Topic: Is this math right? - page 2. (Read 3275 times)

LOL  But I look back on my bitcoin interests and when I started I managed to _buy_ a bitcoin by going to Walmart and getting a money transfer or something, back when even with the fees the bitcoin cost me like $27 and it wasn't long before I sold a single bitcoin and bought a 3 foot Samsung Smart TV.  Loving it I bought a ztex that was way over priced, then thumb asics, and then a Mercury - I was riding  high and added another card to the Merc.  I had been completely duped by MtGox as safe and lost maybe half my bitcoins.  Then S3's, S3+'s, C1's and an S5.  But I never really knew my true electric costs and was busily caught up in keeping them running.  Then I did the math and discovered my electric utility had different rates for winter and summer and found I was running at a loss.  I had always kept my winter heating bills low, turning off the heat when I'd be out and dropping it way down at night, never mind the long underware throughout winter months.  A thing that is when heating with bitcoin miners, one really doesn't want to shut them down and light them up every time one goes shopping so some are running at a loss when it isn't smart.  And the 113 difficulty - and Eligius having a round time of 59 hours right now and the last was 2 days at least, things are tough.  But I love the TV.

Oh, forgot I prepaid for a jalapeno then waited and waited and waited and when it arrived its hashrate was just a little inside the low hashrate return product acceptance - like they begrudged sending out products to those who prepaid and sent the better to friends and new buyers at a huge markup - and at that point when the Jalapeno arrived it was just about at break even.

The next batch of Antminer S7 at 3 cents/kwh is VERY VERY iffy on if it will ever achieve a positive ROI.

 10% diff increase seems to be a conservative LOW SIDE estimate for diff increases up to the halfing, then I expect to see a short-term dip as some folks shut down their no-longer-even-CLOSE-to-profitable old gear, then it will probably start rising again.
 How much it will climb depends a lot on how soon the 14/16NM generation hits full production at the manufacturers, and how fast they can make those units.

Is my above post accurate?

That said right now, even at 0.03 used per kW. Avalon 6 and ant miner s7 are never profitable...

If I had to pick single figures I would go for 8% for each 14 Day difficulty period up to the halving in July. Then after that 5%. I would hope that these numbers are a bit high, but who knows what Spondoolies & Bitfury etc are going to be deploying?

Rich

What would a good example be for difficulty change over 12 months? 20% per month seems High.

than if it is only an hobby why he don't go with s3, much cheaper

also s7 is sold for $1250 right now, i'm sure you can find someone that sell an used unit for $1k

As I mentioned OP appears to be gone I think we can let this thread die.  But you must have missed his top electricity at "$0.32/kWh" which is very very high.  Were talking so high it makes it hard to mine at all.

If he runs anything he will want most current he can get.  Do the math on S5 running at that electricity you will see it is not good at all. 

It is hobby mining for him. He can only afford S5. S7 costs more than $1000, that is too expensive.

I have a feeling we can let this thread die. I don't think OP is coming back he signed up asked question and has not been back:

Date Registered:    January 03, 2016, 09:47:09 PM
Last Active:    January 03, 2016, 10:18:12 PM

I would guess he did the math and decided not to do it.  But that is speculation.

@OP,
Why don't you go for a single s7 which gives you higher TH/s with greater efficiency and lesser consumption???
The math you are showing is based on older machines which means that there is no guarantee that you can profit with the amount of miners you are going to use, as the electricity is higher at your place, and most importantly, it is associated with your ROI period...

Some year perhaps I'll be able to get into coinwarz more than about once a month, they have HORRIBLE issues just flat out timing out entirely when i've tried to access their site for any reason.

 I've NEVER seen that issue with bitcoinwisdom, my only issues there (currently) are 1) they haven't updated their Litecoin calculator for the block halfing 2) a lot of their market links don't work right.

he have 0.32 in electricity, it could be only profitable with a s7 not with a s5, which the consumption would be $150 against a $60 of earning per month

huge loss each month if he begin to mine with that ancient asic

Coin warz is great for current difficulty but horrible for long term. Use https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator it allows difficulty change over time.

This adds up and really makes a difference if you use coinwarz and times it out your numbers ill be massively off.

Don't listen the liars above, they're just trying to keep the profits to themselves!!!

Go ahead and start mining, live like a king! I got into mining in 2012 and now I've got a Ferrari, a Tesla, and I live in a mansion, all thanks to bitcoin mining! Anyone with a half brain should buy mining gear and start minting money right away. Do Not Wait!!

It seems like you haven't got the math right! You can always use coinwarz to check your values and do your math:

http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator

 The issue isn't that you can't make money NOW, the issue is being able to make ENOUGH money to pay back the cost of the hardware you buy before it becomes unprofitable.

 You messed up on your calc, 34 PH is 34000 TH not 3400 TH so based on your assumptions your income would be more like $26 / month (this is somewhat low, Slush normally finds more like 5-6 blocks a day not 3).

 Based on your assumptions and a CORRECTED calculation, you're LOSING over $100/month



 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator is probably the best calculator out there, can account for difficulty increases (though you have to guess what they'll average long-term) and many other factors.

 I show you LOSING over $2/day right now at 32 cents/kWH electric on an S5 with ZERO pool cost, profit of about 8 cents per DAY right now at 16cent/kWH electric but that profit evaporates as soon as the difficulty kicks up 8-9% more than the price does (probably in a bit over a week at the next diff adjustment, pretty much definitely at the diff adjustment after that).

 At current difficulty, an S5 will earn a bit over 0.13 Bitcoin/MONTH.



 I'm pretty sure the S5 is going to become unprofitable before the halfing, unless you have FREE electric, but it might be close if your electric is in the 3 Cents/KWH range.
 Definitely still usefull as a space heater though. 8-)

no margin with the s5 anymore, the consumption is around $22 and the earning is only 3x that, which mean that by the halving it will be useless, if not before due to the diff increase

this assuming the classic 0.05 cent per hour, i'm not counting free electricity, because only few people own it, surely not big farm...

At 17 cents you only chance is S7/Avalon 6.  You would mine and sell.  That is only way I see you possibly profiting.  And if you do go up to 32.... you stand no chance.

You can get hosting done much much cheaper somewhere then 32 cent's.  I would say 10 cents or less, I suggest looking at this as 32 cent's is just horrible.

yea I think your math was off somewhere.  Here is a good tool to do the math for you...
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

I plugged in the numbers at your electricity price of 32 cents per kWh and it looks like you are unprofitable from the moment you plug it in.  It looks like anything over 17 cents is currently unprofitable for the S5.