It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread) - page 19.

waveaddict

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Quote from: SkRRJyTC on March 19, 2012, 01:02:35 PM

Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 01:00:04 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??

You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 3.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now.

God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching.

Until you get a website set up... http://www.chatzy.com/

I'll probably set something up similar to this in about a week. I have other obligations that I have to take care of for the better part of this week though, so if I were to set it up now, my time on it would be 'very' limited.

waveaddict

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Quote from: fcmatt on March 19, 2012, 01:04:42 PM

Or you can state a few things in public that are so profound and accurate it makes me want to send you
some BTC so I can hear more.

I'll always do this at times, but a website would help me communicate during dense situations like this in a lot of detail

fcmatt

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Or you can state a few things in public that are so profound and accurate it makes me want to send you
some BTC so I can hear more.

JusticeForYou

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 01:00:04 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??

You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 3.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now.

God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching.

Well you kind of do. IRC is pretty popular around these parts.

pent

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Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 01:00:04 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??

You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 3.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now.

God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching.

You could open a private irc somewhere

SkRRJyTC

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Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 01:00:04 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??

You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 3.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now.

God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching.

Until you get a website set up... http://www.chatzy.com/

waveaddict

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??

You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 4.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now.

God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching.

EDIT: I meant 4.84 and not 3.84

SkRRJyTC

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 12:33:08 PM

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on March 19, 2012, 12:28:00 PM

I thought we had a lot of good reasons to hold long... big volume up through $5, triangle continuation pattern, parallel channel support, SMA support, positive daily MACD...

I need to learn to watch for bear signals... I only see bull signals.

that is the thing...there were so many more bullish signals than bearish ones. Remember, I was never really super bullish about this whole move past 5 longer term. I was always keeping an eye on the bearish evidence.

Furthermore, what happened proves why technical analysis will never be an exact science and why you should 'never' bet the farm on any pattern or indicator no mater how likely the outcome is. This will always be a game of probabilities, and so, sometimes the low probability outcomes win.

Sometimes you go all-in on pocket AA... and lose. Its a shame that I am better at managing my poker bankroll than I am at managing my trading balance, because the risk management idea is exactly the same.

waveaddict

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Quote from: SkRRJyTC on March 19, 2012, 12:28:00 PM

I thought we had a lot of good reasons to hold long... big volume up through $5, triangle continuation pattern, parallel channel support, SMA support, positive daily MACD...

I need to learn to watch for bear signals... I only see bull signals.

that is the thing...there were so many more bullish signals than bearish ones. Remember, I was never really super bullish about this whole move past 5 longer term. I was always keeping an eye on the bearish evidence.

Furthermore, what happened proves why technical analysis will never be an exact science and why you should 'never' bet the farm on any pattern or indicator no mater how likely the outcome is. This will always be a game of probabilities, and so, sometimes the low probability outcomes win.

SkRRJyTC

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I thought we had a lot of good reasons to hold long... big volume up through $5, triangle continuation pattern, parallel channel support, SMA support, positive daily MACD...

I need to learn to watch for bear signals... I only see bull signals.

waveaddict

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Quote from: realnowhereman on March 19, 2012, 12:19:57 PM

Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 12:11:21 PM

Don't worry about it, I am in the same boat as a lot of you guys; over the years though, I have learned to keep a level head when unexpected things occur.

On that subject then; what would your experience say about loss-cutting? When you're the wrong side of a trend, and you know you are, but would still like to minimise losses -- what's the best way to pick an "exit number" if you like?

I would never hold a loss that is larger than 10 - 15% unless there is a very good reason. Most of time if you hold a losing position past that point, you are too invested in making up that loss and emotions start taking over.

And rule #1 of investing is to not let emotions take over your decision making.

hope that helps,

realnowhereman

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 12:11:21 PM

Don't worry about it, I am in the same boat as a lot of you guys; over the years though, I have learned to keep a level head when unexpected things occur.

