Is this a sign of the next Bitcoin bull run? Or just another bull trap?

exstasie

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Quote from: STT on November 28, 2019, 04:04:10 PM

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There's no doubt we're in a downtrend,

Theres plenty of doubt while the 200 day is rising thats a disparity and its muddy water, my take is there is not trend especially its just lost the uptrend and we get some sell from lack of those previous gains and speculation must leave the price like a wet rag wrung dry. When we got the more solid base, we can see some change. I dont think we are quite set into a determined negative trend.

This is just a question of time frames. By some metrics the monthly chart is still in an uptrend, and the yearly chart is clearly bullish. The decade-long uptrend is comfortably intact.

However at the daily and weekly time frames, we are very clearly in a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows, a declining 20-week MA, price is down 43% over 5 months, etc.

That short to mid-term bearish outlook hasn't changed yet, though I do believe we are near the bottom.

STT

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The event occurs in 2020 and no doubt speculation before but the effects of that event are mostly in the price for 2021. Anyone whose in shares will be familiar that the price is not for today but an estimation of future accounts, so the halvening is not immediate transformation but the price then will estimate. 2021 is where the bulk of gains from halvening should occur so far as I know because it represents less supply over time.
I think people jump the gun a little too much on that one, I guess I should be happy if we see some predictable washout and to be more optimistic towards the end of next year if that should be the case despite any negative mood.

Quote

There's no doubt we're in a downtrend,

Theres plenty of doubt while the 200 day is rising thats a disparity and its muddy water, my take is there is not trend especially its just lost the uptrend and we get some sell from lack of those previous gains and speculation must leave the price like a wet rag wrung dry. When we got the more solid base, we can see some change. I dont think we are quite set into a determined negative trend.

Wexlike

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Quote from: Oceat on November 27, 2019, 04:46:25 PM

The halving in 2020 probably won't change the price into bullishness because as expected it will occur in 2021 but when is it exactly? Maybe in Q4 of 2021 that might be the start of Bitcoin to the moon trend. With all of this speculation about of the next halving it only spice up the news of Bitcoin to bull run.

The halving will definitely take place in 2020.

exstasie

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Quote from: leowonderful on November 27, 2019, 07:24:21 PM

The continued lower lows that we've been achieving on higher timeframes like the daily and weekly definitely isn't a good sign for the bulls (as well as continued lower highs), and it's looking somewhat likely at this point that we're in a channel downwards as every pump seems to bleed off into a newer low.

Yep, there's a pretty clear down channel here. In fact, it might have been one technical reason for stopping near $6,500 rather than the highly anticipated low $6,000s area:

I'm a big trend trader. There's no doubt we're in a downtrend, and it's sensible to keep betting that trend. Having said that though, the structure of the downtrend is not that bearish. It isn't impulsive. It's an orderly correction that keeps overlapping into the previous range. That tells me supply is weaker than all the bearish sentiment suggests.

If you're shorting down here, make sure to have stops on the book. The bears trading with "mental stops" got slaughtered by the October run to $10,500.

adaseb

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Bitfinex these days is pretty irrelevant to the markets... well unless something happens to their Tether company. But using Bitfinex in 2019 is not like 2016 which dominated most Bitcoin trading.

So I wouldn't focus too much on their market sells and buys. I also stopped looking at their long and short ratios since they seem very inaccurate these days.

Most trading is done with derivative markets like Bitmex or on the large Binance exchange. When I am doing my analysis I usually look at those 2 and never Bitfinex.

Pearls Before Swine

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Quote from: cheezcarls on November 26, 2019, 10:40:08 AM

No matter what “momentum” do they have, it would probably end up as a bull trap in the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today.

There isn't really any momentum *yet* just as there wasn't any momentum when bitcoin fell to under $6700 the other day. It was a quick up and down type of thing, just like this pop to above $7500 might not have any momentum to it. That's something which can only be determined in retrospect.

But any way you cut it, it's better that bitcoin is up and buy orders are currently greater than sell orders. Things could have ended up a lot worse for the week, because it wasn't clear to anyone whether bitcoin was going to make a recovery or whether it was going toward $6000 or even lower. Someone on the forum was talking about $3000 even. If bitcoin went that low or even looked like it was going there, you would know there was some hellish momentum behind it. Right now there's none.

leowonderful

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The continued lower lows that we've been achieving on higher timeframes like the daily and weekly definitely isn't a good sign for the bulls (as well as continued lower highs), and it's looking somewhat likely at this point that we're in a channel downwards as every pump seems to bleed off into a newer low. There's still strong support at $6500 holding this up stemming from the breakout earlier this year in May out of the $5k range, which I expect will hold, though.

dark08

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Quote from: wxa7115 on November 27, 2019, 04:58:28 PM

Quote from: cheezcarls on November 26, 2019, 10:40:08 AM

Bitcoin buy positions on Bitfinex have spiked to levels not seen since February. Sell positions, on the other hand, are around their lowest level ever.

