW * $0.15/kWh = $180   and you will mine 6 * 25 BTC =  150 BTC
============
result: running costs are 100 times lower than bitcoin price if you are using 0,28 nm asics  (but hardware is too expensive)

Can you please tell me where does this come from?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?

1)  0.6 W / GHash = 0.6 kW / THash =>  1200 kW / 2000 THash
2)  if you will mine 1 hour then it will cost  1200 kW * $0.15/kWh = $180   and you will mine 6 * 25 BTC =  150 BTC
============
result: running costs are 100 times lower than bitcoin price if you are using 0,28 nm asics  (but hardware is too expensive)
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Mining is extremely profitable against running costs right now.  You don't need any higher exchange rate for that.

And now?
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.

after smoking a spliff (or two) i imagined a home radiator company that builds radiators that are actually miners. once bitcoin price is high enough one could market this as "heating for free"  Grin


edit: lol, misread "what if whining suddenly becomes unprofitable..."
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 3079
everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.

It could make sense at some point in the development of mining manufacturing, likely when the transaction fees regularly become a significant part of the block reward. That could take another 2 reward halvings though, so until then, it makes more sense to take the route of massive farm + selling complete mining units. And making sure the farm's online before they start shipping, of course
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1022
everything that produces heat from electricity will mine, it will be a standard chip / resistor

toaster with mining resistors

hot water heating element

bar heater

hairdryer


think about it.
b!z
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1010
I think then, the miners that are remaining will profit from lower difficulty.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
Also keep in mind small miners don't price out all the extras it takes to run the equipment.  Large scale facilities have to pay salaries, insurance, etc... etc...
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination

I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


Each of those miners maybe only draw 300w for 60Gh, but the number of those miners can be millions, thus the hash power will be very distributed around the world. Any single mining farm can not afford too much electricity and heat burden, they will be quickly overwhelmed by millions of miners with free electricity

Maybe some large mining farm can design water cooling devices and sell the hot water as a heating service, but due to quick technology advance in ASIC devices, that plan is also risky
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
What you think the result of a hard fork will be on adoption and exchange rates?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

And a 4800 piece of "hashing" is within most rent a home hobbyist budget?

My theory was as simple as it gets , it will cost less and less money to make an actual attack for the 51%
.
Don't forget that my FUD theory doesn't mean hey we buy 10 millions of equipment and get the necessary hashrate from the first second they plug in.

They just have to buy equipment as other miners do (even receive profit in the first stages ) and invest invest until this is going to make a loss for every miner (including them) and at that point when people quit  >1 hour > 10 blocks and bitcoin is doomed. (which I hope not)

Also...
Ebay buys online payment firm Braintree for about $800m to strengthen its PayPal division's presence on mobile devices

How much will they pay to "weaken" the other payment methods??

And if they try to change the rules, we fork.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

And a 4800 piece of "hashing" is within most rent a home hobbyist budget?

My theory was as simple as it gets , it will cost less and less money to make an actual attack for the 51%
.
Don't forget that my FUD theory doesn't mean hey we buy 10 millions of equipment and get the necessary hashrate from the first second they plug in.

They just have to buy equipment as other miners do (even receive profit in the first stages ) and invest invest until this is going to make a loss for every miner (including them) and at that point when people quit  >1 hour > 10 blocks and bitcoin is doomed. (which I hope not)

Also...
Ebay buys online payment firm Braintree for about $800m to strengthen its PayPal division's presence on mobile devices

How much will they pay to "weaken" the other payment methods??
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Since difficulty follows price, and price has corrected from the high, I expect difficulty to peak out too and correct due to unprofitable miners switching off equipment, just like in 2011. I would also think this will happen somewhere the coming months.

Since these are all feedback loops I wonder whether this event will have an influence on the btc price. Anyone knows?

difficulty will continue to go up for a long while still

once we reach the limits for producing the most efficient bitcoin mining machine, then hash rate will fall, but I think we are a long way off from that. idk but i feel like there will be more than 2 generations of ACIS before we reach this technological limitation.

thanks but not my question
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