Topic: it easy for bitcoin hit 1 million dollar without lies/bullshit -- sharp logic (Read 493 times)

3x the current size of the gold market actually seems possible to me, though I'm sure it sounds crazy to others. They aren't considering how much value Bitcoin might swallow up from other assets.

Anyone remember how the gold/oz price acted roughly as the top in 2013? I wonder if the gold market cap might act as a similar psychological barrier in the next bubble. Depending on timing, that'll be $300-400K.

Simplest calculation for this is the fact that if each bitcoin becomes 1 million then the whole of bitcoin (including all of 21 million coins when they are mined) will be worth 21 trillion dollars. You can check any market you want, stocks, golds, forex and whatever else you want and compare the size of those things to crypto as well and figure out if crypto will be that big.

I am not going to say it will be that big or it won't be that big, I just want to show you the path to calculate how much one bitcoin should worth by comparing it to other investment methods. People have been using other methods of investment for centuries so you would have time to calculate how they got up and become big as well so you can actually see if bitcoin is on track of becoming even bigger or not as well.

At least someone gets it.

1 million dollars is a complete logical price. There is not enough bitcoin for everybody, and even if we have only 21 million users, the whales still will hold most of those coins.

The price is so low right now thanks to those who want to sell it at that price.

I actually don't entirely agree with this section of your post.

While it is true and universally recognized that supply and demand is what ultimately shapes the market clearing price, there is no indication (or rather, guarantee) that demand for BTC will grow at such an astronomical rate over the next few years. Also, your comparison of BTC to rare diamonds doesn't make the most sense either.

Furthermore, in terms of your statement about supply, that's not necessarily true either. It really doesn't matter whether bitcoin's supply is 21 million, 2.1 million, or 210,000. An increase in demand should still result in the same percentage gain, if you get what I'm saying.


This part, I definitely agree with.

Once merchants start adopting BTC on a large scale, I think that there will be significantly less downward pressure on BTC as people are capable of now fulfilling their needs without needing to move out of this asset, leading to less supply.

Another point that needs to be mentioned is the long term depreciating nature of fiat currencies, which means that even if demand of BTC stays relatively the same, assuming all else equal, there should be an increase in nominal BTC prices - since it has a capped supply and therefore is a long term store of value. However, when will hyperinflation come, nobody knows.

Well FIAT is still overvalued so BTC price rising is a real value appreciation at the moment.    I think too large a movement will be placing it under pressure to either perform in growth or on price.  
    In a hyper inflation environment I'd agree with you, what happens is prices rise to compensate for the loss in unit denominator.   Marc Faber did a lecture on Mexico's currency crisis (years ago) with the conclusion being stock holders didnt lose or gain anything over the period of instability, the price rises they saw just adjusted out to an equal value at the end of period study to match the start.   This isnt profit but at least they survived I guess.

Gold bugs dont really often say this but the ultimate projection for gold's price changes is to do the same, its value matches not exceeds inflation.   Its not a growth asset, you dont get rich exactly owning it but at least retain what you bought.   The exception of course always with every price, if you can observe and buy the dips and sell the peaks then you gain on your trading ability but thats not investment or economic comparative exactly.   [A gold stock is not the same dynamic, leveraged management and will give profit over plain commodity, ditto a BTC company could profit even while price dropped I suppose depending on arbitrage]

 

BTC wont take from gold market share.  I dont think gold really has a proper market share at present, its in an accumulation stage that might preceed its monetary usage but thats speculation.   I see both crypto and gold growing in replacement of the giant elephant in the room which is US dollar unpinning the majority of the worlds trade.   Delibrately it is the global reserve currency, Keynes actually objected to this policy at the original Bretton Woods for the reasons we are seeing now I think.  Unfortunately he died not long after from a weak heart and all we hear of his name, is the idea QE is just fine which is a mistake on his policy afaik   (ie. QE & surplus budgets not just debt as we've seen for a decade)

Gold or anything if used genuinely more in future then now will see actual value increases.   Thats why Im more excited about BTC being a fast usable and simple to navigate network, if its not advancing as a protocol (or possibly secondary companies but mostly the protocol) I grow more bearish as I believe something else will meet the majority of the population in that need.  Pioneer products can be replaced if they dont innovate.


I dont know about lies and BS but the entire story for the path to 1 million is a long and winding road.   I do hope BTC stays on that road but I think its a dam bumpy and treacherous road, the price is not the most important part of that journey if its going to make it and its secondary to stability, durability really.


Good website to follow actual value changes I think, at least in this measure and it has crypto in there as well:  https://pricedingold.com/   

One can see it as a rise in fiat price or a fall in fiat values against bitcoin. The difference between what you see will dictate whether you will still be holding any when it eventually crosses $1m.

I agree fiat systems are unsustainable but I disagree with the last statement. Bitcoin is going up way faster than any major fiat money is being devalued.

I strongly believe it's being speculated upon based primarily on its monetary properties. Inflation and fear of fiat currency collapse play some role, but Bitcoin's price will be marked up regardless.

But you forget the fiat debt crisis, your comments make a lot of sense in a healthy world economy - which it is anything but. The only thing keeping economies afloat is an unlimited supply of fiat that just gets added to debt that will never be paid back. It is the epitome of insanity, and is not sustainable. What we are seeing isn't bitcoin values rising - it is fiat values falling against it.

