Topic: Is trading just educated guessing? - page 29. (Read 22912 times)
For trading, you do not necessarily need insider information, you can watch the news yourself and analyze the exchange rate. There is nothing complicated in this, only time and patience are needed.
Trading is trying to predict the future, and placing a bet on what will happen. Without a Time Machine it's impossible to "know" what will happen in the future - unless you have "inside information" about an upcoming event.
So all one can do is choose what is "most likely" to happen, based on the past behavior patterns on the chart. In my opinion, the most reliable thing to place bets on is The Trend, for whatever time frame you're trading.
The Trend is your "edge" - which means your odds of being correct are better than 50-50.
So all one can do is choose what is "most likely" to happen, based on the past behavior patterns on the chart. In my opinion, the most reliable thing to place bets on is The Trend, for whatever time frame you're trading.
The Trend is your "edge" - which means your odds of being correct are better than 50-50.
It depends on your knowledge and strategy.But most of the time it requires LUCK.Sometimes even if you are strategic you do not have the luck to make a good profit.
No doubt you may need some luck as you do not want to buy in the wrong coin at the wrong time. However, with little experience and ability to analyse charts, you can still make good buy ins in crypto. I do not see much difference in forex trading and crypto trading except for the huge volatility which in itself is even a plus. If you want to be safe, do not gamble in trading most especially if you have no single idea what you are doing.
Not only guessing. Trading need knowledge and some skill to make decisions whatever to buy or to sold it. When some one only use guessing that make trading is more just like gambling.
For trading is not a educated guessing its a skill that is something that we all don't have, trading is easy to say but its not easy to become a good trader.
It is not about he education my mate if you are having the skills you will be able to increase your money and you will guide the people about the use of the bitcoin. The currency of the bitcoin will make the high place in the market and it will be very good for the people who are good at the skills of the trading the investing bitcoin is all about the time having so if you are patient enough to hold your bitcoin for the long time then it is good for us to invest in bitcoin.
Nice planning, but the Law of large numbers overrules everything. i.e. In a large sample size, unknown no. of consecutive losses is possible for whatever probability. There are people on this website who have posted that no matter how thorough your price analysis, your entry into a trade is never better than 50-50. These people are not traders.
Yes, trading is educated guessing, meaning you've educated yourself about certain facets of market behavior and are prepared to act when the conditions are met.
For example, you've noticed that over two years' analysis of equities' price behavior following important news reports that whenever a heavily shorted stock breaks through a major previous resistance level it runs another 2% or more 95% of the time. You decide to place standing buy stops above the last major swing high of every liquid stock that has a short interest greater than 20%. That is an educated guess that will likely produce consistent profits for you when combined with prudent risk management principles.
For example, you've noticed that over two years' analysis of equities' price behavior following important news reports that whenever a heavily shorted stock breaks through a major previous resistance level it runs another 2% or more 95% of the time. You decide to place standing buy stops above the last major swing high of every liquid stock that has a short interest greater than 20%. That is an educated guess that will likely produce consistent profits for you when combined with prudent risk management principles.
For trading is not a educated guessing its a skill that is something that we all don't have, trading is easy to say but its not easy to become a good trader.
No, I imagine that in the trade there was a profit you need to have to keep track of the info, and not count on luck. Individuals who guess in trade can remain without having cash as effectively as in gambling.
Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
Not at all. Trading with bitcoin requires you to follow the price flow, current events that might change the price and also a little luck.
Also applicable to altcoins as well.
Well, you know, bitcoin et al. is just like money invested in stock market, you can never really pinpoint the exact trend of its rise and fall. But yeah, current events can greatly affect the trading. Remember when china banned the use of bitcoin? Its price went down for how many days. The more people invest in bitcoin, the market gets stronger. So it's not all about guessing but for me it is more of educated play.
Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
What does that insider information you're referring to?. Does this means conflict of interest on the one of the admin or creator of a trading platform. Or it just that is was not properly interpreted as knowledge beforehand or experienced in Lehman terms. In trading you can't just jump around without learning to read how the charts give hints and the reaction of the fellow members.