After experiencing compounding losses in the past week, Bitcoin rebounded significantly yesterday from a low of $6,600. Now trading at around $7,150, the bulls are trying to push this higher and it appears they have some momentum.

Click here to read the full news

I would like to pay more attention to the word “momentum”.

No matter what “momentum” do they have, it would probably end up as a bull trap in the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today.

I honestly believe that the momentum wouldn’t last long and may not help much to spike Bitcoin’s price once again, even if the buy positions have spiked to high levels. There is no guarantee now that Bitcoin may going to have another bull run soon even if the number of buy positions are growing to its level that we’ve never seen since February.

What happened last February? Even if there’s a high number of buying positions in Bitmex or in other exchanges, there’s not much impact in Bitcoin’s price back then until after the April Fool’s Day where it grown from $4k+ to $6k+, and then up to almost $14k in the middle of this year.

I believe this is a bulls trap as well, the market is showing a slight recovery after the price went down so much so fast, but a slight recovery doesn't mean that the bull market is around the corner, it was completely natural for the price to slightly recover, it is important to see if the price can recover above 8000 which is the next resistance level if that doesn't happen it will not surprising at all if we saw the price going back a price closer to 7000.

However this should be considered to be a great opportunity for those that like to buy bitcoin whenever there is a dip because I really think that we are getting close to the bottom that the price will reach during this year.

Prediction can be right or maybe wrong but what I noticed yesterday is bitcoin dump crazy and bounced again maybe we should wait for a slow down because this is a bear vs bull run attempt.

wxa7115

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Quote from: cheezcarls on November 26, 2019, 10:40:08 AM

Bitcoin buy positions on Bitfinex have spiked to levels not seen since February. Sell positions, on the other hand, are around their lowest level ever.

After experiencing compounding losses in the past week, Bitcoin rebounded significantly yesterday from a low of $6,600. Now trading at around $7,150, the bulls are trying to push this higher and it appears they have some momentum.

Click here to read the full news

I would like to pay more attention to the word “momentum”.

No matter what “momentum” do they have, it would probably end up as a bull trap in the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today.

I honestly believe that the momentum wouldn’t last long and may not help much to spike Bitcoin’s price once again, even if the buy positions have spiked to high levels. There is no guarantee now that Bitcoin may going to have another bull run soon even if the number of buy positions are growing to its level that we’ve never seen since February.

What happened last February? Even if there’s a high number of buying positions in Bitmex or in other exchanges, there’s not much impact in Bitcoin’s price back then until after the April Fool’s Day where it grown from $4k+ to $6k+, and then up to almost $14k in the middle of this year.

I believe this is a bulls trap as well, the market is showing a slight recovery after the price went down so much so fast, but a slight recovery doesn't mean that the bull market is around the corner, it was completely natural for the price to slightly recover, it is important to see if the price can recover above 8000 which is the next resistance level if that doesn't happen it will not surprising at all if we saw the price going back a price closer to 7000.

However this should be considered to be a great opportunity for those that like to buy bitcoin whenever there is a dip because I really think that we are getting close to the bottom that the price will reach during this year.

Oceat

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Quote from: InvoKing on November 27, 2019, 12:42:39 PM

Quote from: aardvark15 on November 27, 2019, 10:34:39 AM

I think people are just buying low while they can. Those of us that truly believe in Bitcoin expect it to increase significantly over the next couple of years. This may be the lowest we see the price drop ever again.

O well, with such volatility i doubt this will be the lowest price ever, at least until the next coming soon halving. By 2021 i expect to not see 1 btc under $10k again

The halving in 2020 probably won't change the price into bullishness because as expected it will occur in 2021 but when is it exactly? Maybe in Q4 of 2021 that might be the start of Bitcoin to the moon trend. With all of this speculation about of the next halving it only spice up the news of Bitcoin to bull run.

El duderino_

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LoL, every dump the question = Is this the sign for bearmarket etc

every pump the question = Is this the sign for bullmarket etc

But most of those people not seems to care about BTC and only about there "FIAT" up/down ....

Please people learn to be BTC and understand why you buy BTC, don't go for a quick buck, or get rich fast opportunity, cause then your busy with the wrong stuff.

exstasie

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Quote from: cheezcarls on November 26, 2019, 10:40:08 AM

Bitcoin buy positions on Bitfinex have spiked to levels not seen since February. Sell positions, on the other hand, are around their lowest level ever.