Everyone has their price, as an argument is simple but hard to really counter.   I tend to agree that genuine growth in price is going to come from a trio of factors building rather then singular stack of just speculative activity which ultimately makes the price action volatile, unstable and more likely to fall from poor support.    BTC isnt a backyard water fight anymore, we got giant capital flows and leverage ready aimed to be bought into force against the price.   For profit of course, markets will do this and its correct however you feel about BTC it has to stand up for itself.
    I do imagine anything fake about BTC will eventually end up demolished long term all long with alot of other nonsense in markets, bad loans, etc

The real justification for BTC will come from a growing population who can utilise its advantages for their own convenience and it must be easy to use and ideally not expensive (for the smallest people, Bitcoin should never forget the little 'bits').   I'm not biased against any crypto but just about everything comes down to efficiency and free markets work to destroy inefficient processes, so I dont imagine this BTC dream of higher prices is occurring without genuine advance.  Its a pipe dream and you can only smoke what you grow and harvest first :p

thus, "extreme example".

there will always be people taking profit, distributing after price rises. i'm just talking about what happens during bubbles: most of the BTC on fiat exchange order books disappears until the top is in. this facilitates huge price rises.

people always say bitcoin's price growth will slow down at higher valuations because "more money is needed push prices up". they assume there is always some static number of BTC waiting to be sold and thus it will take more USD to buy them. i'm saying that's not necessarily true. there may simply be much less BTC on the ask side to buy. it's not just demand that causes bubbles, but lack of supply.

There are many bitcoin holders but do you really think most of them will stick with it? No, once bitcoin will reach price which will let people to get some profit, they'll sell it without thinking. At some point that's good, why to stone money? If we won't use money and put it in one place, how will economy develop? To my mind money (and yeah, bitcoin is money) has to be in circulation and natural price growth will be better than that one.

Bitcoin cannot be stable at $1,000,000 for long term but it can fluctuate along that line if the populace adopts it as money and we become familiar with us. Currently, we do see people selling often but that did not change things if the market decided to remain strong. For bitcoin to be worthwhile people must be able to sell and buy it on a regular based and the demand and supply should be the determining factors.

Sure it's competing with other assets, gold for instance. It will take from their market share.

Dollar value is getting halved pretty quickly anyway due to inflation, so your assumption is fair enough. If it takes 10-20 years to get to $1 million, I wouldn't be surprised if my dollars only went half as far. That's still $500K in today's dollars.

Nothing moves in isolation is the main point to counter that, if Bitcoin is rising alot its for reasons elsewhere and dollar is likely dropping alot.    BTC has to compete with many other forms of currency trade that might do as well or better in holding value.
   I do agree BTC is very unique and has good reasons why it will continue to be used but also I dont think it goes up by itself as if the only shooting star in the sky.   We are witnessing a solar storm if BTC gets to $1m and a dollar will likely have more then halved by then also.    Revolution can happen, I'm not saying no this cant happen but we're missing 90% of the story to only look at price and theres going to be so many different effects in play.


I wont say useless, but market cap is reflecting a long term measure and contains quite illiquid holdings that might only come into play when we go into an entire company takeover if it was stocks market cap for example.   Market cap is most relevant when we can measure liquidity and which holdings are being exchanged every quarter at least.   BTC has a ton of addresses that never move, I'm not clear if they are including those in market cap when I would not.

You are not wrong about that.
It all relies on demand.

It is not just because of the low supply, we can also consider the lost bitcoins that will not be back anymore. There is just no way to recover them anymore.
Good thing also is no one controls it, so we don't need to bloat the number of it in order to supply the others.
That just works on ICO using ERC20 methods.

$1m may be briefly touched then dumped down, you are right. But just like every time before, it will end up surpassing this amount - and by a lot - in the future. Open your mind ffs, stop allowing it to be limited.

Firstly, saying that Bitcoin can't reach a certain high number is wrong. We have a decade showing that nothing is impossible in Bitcoin land. People placing long term bets against Bitcoin will pay the price for it, very much so. Those not investing in it because they think we've seen the best of Bitcoin already will lose out big time.

Secondly, who are you to decide whether we need a $1 million Bitcoin price or not? Higher price means more liquidity, more financial freedom to those owning it, more job creation due to more investment possibilities, more secure network, etc. I see only benefits in having a higher price. Weird that you don't.

1 million can be briefly touched because of those reasons, but it can't be sustained for long - someone will sell, and then others will sell, people will start fearing becoming a bagholder, and will sell even at a loss. The last time it happened with $20k price, who knows what will be the next peak - 100k or 1 million, or maybe even something as low as 40k. But to get sustainable 1 million per coin, the demand should be huge, and it shouldn't be speculative demand.

How the fuck do you know? I hate posts where people say shit can't happen. Nothing is impossible with bitcoin.
The example of comparing diamonds is a very poor one. Diamonds are something people buy to look pretty, they have no real uses beyond that. Bitcoins serve many uses THAT ARE PRICE-IRRELEVANT. This is the one fact that keeps getting ignored. Just a couple examples; a $1m bitcoin enables someone to move value peer to peer across borders and store their wealth in a deflationary vs an inflationary one just as well as a $10k bitcoin. The person may not have a whole bitcoin, but it doesn't fucking matter - the purposes are met just the same! In comparison, nobody would buy diamonds if the price were $1m/diamond so it would never happen. Compare diamonds to precious metals, the price of luxury watches, plastic surgery or hotel prices in vacation areas - not bitcoin.

For many years a $10k bitcoin was thought of as impossible. Now that the impossible has happened, anyone who thinks a $1m bitcoin is impossible is a narrow minded fool. Everything remains the same, the only difference is 2 zeros - it is absolutely NOT impossible.