Topic: it was obvious (Read 396 times)

Well, I did expect a much better constructed post, especially coming from a Legendary member, on the other hand, I did get your point on what you are trying to prove and I am indeed on your side whenever things like this occur. I really do not get the reason why a lot of people are still trying to find out why there is a pump and dump in BTC's price, it is just super obvious that this is the normal movement of BTC, and that the price moves this way unaccordingly, so I think that there is no need to panic sell and panic buy, BTC is volatile as it is, keep calm.

Well that would be true for the current situation but in general, i would agree that manipulation is quite obvious throughout 2018 so far. Though that's one thing we really can't do anything about since whales and high holders are pretty much untouchable in this market

Yeah ETH/BTC broke a long term trend around 055-056, so it was a clear short.

Anyway, the point is not about who is dumping in particular, it's just about the direction of money flow. When ICOs are filling their coffers off exuberant speculators when times are bullish, of course they are a big source of supply during the bear market that always follows. (Though I'm sure quite a few underwater investors sold into the altcoin massacre over the past few days )


All else equal (i.e. demand is consistent), less supply = higher price. For price change, you need one element (supply or demand) to go out of balance. If supply dries up on exchanges, but price doesn't rise, it means demand has fallen as well.

in my opinion the price of bitcoin will not fall to the price of 5-4k, when the price has touched 6k the price of bitcoin will rise again. the lowest bitcoin price this year is 6k.

there is something that should be noted and that is the question of Who is investing in altcoin? is it someone from outside of the market not involved with any kind of cryptocurrency who comes in and invests in altcoins as his first involvement in this market
or is it those who have bitcoin and are now seeking ways to increase that bitcoin and try out alternatives?

it is surely the later which means the BTC that went into altcoin market may have stayed in their wallets if there were no altcoin market.
also i should point out that "less asks" is not equal to "higher price"! higher price still requires demand or more buys actually happening. for instance if right now you remove all the asks from bitcoin market price won't move up above $6100 because there still is nobody brave enough to buy while they are dumping

here is the difference, bitcoin is unique in its own way. it is the first (as people like to remind us every now and then with their topics), and it is the biggest. it is the only network that has been working properly with the highest hashrate, security, number of nodes, miners, merchants,... and thousands of other things....
Etheruem is just another altcoin. it is not even unique or good among its competitors. there are better smart contract platforms than Ethereum out there which are easier to use, cheaper (less cost of smart contract creation), not congested, and are more decentralized!

they have repeated the "bitcoin versus ethereum" so many times that we all lost sight that ethereum is in reality competing with a dozen other platforms that are better than it, not with bitcoin which is not even in the same category as ETH!

It's a bit different in this case. It's not just speculators dumping the price down, but mainly projects (ICO's) trying to save what's left of their raised initial value. I noticed how the wallets of ICO projects were declining for a couple of weeks, where every time it happened, Bitcoin's price dumped as well. I'm glad that I used this information as basis to short Ether around 0.055 with a 2x leverage.

I am expecting a further decline of Ether, potentially to around 0.035-0.03, but I'm not greedy and have cashed out just below 0.045 today.

Right that people love low market for huge investment that will give tripled or higher profit in bull market but one thing is that we are waiting for a long time and the market took too long to recover that is why love for low price has decreased. Now it is a change and we want need it for we have planned to sell in bull market where our large collections give us huge returns.

I suppose that was bound to happen right? Ethereum (and altcoins in general) remove speculator BTC supply from the fiat market when things are bullish. People pouring BTC into alts, ICOs, etc. That's good for BTC price, as surely not all the BTC poured into the alt market are immediately dumped on BTCUSD. Less asks on the book = higher price.

This should work in both directions, right?


I don't have much skin in this game, but as a trader, I suspect it'll be like Bitcoin. Everybody will eventually lose hope and forget about it (Ethereum, ICOs). And then, it'll emerge into a bull market again. This market is so heavily tied to hype (often totally empty hype) that it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Aaaaand Ethereum whales are yet again dominating the crypto market by dumping down Bitcoin. It's starting to become more obvious now.

Ethereum's market cap has gone down to $29.5 billion from yesterday's $33 billion. It feels incredibly well as Bitcoin maximalist seeing this absolute shit hopefully come to an end, or at least become less of a thing. This once again proves that Ethereum has nothing other than its ICO's to gain value, and when these ICO's are running away, Ethereum bleeds.

i am sure that this has been one of the biggest challenges that bitcoin had to face this year. the challenge of money exiting the altcoin market and doing it mostly through bitcoin back to fiat. i still remember the Bancor hack where they were panic selling ETH because that and a couple of other altcoins and tokens were the coins stolen and bitcoin price fell down afterwards.

It's perfectly understandable.

It's generally not a great sign for markets in general to continuously test the same support levels over and over again, which indicates that there is no real buy support above it, and that's exactly what we are dealing with; there is no real buy support above $6000 aside from when whales are trying to leverage their gains on BitMex.

If you follow the downtrend, then the recent $8500 peak was nothing more than the next lower high.

Bitcoin doesn't only have to deal with people selling and manipulating it, but it also needs to swallow the dumps coming from altcoin whales and Ether ICO's cashing out, which makes Bitcoin's price and 'bottoms' even more unreliable.

