Topic: It's that time again! Rally is coming soon :) (Read 4117 times)
Hm, I guess that sounds plausible
I'm not sure, I seem to remember someone saying that, and you seemed the most likely person 
Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?
Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?
basically, when the USD goes down, all assets go up. when the USD and UST's go down, all assets really go up.
I'm not sure, I seem to remember someone saying that, and you seemed the most likely person
Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?
Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?
Wasn't the reasoning: "Stock markets are crashing! There's a lot of 'free wealth' which needs new investments! Bitcoin is ideal for that!"
i don't know if you're referring to my reasoning but i never said that.
what i've been saying is that there appears to be a newfound revulsion of sovereign debt which appears to include US Treasuries. if the selloff in US Treasuries continue, THAT will free up huge sums of USD's looking for a new home.
The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October.
Actually, try putting it in Log. Then the rate of decline is actually increasing. (30% in August, 40% in September, 50% in October)Edit: So yeah, actually not straight, as Dan said, but going faster and faster. This can also be blamed on less market depth though.
But yes, it's anyone's call. It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off low like this.
Edit:
I don't see a single thing that could possibly induce enough incoming cash. This thing is dying. And it only takes another big screw-up to spark an ouflux(?) of cash, and a corresponding crash, especially when confidence is already low like this.
Let me rephrase that then:
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
So what you are saying is that its media share is low. There are a lot of people that don't know about Bitcoin who might want in so it has the potential to increase in price. This has nothing to do with the dollar value. If the price was $1000 per coin and the general knowledge situation was the same would it also be a low price?
Hmm, what do I mean?
The current situation of bitcoin looks very much like an unstable balance. Most people think its price will either increase, and increase a lot, or decrease, and decrease a lot, maybe even die. Apart from that, there are a number of events going which might spark a large new interest in bitcoin, e.g. occupy wallstreet, but also bitcoin being mentioned a lot at Constellation's Connected Enterprise 2011.
Thinking about it, I believe you're right, it has nothing to do with the dollar value in itself, only with the bitcoin situation being at a tipping point. The reason the tipping point is there, is conflicting signals. There seems to be potential external interest, but the exchange rate has been dropping. Which of these impulses is going to prevail?
i think tomorrow we get a large ramp in the stock mkt which will correspond to a ramp in Bitcoin.
Why would a ramping stock market correspond to a ramp in bitcoin? Wasn't the reasoning: "Stock markets are crashing! There's a lot of 'free wealth' which needs new investments! Bitcoin is ideal for that!"
i think tomorrow we get a large ramp in the stock mkt which will correspond to a ramp in Bitcoin.
Let me rephrase that then:
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
So what you are saying is that it's media share is low. There are a lot of people that don't know about Bitcoin who might want in so it has the potential to increase in price. This has nothing to do with the dollar value. If the price was $1000 per coin and the general knowledge situation was the same would it also be a low price?
Let me rephrase that then:
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.
High and low only have historic meaning. Without context how do we know that $3 is a low price? Maybe it's a really high price. If the market is purely speculative, nobody cares about the absolute price, they only care how it changes relative to it's previous price.
The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October.
Actually, try putting it in Log. Then the rate of decline is actually increasing. (30% in August, 40% in September, 50% in October)Edit: So yeah, actually not straight, as Dan said, but going faster and faster. This can also be blamed on less market depth though.
But yes, it's anyone's call. It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off low like this.
Edit:
Not on a logarithmic scale there isn't. And you will find your line is a lot straighter there too. On the way down and the way up. When talking about returns, nobody cares about the actual price, it's the percentage movement that matters. That's why logarithmic makes much more sense.
Bitcoin, last 4 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.
We've had slow periods before, but for the last 4 months, the 30 day moving average has consistently gone down in almost a straight line. That has not changed.
The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October. Of course, we're at $3 now. Not much further down to go.
It's not at all clear how the endgame plays out. The market is so much smaller now, and any big transaction yanks the price around briefly.
There's always a bottom at zero.
In before we return to less than $3...
Taking down oders is a normal process in trading when volatility turns out not to match expectations. Why buy at 3 when you could buy at 2.5. Why sell at 3.5 when you could sell at 4.
People (or their trading systems) are constantly watching indicators and want to maximize profits. Of course also the ones with alot of BTC or USD....
People (or their trading systems) are constantly watching indicators and want to maximize profits. Of course also the ones with alot of BTC or USD....
So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?
In the small burst upwards last friday, I thought the askwalls at ฿3.35 and ฿3.50 were fake too. They were steep, like the bidwalls used to be before this small-increment thingey came around.But nope. in a few seconds, 20 000 bitcoins were actually bought.
there are real buyers out there looking to scoop up cheap coins. look at how the top 5 Bitcoin holders EXPANDED their holdings.
So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?
In the small burst upwards last friday, I thought the askwalls at ฿3.35 and ฿3.50 were fake too. They were steep, like the bidwalls used to be before this small-increment thingey came around.But nope. in a few seconds, 20 000 bitcoins were actually bought.
highly unlikely. as discussed in another thread, mtgox makes more money the higher the price so one would wonder why they would've allowed the price to fall so far down from the top which has hurt their revenues immensely.
So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?
The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.
It is the way that it goes down that is what appears to be manipulation.
Large walls set up that then fall just as it is going down.
Early adopters are not sitting on $100k to put up walls while also selling $100k worth of BTC.
Those walls are from MTGOX themselves. with zero auditing or regulation they are free to do whatever they want on their own exchange. They answer to no one. They can easily create/remove/buy/sell 100k orders at the drop of the hat.
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