Topic: It's getting frothy, and I'm dumping 75% of my coins - page 6. (Read 13685 times)

I am long term bullish on Bitcoin.  Hell Bitcoin gave me the financial freedom to leave my "day job" and start my own company.  However comments (combined with recent price action) like the one you replied to (and others) ake me wonder if I should move some coins out of cold storage and sell into the rally.

It seems like you are right.  It is no longer Bitcoin "may" reach $10,000 (or $100,000, or $1 quadrillion or any other target you want) but that it is a 100% certainty Bitcoin will go up 1000x from here.  Not only will it go up, it will do so with no corrections along the way.  Not only will there be corrections along the way the idea of mass adoptions in years (or a decade) has now been shrunk to months.  Another thread I saw some noob with no idea how Bitcoin works, what it is, or why it has utility just wanting to buy some with a credit card before it explodes overnight making everyone billionaires.  Anectdotes I know but the sentiment has turned to short term hyper bullish.

Note: I am not making a prediction on a timeline or severity of any future crash just pointing out that in any market (and yes Bitcoin is not immune) when sentiment turns to 100% bullish that is usually when a correction is right around the corner.  Lately even the sentiment itself has been in a bubble, "Bitcoin hits $500 by the end of the year, no Bitcoin hits $1,000 by the end of the month, no Bitcoin hits $20,000 by the time I finish taking a shit" (ok I made last one up but you get my point).

I don't remember $2 profit taking, only some pathetic "fuck it I'm out of here" threads proudhon, nice to see you, are you here to predict the crash to single digits again or you changed to some other target?

oh yeah, I agree, epic... normally I leave buy orders back down to try buy back in but this time I am too scared, i think I might sit this one out or at least place buy orders at an insanely low number, like $70

if you look at exchange volume, almost all this new money into BTC has come from china. And working with the chinese on a weekly basis, my opinion is that they couldn't care one bit about the philosophical pros of bitcoin. They are in it for one thing - to make money. So when they sell, there might be some big selling.

 

Taking a profit is never stupid.*  You stay liquid, you can buy back in, and you (currently) can use your profits to pay for any expense you might incur.  Basically, you win.

*A caveat: taking a profit might be stupid if your decision to profit isn't based upon the same principles as your overall approach to investing (e,g, buy and hold until BTC reaches 'x' price, or 'y' years, etc.).

When you invest, you need to create an investment plan and stick to it, otherwise you're basically gambling.  "Feelings" and intuition are good at times, but in general, it's thinking that keeps you consistent, and thinking can let you know when some "feelings" are justified.

For example, let's say that you believe Bitcoin is going to be around for at least 5 more years and that the market will continue to grow throughout that time.  Let's also say that you've spent a significant amount of time researching everything there is to know about Bitcoin to reach those conclusions.  If a few months later you get a "feeling" that the price is too high because it has been rising rapidly, and if this feeling encourages you into selling the majority of your holdings, then your decision is at odds with your original beliefs about Bitcoin.  You may have profited, but your own reasoning initially suggested that holding would have been a better option...you expected the rise in price to begin with.

Don't forget $0.5, $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, and $6.

Indeed. The coming crash will bleed all the starry eyed investors who think Bitcoin is still going to up exponentially before correcting.

A very expensive lesson is awaiting the uber-confident.


Smart money will come back in and scoop up cheaper Bitcoins for the real ride to the top


Crash, here we come!

The crash will be epic.

Nobody knows what the top is... bitcoin investors are becoming so starry eyed now that some are believing it's an almost certainty that bitcoin is going to reach a 100x market cap (or more). Bitcoin is nowhere close to large scale adoption, there are far too many security and safekeeping issues involved for the average user. There are still many things that could happen between now and then that could cause bitcoin to fall to zero (or close).

It's good to have some fiat available so you can buy in when there is a crash. That is, if you are long-term bullish on bitcoin which pretty much everyone here is or they wouldn't be on this forum.

I had roughly 1,000 coins and planned on selling 250 at $350. I've sold 100 so far and hopefully will no be able to sell the other 150 at >$400.

If bitcoin continues to rise, great, the rest of my coins will be worth more.

If it crashes to below $300 or even below $200 I'll take the $100k fromt he sold coins and buy back. I'll have more coins than I started with and still be happy. Being long term bullish I know it will be back above $400 again even if there is a huge crash.

All the buy-and-hold forevers have seen many such topics at $7, $14, $30 levels. We pity you.

The top is a long long way off.  Bitcoin is not even at the start of being adopted by a small country.  I worked out that Cyprus alone would push the value to well over $11k immediately it switched.  

The stutters you see in today's markets are just background noise in an inevitable climb.

I made a spreadsheet (linked to from this thread) that lets you play around with the short-term and long-term impacts of various cash-out strategies on the way up.

I use it to the withdrawal percentages at which I don't need to lose sleep over the short-term movements of Bitcoin price, nor the long-term impact of a total collapse, or insane success.

Thread conversation seemed to gravitate towards tax implications and the broader notion of wealth management. That's a layer above the intent of the thread and spreadsheet, so I feel compelled to add: Due your own diligence regarding the tax implications of your selling strategy.

yeah right and let me guess, all the buy and hold forevers are going to come back to this forum after bitcoin has crashed and claim they sold within $10 of the top.

Have you considered the possibility of the exact opposite outcome?

In a hyperinflationary scenario only 5 percent can get out of government fiat before it's value is completely destroyed. The remaining 95 percent have to get burnt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/porsche-911s-at-39-off-spurs-argentina-crackdown-on-peso.html

The same scenario could play out in every country, not just Argentina. Sure, you might "profit" in government fiat in the short term, but in the long term the outcome is not as clear.

I'll take my chances with Bitcoin, Gold and Silver, thank you.

Good things come to those who wait.....

And for those who can`t, at the very least enjoy the ride!

no, if you read my post it says between 120 and 150

not above 120 only

prices tripling in 30 days is not even close to stable.

It has been above 100 (95% of the time) since July.

That's not sufficient for you?

Your criteria are included in anything above 120 .... so you have 3 solid months above 100.

lol. very funny I am stealing that image

Of course.

yeah its possible it lasts 80 days, I give you that

but I believe its unlikely, my opinion. To keep the same pace which parabolic moves need to do so they do not collapse upon themselves, that would put bitcoin at approx $3000 at the end of 80 days.

if it lasts less than 40 days, then there is definitely a good range guide for future parabolic moves (20 to 40 days).