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Topic: It's quiet... *too* quiet! (Read 3083 times)

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
November 23, 2011, 05:36:33 PM
#31
It's interesting time indeed - the bid walls never have been bigger, but on the other hand it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller even though bouncing back from the huge support.  The conference is on the horizon - but on the other hand the EURo fiasco has started another wave of getting rid of all risky investments.

The question for buyers, I think, is what the owner of those bid walls is up to.  We recently saw a very similar situation where what appeared to happen was that a giant bid wall was place, people's confidence went up and they therefore placed bids ahead of the bid wall, and when the bids in front of the bid wall was high enough somebody sold into exactly everything in front of the wall and then the wall was taken down and the price fell far below the wall.  I think because of that there's some hesitancy, for good reason, to buy up very far.  There's a good chance the same strategy is being played right now and the seller is just waiting for enough depth before he sells off another large chunk.

That's also my suspicion, add to this that everytime a larger sale is up front it is quickly gobbled up, it seems that is a very profitable trading strategy.

To make it sour for him we must just be faster Wink
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
November 23, 2011, 05:05:09 PM
#30
It's interesting time indeed - the bid walls never have been bigger, but on the other hand it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller even though bouncing back from the huge support.  The conference is on the horizon - but on the other hand the EURo fiasco has started another wave of getting rid of all risky investments.

The question for buyers, I think, is what the owner of those bid walls is up to.  We recently saw a very similar situation where what appeared to happen was that a giant bid wall was place, people's confidence went up and they therefore placed bids ahead of the bid wall, and when the bids in front of the bid wall was high enough somebody sold into exactly everything in front of the wall and then the wall was taken down and the price fell far below the wall.  I think because of that there's some hesitancy, for good reason, to buy up very far.  There's a good chance the same strategy is being played right now and the seller is just waiting for enough depth before he sells off another large chunk.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
November 23, 2011, 03:50:06 PM
#29
It's interesting time indeed - the bid walls never have been bigger, but on the other hand it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller even though bouncing back from the huge support.  The conference is on the horizon - but on the other hand the EURo fiasco has started another wave of getting rid of all risky investments.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
November 23, 2011, 03:28:41 PM
#28
Who else has the sense that another largish drop is on the horizon?

Yes but I don't think that will be today. The 'rally' hasn't spiked yet and the buyer side don't look particular inviting to short into.
But a week from now I think we will finally go under 2.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
November 23, 2011, 03:10:44 PM
#27
I meant, that people should be working on technologies and business models that allow merchants to function in a society with volatile markets. The most obvious example of this is a service that allows the immediate conversion of bitcoins to a more stable currency or commodity (USD). Since that already exists, what about high frequency pricing? Allow merchants to update prices on the fly based on the prices of competitors and prices upstream in their supply lines. I'm just thinking out loud here.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
November 23, 2011, 03:00:35 PM
#26
Inflation != volatility. Bitcoin never technically hyperinflated (>50% monthly depreciation) but it was still a bit annoying trading physical goods.

I agree, it tends to be one direction only.

Maybe you should try playing electricity spot trading - more volatile than almost anything else I know.  $100 one hour and $20,000 the next, or $0.01.  Hard to tell.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
November 23, 2011, 02:52:33 PM
#25
Who else has the sense that another largish drop is on the horizon?
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
November 23, 2011, 02:51:12 PM
#24
Inflation != volatility. Bitcoin never technically hyperinflated (>50% monthly depreciation) but it was still a bit annoying trading physical goods.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
November 23, 2011, 02:46:38 PM
#23
Merchants usually don't like to receive $10 for their sale... make that $9.50 a minute later.  No, $8.50 5 minutes later. 

Zimbabwe super hyper inflation - and you're right, they didn't like it.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
November 23, 2011, 12:35:36 PM
#22


If the price is $100 then it's really nice to have such stability. But for now, the potential instability is still terrible for commerce.

We are at nearly $2.00 as we have been gradually declining so that BTC is finding it's true value.