It's slightly unnerving. Near market bottoms, we often see longs dropping and shorts rising. That suggests decreasing sell pressure (because underwater longs have already been shaken out) and increasing buy pressure (from open shorts). Basically, it sets up a short squeeze situation.

We're seeing the opposite right now. Longs are up 23% over the past 5 days. It's not necessarily bearish; sometimes it just means smart money is accumulating position. The COT is not offering any bullish signals though.

InvoKing

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Quote from: aardvark15 on November 27, 2019, 10:34:39 AM

I think people are just buying low while they can. Those of us that truly believe in Bitcoin expect it to increase significantly over the next couple of years. This may be the lowest we see the price drop ever again.

O well, with such volatility i doubt this will be the lowest price ever, at least until the next coming soon halving. By 2021 i expect to not see 1 btc under $10k again

tomahawk9

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Quote from: harizen on November 26, 2019, 05:02:13 PM

There is no such thing as an accurate sign. Lines and indicators that are supposed to tell that the current trend is a "bull trap" are considered as a false signal.

Well, looks like there actually is, eh? A $800 spike in the price makes me think that such lines aren't always a false signal Roll Eyes

About this surge, looks to me like the capitulation period is over, or at least it's getting close to it (hopefully). Bull trap or not, it's good to see some big ass green candles after such a prolonged downtrend. But still, i'm gonna keep my expectections as low as possible, it's way too early to get excited about this increase in price.

Hamphser

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Quote from: Dart18 on November 27, 2019, 10:52:37 AM

The better one could be it is a sign that they want a cheaper price to buy bitcoin at.

We as low amount buyers will never feel much of it but it is better than nothing right?
Taking a double will be enough for me.
I have bought some bitcoin yesterday, it may be the last cheaper price we can get.
Next time, there could be a new bottom.

New bottom will be coming if there's a FUD created but i think this is just an accumulation phase. Where whales and traders started buying to accumulate it could move the price. So i don't think this is a bull trap because most who bought bitcoin at this price is probably starting to hodl as much as they can.

Dart18

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The better one could be it is a sign that they want a cheaper price to buy bitcoin at.

We as low amount buyers will never feel much of it but it is better than nothing right?
Taking a double will be enough for me.
I have bought some bitcoin yesterday, it may be the last cheaper price we can get.
Next time, there could be a new bottom.

Quidat

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Quote from: el kaka22 on November 27, 2019, 09:28:50 AM

Thankfully, I believe it is not really a bull trap, we have seen a lot of people selling their coins and right now we are not at a stage where it could realistically go any lower for a trap, a trap would require price to go down a bit before going up so that people who want profit could make it go down, buy cheap and then improve the price insanely to profit, we are at the part where we are already as low as it gets before it gets crushed.

If we go any lower (like under 6.5k for example) we may end up at 3.4k or whatever once again which we can't really sustain anymore, we have done that before and went as high as 14k in the end, doing the same thing over and over again costs the smaller investors a lot of money and time so a lot more people will give up next time.

If the price had breakdown lots of supports then it wont really be consider to be a bull trap.We arent still on the phase where we do able to see such one
yet weve been tanking for too long on 7k price levels and it do even go down.Moving neither both sides 5-10% on a day isnt really a new thing which
it do really look like a typical day here on crypto but there were people who do easily react and made wrong presumptions on what they do currently
seeing on the price.

aardvark15

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I think people are just buying low while they can. Those of us that truly believe in Bitcoin expect it to increase significantly over the next couple of years. This may be the lowest we see the price drop ever again.

el kaka22

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Thankfully, I believe it is not really a bull trap, we have seen a lot of people selling their coins and right now we are not at a stage where it could realistically go any lower for a trap, a trap would require price to go down a bit before going up so that people who want profit could make it go down, buy cheap and then improve the price insanely to profit, we are at the part where we are already as low as it gets before it gets crushed.

If we go any lower (like under 6.5k for example) we may end up at 3.4k or whatever once again which we can't really sustain anymore, we have done that before and went as high as 14k in the end, doing the same thing over and over again costs the smaller investors a lot of money and time so a lot more people will give up next time.

SaShiRaJaVu

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Quote from: fabiorem on November 27, 2019, 08:18:58 AM

For me its all bull trap unless the price is above $12k.

I have seen this term thrown around this forum recently "bull trap", but was the current situation a bull trap, the market was trying to break some resistance level and it was finding it hard to cross those levels and the market went down, there was no indication that the market was going up nor shown any signs of a bull run to say that it was a bull trap. I am waiting for to see how the market will perform by the end of this year and then i will have my analysis.

Topic: Is this a sign of the next Bitcoin bull run? Or just another bull trap? (Read 370 times)