On that subject then; what would your experience say about loss-cutting? When you're the wrong side of a trend, and you know you are, but would still like to minimise losses -- what's the best way to pick an "exit number" if you like?

N12

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 11:57:36 AM

Let me just ask: Has anyone actually made money from leveraging on bitcoinica?

The last time I used Bitcoinica I used 2.5 leverage for the first time on my short. I made decent money with it, yes, although I covered early because I simply shit my pants when I can’t buy back in one instant but with 50 BTC chunks over a long period.

Also let me tell you guys, Bitcoinica is just waiting to blow up, people can still use 10:1 leverage for large amounts when they create lots of accounts. Eventually, they will owe their clients a lot of Bitcoins …

waveaddict

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Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: realnowhereman on March 19, 2012, 12:03:14 PM

Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 11:57:36 AM

Let me just ask: Has anyone actually made money from leveraging on bitcoinica?

Personally, I would stay away from that site, but if you must dabble, I would never leverage everything. Always keep a lot of powder ready to buy on dips that you were not expecting in order to average down on your position when the trend is up.

That's exactly what I did, tried to catch the unexpected 5.15 low in the current upward trend.

I've not been wiped out fortunately. I try never to be left anywhere near a liquidatable position. Doesn't mean it isn't depressing to see yet more of your working capital vanish away. For the twentieth time.

Apologies to all for my moaning. I'll stop whinging now.

Don't worry about it, I am in the same boat as a lot of you guys; over the years though, I have learned to keep a level head when unexpected things occur. This is the nature of the beast though. Corrections are violent in both directions since the whole purpose of a correction is to weed out both bulls and bears so that when the larger trend continues, nobody is left standing.

Everything up until that knife down from 5.18 to 4.9 would have been part of a textbook correction, and so, I would never have called a crash there. That was the last thing that any technical analyst would advise since it was the least likely outcome based solely on the charts.

proudhon

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These swings after big moves are gold. Especially if you calmly place smaller orders. I always use times like this to extract some extra USD.

notme

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Quote from: Mushoz on March 19, 2012, 10:49:06 AM

Are there going to be any premium email in the near future? I'm wondering what the best ways of trading this volatility are

Thanks!

.....dampening bot engaged

2012-03-19 13:04:30 -0400 Profit: 0.010912460000000124 BTC 0.05143000000000342 USD, Base Price: 4.712961147165977, Run Time: 820.262546659

Base price is nonsense when I've got profit in both currencies.

realnowhereman

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 11:57:36 AM

Let me just ask: Has anyone actually made money from leveraging on bitcoinica?

Personally, I would stay away from that site, but if you must dabble, I would never leverage everything. Always keep a lot of powder ready to buy on dips that you were not expecting in order to average down on your position when the trend is up.

That's exactly what I did, tried to catch the unexpected 5.15 low in the current upward trend.

I've not been wiped out fortunately. I try never to be left anywhere near a liquidatable position. Doesn't mean it isn't depressing to see yet more of your working capital vanish away. For the twentieth time.

Apologies to all for my moaning. I'll stop whinging now.

pent

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Activity: 490

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Personally I never use bitconica. And any credits at all. My money - my responsibility.

SkRRJyTC

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Quote from: waveaddict on March 19, 2012, 11:57:36 AM

Let me just ask: Has anyone actually made money from leveraging on bitcoinica?

Personally, I would stay away from that site, but if you must dabble, I would never leverage everything. Always keep a lot of powder ready to buy on dips that you were not expecting in order to average down on your position when the trend is up.

Ive made money there sometimes... kinda like how sometimes you win a scratch off ticket...

waveaddict

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Let me just ask: Has anyone actually made money from leveraging on bitcoinica?

Personally, I would stay away from that site, but if you must dabble, I would never leverage everything. Always keep a lot of powder ready to buy on dips that you were not expecting in order to average down on your position when the trend is up.

Topic: It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread) - page 19. (Read 92097 times)