Maybe it will go down to $1.50 and even further down to $1.00. Who knows where it will reset itself.

Is this not stability? I would think $100 would be way too volatile.
vip
Activity: 490
Merit: 502
November 23, 2011, 11:36:36 AM
#21
Going back to the theme of it's too quiet, I have noticed the BTC price chart for the last week where everything seems quite steady.

There are no precipitous drops, a good point of resistance in the $2.20 range, gradual 5% to 10% increase over a few days, a bit of a gradual sell off, and then it repeats.

I know this can change any time, especially with manipulator intervention, but isn't this nice, for now??

SJ

If the price is $100 then it's really nice to have such stability. But for now, the potential instability is still terrible for commerce.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
November 23, 2011, 11:29:17 AM
#20
Going back to the theme of it's too quiet, I have noticed the BTC price chart for the last week where everything seems quite steady.

There are no precipitous drops, a good point of resistance in the $2.20 range, gradual 5% to 10% increase over a few days, a bit of a gradual sell off, and then it repeats.

I know this can change any time, especially with manipulator intervention, but isn't this nice, for now??

SJ
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
November 23, 2011, 07:04:25 AM
#19
It's funny that, just now, this thread was followed by the "EVERYBODY CALM DOWN" thread.

It's just never right, eh? Grin
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
November 23, 2011, 05:40:02 AM
#18
Market volatility should be driving innovation, not disregarded as "bad". Volatility may be the future that western civ is headed towards, whether bitcoins become widely used or not. If your business can handle bitcoin it can handle anything.

Merchants usually don't like to receive $10 for their sale... make that $9.50 a minute later.  No, $8.50 5 minutes later.  Oh look, it's up to $11.  No, back to $8.50 again.  It's fun for speculators but not for people who want to know how much money they are getting, one minute to the next.  For the foreseeable future bitcoin is directly tied into the value of other currencies.

A business doesn't have to handle bitcoin at all to be successful (well, unless it's Silk Road).
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
November 23, 2011, 01:20:18 AM
#17
Market volatility should be driving innovation, not disregarded as "bad". Volatility may be the future that western civ is headed towards, whether bitcoins become widely used or not. If your business can handle bitcoin it can handle anything.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
November 23, 2011, 01:11:25 AM
#16
It's actually quite nice when the price isn't falling 5 or 10% within a few minutes.  Some of the crazy trading action in recent weeks has been triggered by Bitcoinica.  While speculators profit everyone else who wants to use bitcoin for something useful (they do exist, somewhere) are hurt by the massive volatility.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
November 22, 2011, 11:05:36 PM
#15

shhhh


btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Nudge nudge, wink wink...


If there are more bids than bitcoins, than it's like the silver market, way more paper than actual physical.

I guess I need to be holding "physical" bitcoin....

No, it doesn't mean that at all. If two people offer to buy my one of a kind time traveling Volkswagen it doesn't mean there is a paper Volkswagen.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
November 22, 2011, 08:54:56 PM
#14
btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

I think the more relevant bit of information is that there is currently about $600,000 in bids.  There is, undoubtedly, more money than that sitting in MtGox, but that's all that we can see.  Even if there's twice that in MtGox, that isn't that much.  If twice the visible cash were to instantly advance on the supply, then the price would go to just about half the all time high. 

A million (USD1M) would clean out the offers up to $13.30 on Gox, but there is only 264,000 coins for sale there and could all be had for just $3M.

back to waiting now . . . . . . . . . . . .
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
November 22, 2011, 08:14:17 PM
#13
btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

I think the more relevant bit of information is that there is currently about $600,000 in bids.  There is, undoubtedly, more money than that sitting in MtGox, but that's all that we can see.  Even if there's twice that in MtGox, that isn't that much.  If twice the visible cash were to instantly advance on the supply, then the price would go to just about half the all time high. 
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
November 22, 2011, 07:33:33 PM
#12
Demand to use it for barter?
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