Trends never last forever, it's quite remarkable how solid the uptrend was for two months. Withdrawal problems at MtGox might have something to do with it, but then again those problems already existed before this uptrend. I think we're going through a transition where MtGox loses its status as market leader and Bitstamp takes over. Market depth is still lacking at Bitstamp but this should improve as more and more people with big money start trusting the new market leader. Whales just need to make a small leap of faith, and when a couple of them do the rest will follow eventually. It's just a matter of trust, and I think Gox is quickly losing it so these whales will have to make a choice.
For a while now, I thought of the real price of a coin as the bitstamp price, minus a small percentage perhaps because of the wrong signals from mtgox (forced buying pressure because of fiat problems). Then again, there's chodpaba's hypothesis that the recent history has to be seen in the context of a carefully managed buying program of a super whale. /shrug
Personally I think 121 was the bottom of this pullback and we go up from here. But you never know with bitcoin, testing 110 or 100 again is also a possibility. I sold at 130 on Bitstamp and bought back at 116 (with my play money), we'll see what happens next.
Nice. I tried something similar, starting from a slightly smaller margin (selling at around 128, buying back at around 120), but didn't take care of slippage enough and ended up with a small loss.
