Actually Bitcoin's inflation in coin supply is about 10% per year.
After the halving event, the inflation will be about 5% per year.
That means: Objectively, the halving should drive the prices up about 5% per year. The rest is hype - we're already up more than 50% from 2016's low.
that's not how math works
seriously, that's not how math works at all.
Yeah, keep in denial and enlighten me how math works. "To da moon" is a mathematical statement?
Sure, you can include speculation about the proportion of the Bitcoin that are sold on exchanges that come from miners. If all or a large proportion of the coins that are sold on exchanges come from miners, than you would be right.
OK, let's check this. Coinmarketcap says that we had a 24-hour trading volume of 63,887,000 USD for BTC (and that's even without the Chinese "no-trading-fees" exchanges!). This are >110000 BTC. There are ~ 3600 BTC generated per day by miners. Not a very large proportion.
again your math is horribly flawed.
Those 110000 bitcoin traded are not really 110000 bitcoin, it's just a few 1000 bitcoin that is traded back and forth.
If person A buys 10 bitcoin from person B, and then person B sell them to person C, then that's 20 bitcoin in volume already, even though there's only 10 bitcoin at the exchange.
those 3600 mined bitcoins once they hit the exchange can produce much more than 3600 bitcoin worth of volume.
Especially since most trading is done by scripts, so many trades are made each minute, so really, 3600 fresh bitcoins can make quite an impact.
And the calculation you made about the 10% inflation to 5% inflation, therefore price increase by 5% each year is just as bad, because these things are unrelated.