Topic: Is this the reason the bitcoin price has not exploded yet in 2014? (Read 2068 times)

This would likely not be possible with a strong degree of certainty. You need to remember that not all bitcoin that passes through an exchange will go to their cold wallet/cold storage. It would be very well possible that someone selling bitcoin on say btc-e would deposit their bitcoin to their deposit address and then someone who recently purchased bitcoin would withdraw their newly purchased bitcoin and the inputs from the previous person's deposit address would be used to fund the transaction

The problem with POS is that it tends towards centralization as it scales as well. Because running a node has a fixed cost (one that increases as the network increases) increasingly only the largest shareholders remain profitable while running a node. 

Maybe we will se that within 2015.

That should be possible to some extent: exchange addresses can be guesstimated through taint analysis, and funds from miners are trivial to identify.

However there would be some significant bias as funds traded on an exchange don't necessarily leave that exchange, only a small fractions does through withdrawals and arbitrage bots, and the transactions within an exchange are not visible on the blockchain.

Also you would have heavy background "noise" from exchanges "withdrawing" to cold wallets or consolidating coins for auditing purposes, which on first analysis might be difficult to differentiate from investors withdrawing from an exchange.

But it might be possible to devise some rough indicator, hmmm...

very good point you are raising there regarding the bitcoin
not so sure about bitsharesx tho.. There are plenty of other POS coins with their features that are useful

I wonder, is it possible to analyze the blockchain to get an idea of the average age of coins being bought/sold right now on exchanges compared to the overall average age of bitcoins? It might be possible, for example, to determine that most selling right now is by miners needing to pay their bills, while most investors are sitting tight. That would provide some insight as to what happens as the mining scene shakes itself out, as I do think it's overheating a bit (pardon the pun).

why did you double up on the threads and new users?

I think the awakening will come when say, Bitcoin reaches 30 billion, and something like the BitShares products reach say, 5 billion dollars collectively. Then not only will bitcoin be spending 2-3 billion dollars a year on mining, but a comparatively tiny market share system like BitShares would by comparison be using the fees from transactions to pay something like 10% interest on deposits and several hundred thousand dollars to each of the couple hundred delegates that help develop and promote the ecosystem.

Interesting. Indeed there are some really big problems with POW,  it will takes some time to really see it, a lot of people are in denial but sooner or later it will be so obvious that it could not be ignored anymore.

We had some mayor players entering on the merchant side, eg. Dell and not enough "new" adoptors of BTC

This has created a vibrant "spending spree" amongst existing BTC users, which pushed the demand for BTC down. {Over supply on exchanges} and thus a reduction in the price of BTC

It will take some time to absorb those coins, from the daily transaction volumes, but as new people adopt BTC the demand would increase and the price will go up again.

Merchants can speed up this process, by offering discounts on products being bought with BTC to encourage people, to convert to BTC payment, rather than tradisional fiat/debit/credit card type payments. 

The market will correct it self over time. 

I don't disagree with most of what you say.... Its just not relevant.  I think where you are getting caught up is that you think the $650 million needs to be in the exchanges.

Lets just say for a simple example, that the miners spend all $650 million they earn in rewards on ASICS and electricity(Of course this is not true, but change the math to 80% later if you wish). They spent 650m, and they received 650m worth of bitcoin. Said another way, the miners just bought 650 million worth of bitcoin.  

The difference is, if they put that 650 mill on the exchanges, and have to buy of willing sellers, that will drive the price up.   So the bitcoin holders (you and I) pay for it with the price not rising as fast as if those rewards were not in place.

I hope that helps.

People who ignore this problem are in denial.

Nice video, Satoshi didn't have an army of enthusiasts to put DPOS into practice or the vast resources and backing that 2.0 companies like bitshares have. I guess halving the reward will eventually sort this problem out but at 4 years between cuts its going to take some time!

All the things going around... it's hard to believe and not believ... But the general assumption is...yes.

I agree that at the next halving prices will change for the better. But at the last halving nothing much changed for quite a while. It will be interesting to watch in summer 2016.

Frankly' explanation is a good one too.  Prices are set at the margin.

the video has no clue

although he is right about the volume of bitcoin creation.. he is wrong about the fiat valuation.. exchanges do not hold all 13million coins thus far mined.. not by a long shot...

there maybe only about 100k coins on exchanges these days, and all split up into small orders on the sell wall. the price comes to fruituin based not on 13mill coins, nor 21mill coins nor 1,314,000 coins.

but based those sell orders. after all if no one will sell below $5000 the price would be at $5000 as the only sells shown on the markt history woould be at $5000. even if 0.01btc was ever sold in a whole year on the markets at that price. the market history would still show that as the only price.

even if there was a large spread (gap) that had buyers demanding $460, and there were millions of people with buy orders at $460, because no bitcoin was being sold at that price, the only market trade would stil be at $5000..

so again ill explain differently. if everyone hoarded coins so the sell wall was empty, and only one seller with 0.01btc sold at $5000, then the market would then value all 13million bitcoins at $5000.

now, then that has kind of explained 'resistance points' bcause everyone with bitcoin is trying their damned hardest not to sell below $500 right now as that is the average costs to them. and only a few foolish whales are selling below the resistance point. once these whales stop playing their games. the price will naturally climb back up.

now that said. people on the buying side cannot place a order unless they have dollars in their exchange balance. and instead of buying 0.001btc at $5000 they prefer to keep their buy orders at 0.01btc at $500 (getting 10x as much satoshi dust for their $500)

now if these whales are selling bitcoin and cashing out(withdrawing to fiat bank account). they are taking away potential dollar holdings of daytraders thus depleting the amount of dollars people can play with trading back and forth.

this causes day traders to either slow down their day trading tactics as there is less dollars 'in the pot' to play with, thus they hoard and wait out the storm. or they decide to sell at a loss as they are desperate to get old of fiat.

to be honest i laugh at anyone selling at a loss, due to panic, desperation, emotion. as they are the ones holding the bitcoins and they have all the control, yet they give up control too easily.

what everyone holding bitcoins (who is smart and doesnt rely on their emotions) should do, is cancel all their sell orders at $470-$600 and then place all of their sell orders at $600+

of course there will be a few emotional, panicky types that need fiat ASAP so just let them sell at a loss, and when they have sold off their coin then the only coins being sold is $600+

it does not need $650mill to cause a price change. there is not even $6billion of fiat in bank accounts for bitcoin.. there is probably only $50mill in fiat in any one exchange (to cover the 100k coin market volume(MARKET VOLUME not bitcoin cap))

the bitcoin cap is not based on bank account balances but based on the market volume(100k coin) price that is used as a valuation GUIDE for all coins. FIAT DOES NOT BACK BITCOIN

I'm not entirely convinced by this hypothesis.  If mining were to end then Bitcoin would likely enter into a velocity crisis, as people would hoard it to the grave, and this would destroy confidence in Bitcoin by the general public

Middle of 2016

When is the next halving?

Totally agree Gleb,

When the rewards halve I think we will see a massive rise in price, just like last time.  But that won't solve the problem of an inefficient consensus algorithm.

The room will still be there for Bitcoin to break free of this shackle, once a better algois found and proven.