Bitcoin's and Ether's market caps less then a month ago;

Bitcoin $127 billion
Ether $50.6 billion

Bitcoin's and Ether's market caps right now;

Bitcoin $110 billion = 13% decline.
Ether $33 billion = 35% decline.

ok, that's a better explanation. thanks.
although a couple of things i disagree with. you are basically assuming that there is an entity in the market that has full 100% control over the price and the rest of the market is nothing. if that entity decides price should go to X then he will snap his finger and it will go there. well that is unrealistic

as for these "loops" you are talking about, what i see on the chart is very different. what i see is the exact same bottom being tested not a bottom that is going down.
the first "loop" if you want to call it that! started from above $10k and price went down as low as $5900 and jumped back up to above $6k and slowly went up towards $10k again. it broke it but failed to stay there.
the second "loop" ended with $6400 as the bottom and price started rising back up again towards $10k and failed to break and fell down to $5770. that price didn't last long and we jumped back up and now we again tested the lows with $5900 and price is above $6k again

note that there isn't a difference between hitting $6k as bottom and going to $5700 for example when it only lasts 30 minutes. you can not count that as a bottom. the bottom is still $6k and holding strong.

in the end it doesn't matter what you think the "monster" under the bed is doing. the market is all that you need to look at. and as i said, what i see is that $6k is a strong buy support. each time price reaches that level someone dumps about 100BTC to push it lower. so far that dump caused those lower prices and none of them have lasted more than an hour before the market buys back and price jumps back up and your "monster" loses money.

I can not understand why people insist on saying that $6k is not the floor!
we all know that there is a possibility that price drops more but only because it is bitcoin and it is known to be unpredictable at times and show drops or even rises like this out of nowhere but apart from that there is absolutely no other reason for saying that $6k was not the bottom and claiming it will drop lower that this specially since we have seen many times now that it could not be broken into!!!

Even though $6k does seem like the floor that's serving as support and is holding steady right now, I think that there is every possibility that we'll dip below that floor soon and see potentially $4-5k before bottoming out within this year or even the next.

The bear market is still nowhere near over at the moment, so definitely don't get too optimistic. There was a huge bull trap just a few weeks ago as well where everyone got excited, but if you look at the 2014 crash, you'll see that the time frame that it took for prices to reach the bottom was around one and a half years, way more than the time elapsed since the peak of the bull run last year.

Your advice is spot on, though. I think that we're entering a clear accumulation zone. Dollar cost average your buy orders if you have any funds to invest in bitcoin. Accumulate for the long term when everyone else is panic selling. I think that's the most sensible strategy to go with right now, especially if you focus on the huge potential for BTC in the long run, as well as new companies, mainstream investment banks, or well known traders showing some major interest in bitcoin.

ETF or what is the reason behind we still don't know, it was obvious that the price is not predictable in bitcoin. Actually, the price in the market now as a pop up again maybe theirs a whale bought a huge amount in the market that makes bitcoin up a little.
I guess this pop up and down trend process repeatedly happened as what I have observed.

I'd say the only obvious thing is nobody knows for sure, that is the purpose of the market and exchanges to achieve price discovery over time.    We do not know for sure where supply meets and demand and sometimes its down to peoples opinions and possibly it can rely on future events.     Its very likely the bottom pricing to BTC will be found only be a series of price points over time, a process of wearing out sellers and exhausting supply. 

What do you propose to counter it? I have bought some fractions at 7k, should I sell those same fractions if it reaches 8k, and flow with this manipulation? Or should I hold, expecting that the manipulation will lose and price will go up? Remember that bitcoin is no ordinary asset. Its not a stock, nor PM.

The etf hype is actually true, people today wants the price of cryptocurrency to drop so they can invest a huge amount and earn more profit when etf has already been implemented in the market.

if you asking bottom price it is because manipulators main purpose is take the price as below as possible. He has money and knowledge but market react as reverse force so every loop is try for his movements. Last loop was started from 6800 and ended with 5700 also have seen 10k as a summit.these numbers were below previous loop and it was below from previous. So every loop prices are going down.People is being convinced by manipulators that it is not rising in main trend. Every mid-term loop cerates a big main trend that is slowly going down. So we can expect bottom prices below previous one. I also predicted previous bottom prices top price times and trends very well you can see tham on my previous topics.6k is not a limit, manipulators try to change what you believe is limit, below or above so that they can earn money. Manip has a power it is like a monster each loop it grows more by feeding itself from panic sells and buys. Gaining power from waekness so every loop it can move market stronger, it bring down price collect btc and rises again and brings down again with that collected btcs. If you look at yearly graphic you can see manip is loosing its volatility , it cant earn too much money if price changing too fast and too much, but its powers has limit so market is fighting with that monster and general volatility is decreasing. So i expect this year last half will be more stable. I always say dont feed the monster. But traders are too small lack of knowledge according to him. So generaly we cant change too much. Thats why this year is so similar with 2014.

but there is a huge difference that you are forgetting about. today market is just recovering from a bubble and a bear market and lots of manipulative dumps.
but in 2014 all the things i just said were happening but also the market was recovering from two of the biggest incidents that damaged the market greatly. one was scam of Mt Gox, the biggest bitcoin exchange to date with 80% of the volume, and the other was silkroad and all that  crap closing down.
by that time money was just exiting the market with not much coming in but now money is coming it with not much exiting.

this is one of the main reasons why i don't think we can see a prolonged bear market and stay at this bottom for a very long time.