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Topic: It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread) - page 13. (Read 92097 times)

donator
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1166
hi guys, I've set up a chat room for regular members of waveaddict's charting subscription service for anyone who may be interested in discussing the charts & advise openly in a private virtual room, it can be found here:

http://www.chatzy.com/53133032409124

if you are on the list of members here & you'd like to drop in then please to PM me for the room's password or post here & I'll send it to you, if you're not on that list then please to ask WA to let me know that you're a member & I'll add you (unless you'd rather be anon - in which case pse to let me know)

note this is an unofficial WA room, though like my site he's welcome to take it over at any time or just drop in to use it if he wishes - I've emailed him the regular & admin P/Ws, also note that as I don't know who most of the premium service members are the contents of those emails should remain confidential for now

thanks to SkRRJyTC for the chatzy tip Smiley
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
Well, if he is indeed forcing the market to go where it doesn't naturally want to go then the aftermath could be brutal especially if that direction is down. There was probably a large group of people who panic bought because of that wall at 4.6 instead of waiting for a lower price, along a different group, who were otherwise selling or would have sold in the mid 4s but changed their mind because of the wall. So, if that wall disappears, in theory, you have an even greater supply of bitcoins wanting to get out from the additional remorseful buyers and natural sellers whose sole reason for owning bitcoin was that wall.

From a real market perspective, the FED manipulated the US markets by providing cheap credit after the dot com bubble popped and bottomed in 2003. For 5 years the market artificially rallied, but in end, because the rally was based on unsustainable manipulation and people who were buying solely because the the now famous Greenspan put (think of the bitcoin wall), the market crashed in 2008 all the way down to where it was before and lower in half the time as the previous crash. And, as many of you are aware of, the FED is doing the exact same thing again. Rinse and repeat. I wonder what will happen this time around  Wink

The bitcoin market does not have a "natural" direction - the market is determined by bids and asks.  When there's more bids than asks, the direction is up. 

We can see from the volume that there hasn't been much buying since the bid wall went up.  So there probably won't be much selling even if it is removed.  We saw that when the wall at $2.2 went up in November, and was then removed, the market bottomed at $1.95 because the sellers were already exhausted at $2.8-$3.0. 

We can look at the recent selling volume now and see that it was mostly maxed out around $5-$5.5 with the rest happening below that. That's confirmed by looking at the OBV (On Balance Volume), which also lined up almost perfectly with the November low.


As for the Fed, its accurate to call that manipulation of the market because you have one entity which controls the printing press (or the digital ledger, more accurately) and can assign themselves an arbitrary number of USD.  But nobody can do that with bitcoin.
vip
Activity: 490
Merit: 271
Quote
It's always a bad idea to guess what could happen with indicators.


Good Advice.
donator
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1166
donator
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1166
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Fu**ing triangles everywhere now. No good trade Sad Trading inside triangles dangerous.

MACD and ADX bullish crossover is imminent... a little patience to confirm and then buy.

Exactly, patience is the best plan at the moment until we get more evidence for either the bullish or bearish case. It's always a bad idea to guess what could happen with indicators.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Fu**ing triangles everywhere now. No good trade Sad Trading inside triangles dangerous.

Agree since the triangles are all so small and not really trade-able given the cost of commission
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Fu**ing triangles everywhere now. No good trade Sad Trading inside triangles dangerous.

MACD and ADX bullish crossover is imminent... a little patience to confirm and then buy.
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
Fu**ing triangles everywhere now. No good trade Sad Trading inside triangles dangerous.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
-March 30 update sent  Smiley
(includes chart: 134, 135, 136)
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
-March 29 update sent
(includes chart: 132, 133)
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
i did assumed first that from 32 to 2 we got the wave [II] but the smaller wave count dint sum up from 32 to 14 we should have 34 minor waves

@myself, are you one of my subscribers...I can't tell? But, if you are just refer to chart (67) or (54) to answer your question.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
@WA i will make a shameless plug https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/del-73591

The problem that I see in your larger wave analysis is that the rally off $2 was in a 5 wave pattern and not in a 3 so we are either in a zigzag or impulse up from here. In summary, there is really no reason to assume we go sub $2 without a continued move higher first.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Well, if he is indeed forcing the market to go where it doesn't naturally want to go then the aftermath could be brutal especially if that direction is down. There was probably a large group of people who panic bought because of that wall at 4.6 instead of waiting for a lower price, along a different group, who were otherwise selling or would have sold in the mid 4s but changed their mind because of the wall. So, if that wall disappears, in theory, you have an even greater supply of bitcoins wanting to get out from the additional remorseful buyers and natural sellers whose sole reason for owning bitcoin was that wall.

From a real market perspective, the FED manipulated the US markets by providing cheap credit after the dot com bubble popped and bottomed in 2003. For 5 years the market artificially rallied, but in end, because the rally was based on unsustainable manipulation and people who were buying solely because the the now famous Greenspan put (think of the bitcoin wall), the market crashed in 2008 all the way down to where it was before and lower in half the time as the previous crash. And, as many of you are aware of, the FED is doing the exact same thing again. Rinse and repeat. I wonder what will happen this time around  Wink
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
Interestingly though; price hasn't actually come near the wall since it went up.  It's my observation that giant fake bidwalls only vanish when it looks like someone is going to take advantage of it.  No one has yet; so the wall remains.

Does anyone seriously think that that 46k purchase would stay if someone sold into 10k of it (for example)?
Didn't it start off with touching it? Not with significant volume, I guess, but still.
The point with fake bidwalls is that people try to use them to drive the price up and then sell into the new buy orders. From my experience, normally if the price doesn't seem to go up those people get bored and remove the walls again. So either this is not a fake bidwall, or it's a very patient trader.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
@WA
In my view, the market has learnt to simply ignore individual large bid walls. No bigger traders fall for them anymore, and that’s why I think the price action is hardly affected.
I agree, however, a bidwall this large that is actually kept up for multiple days is something I haven't seen before. Maybe it's not moving the price up (since it was placed), but at least it's not dropping either.

Interestingly though; price hasn't actually come near the wall since it went up.  It's my observation that giant fake bidwalls only vanish when it looks like someone is going to take advantage of it.  No one has yet; so the wall remains.

Does anyone seriously think that that 46k purchase would stay if someone sold into 10k of it (for example)?
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
@WA
In my view, the market has learnt to simply ignore individual large bid walls. No bigger traders fall for them anymore, and that’s why I think the price action is hardly affected.
I agree, however, a bidwall this large that is actually kept up for multiple days is something I haven't seen before. Maybe it's not moving the price up (since it was placed), but at least it's not dropping either.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
-March 28 update sent
(includes chart: 130, 131)
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
@WA
In my view, the market has learnt to simply ignore individual large bid walls. No bigger traders fall for them anymore, and that’s why I think the price action is hardly affected.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
-March 27 update sent
(includes chart: 129)
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