It depends on your knowledge and strategy.But most of the time it requires LUCK.Sometimes even if you are strategic you do not have the luck to make a good profit.
I am more on the side of using hard work rather than luck. I mean if you work hard to know and learn about the statistics, trends, and other useful knowledge then you will get what you deserve. Luck is like saying you just got there you reach what you have now or earn what you have now because you are just a one lucky person.
Education or let's say knowledge is very important in this business. But I think that is just one factor that comprises the idea of trading. You have to be and always consistent in updating or checking on sudden changes, economy and other factora that njght affect the market. In all times i think instinct plays a vital role as well and it can only be developed thru experiences, learning from trial and error , from failures.
It depends on your knowledge and strategy.But most of the time it requires LUCK.Sometimes even if you are strategic you do not have the luck to make a good profit.
With no edge it is double edge sword. You will gonna to damage your self..
Trading in my opinion is double edged sword when you are involving expensive coins such as bitcoins. I never suggest trading with bitcoins. Trading is meant for altcoins; even if you go in loss with altcoins it is quite recoverable. But on the whole, we all know that trading is not for everyone and only few people are able to make profits in trading.
As a day trader in both crypto and equity, let me tell you this, we are betting that we can get rid of whatever we buy at a higher price in the least amount of time. We can limit our risk with stop loss, options and ...... but ultimately we are buying low and selling high. That's all, there is not secret formula or advance knowledge for 95% of us, and the other 5% will have SEC knocking at the the door..... What we know as day traders is excatly as what you know, but it is our experience that makes us different. Crypto has a lower entry level(around 5k) compare to most exchanges, in US the minimum is 25k capital (yes, you can do 10k for a regular margin account, but PDT is a pain to avoid), so your losses are minimal.
There are two main types of trading, medium to long-term trading know as swing trading and short-term trading known as scalping.
Educated guessing could be considered part of both, but not the whole of what is involved in trading. Swing trading decisions are made on the basis of either fundamental for technical analysis. Weighing up the information you have and making an informed guess as to where price might go. But you need to add to that risk management, defining a stop loss and target profit for your trade, deciding how much of your trading capital you want to put at risk.
Scalping is very short-term trading with trades lasting from a few seconds to a few minutes at most. This is based on watching order flow and making instant decisions that can only come from a lot of experience of studying markets. It's still an educated guess but the more you do it the better you will get at it. In both cases, traders have to accept that they can't be right every time, taking losses is a part of trading. The key thing is to make sure your average winner is bigger than your average loser.
Educated guessing could be considered part of both, but not the whole of what is involved in trading. Swing trading decisions are made on the basis of either fundamental for technical analysis. Weighing up the information you have and making an informed guess as to where price might go. But you need to add to that risk management, defining a stop loss and target profit for your trade, deciding how much of your trading capital you want to put at risk.
Scalping is very short-term trading with trades lasting from a few seconds to a few minutes at most. This is based on watching order flow and making instant decisions that can only come from a lot of experience of studying markets. It's still an educated guess but the more you do it the better you will get at it. In both cases, traders have to accept that they can't be right every time, taking losses is a part of trading. The key thing is to make sure your average winner is bigger than your average loser.
With no edge it is double edge sword. You will gonna to damage your self..
Trading in my opinion is double edged sword when you are involving expensive coins such as bitcoins. I never suggest trading with bitcoins. Trading is meant for altcoins; even if you go in loss with altcoins it is quite recoverable. But on the whole, we all know that trading is not for everyone and only few people are able to make profits in trading.
The price of cryptocurrency is very difficult to analyze. Those traders who say that make a successful deal thanks to his analytical mind lying. In the market of cryptocurrencies can be earned only through luck.
I guess somehow I agree about your opinion because even we use our critical thinking capacity about the factors that might help us in trading I think it is still divided in half mind and luck. We are all familiar that when trading we must know the risk and even though we know it we still do it because we're hoping to be lucky. Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?
a little bit of it i guess but there are a lot of factors to consider when it comes to trading, knowledge is included and you also need high technical skills in analyzing the market surrounding the bitcoin.Jump to: