Topic: It's Tuesday now, seems nothing will happen. (Read 2658 times)

Big assumption there. Could just as likely lose everything.

It can't go lower than that while Matthew is offering even odds on a default. Assuming an investor has the cash available and trusts Matthew, he can get 50% of his "investment" back by simply making a bet with Matthew for 50% of his exposure.

Pirate defaults : Investment lost, bet won.
Pirate pays out 100% : Investment safe, bet loses.
Best case : Pirate pays out 99% and bet wins.

I really don't understand Matthew's motivation here. To risk 10k BTC on some guy (who you yourself claim not to trust) paying out, simply to make a point about how people should say:

It is probably a ponzi.
rather than
It is a ponzi.
 

All I can say is he probably knows something we don't.

EDITED: Realised an investor wouldn't need to have the cash available, since he will only have to pay Matthew once Pirate has paid out.

I am shocked it is that high.

It is morally reprehensible, but IMHO you can't complain without holding some double standards. The concept of insider trading isn't applicable to an anonymous free market. Everyone involved made the informed decision to invest on the GLBSE instead of a regulated stock exchange. And those who draw on the benefits have to put up with the drawbacks. You can't pick and choose the best of two opposite worlds.


24h average on the GLBSE is at ~50%.

Of course it is morally reprehensible.  But is it against the law? SEC regulations don't apply to GLBSE assets (or any other form of bitcoin contracts for that matter). And even if you could take legal action, how would you prove it? Seems like a way of getting away without legal ramifications. Still think it's unlikely though. Purely because I don't think it is viable for him to buy enough of his liabilities at a large enough discount. Especially if he has to do so before friday. Last I heard assets with pirate exposure were still selling for 80% of face value. Anyone have an update?

Its a form of insider trading yes.

Indeed, even if it is done via proxy.

The proxies then would be simply an accessories to fraud, would they not? Is it not also a security fraud? Could it be a ponzi being converted into another form of fraud, like securities fraud?

This is still a default... buying your own liabilities on the open market at a discount is the same thing as repaying debts with a haircut (a default).

In these days of terrorism simply reporting a suspicious package will cause the bomb squad to show up or tipping them off to a drug house will cause the swat squad to raid and shoot your dog.

This would be entertaining and memorable.

Assuming it's not a scam... this is the most interesting and entertaining contribution I've read in the past few days. People who are still betting against a default probably have exactly this plan in mind. Pirate waits as long as possible so he can buy back his own liabilities cheaply. Then he starts a few payments to initiate another crash and finally buys coins to repay investors. I couldn't come up with a better scheme, it's brilliant.

And if he pulls THIS through, he's earned the Balls-of-Steel-Award, no questions asked.

That's not to say he's not going to get a bunch of pizzas delivered to his house though.

uh..None ?

so, bitlane what kind of violence do you have planned for pirate?  hammer to the kneecap?   pulling out his fingernails?  what kind of plans are you making? very interested!

I consider a return of funds possible - because if he can pull it off, it leaves him fantastically well-placed to pull off a $50 or $500 Million dollar ponzi down the track. 
The reputation gained from paying out on this one would be invaluable.

If he can find a wealthy co-conspirator to put in a few mil to pay out this little scheme - then for the next one, most bitcoiners are his bitches.

.....and require revision numbers

(just kidding Matthew....I am your friend...lol)

i LOLed 

If he draws out the drama  he can sell more copies of his book. Im guessing that would be the first bitcoin related bestseller 

P.S. If Matt Wright publishes it the book will be 12 months late.

+1 I can see him making this process as slow as possible to buy cheap coins to repay investors.

I won't be terribly surpised if waits a while longer and then starts making a few payouts just to see the effecct on the market. So many believe that BTCST paying out will crash the market that it is quite possible that the APPEARANCE of BTCST paying out will crash the market.  Of course pirate will be happily buying more iif this should happen.

Another option open to him is to wait until friday, by which time it will be widely accepted by all but the most deluded of his investors that he won't be paying out. Then buy back a large portion of his liabilities for a fraction of their worth (possibly using an alternate identity), and then pay out the rest. In which case he would not technically have defaulted.

I don't really think the second option will happen. But I am so dumbfounded by the large mass of supporters (some of whom claim to not be investors) who religously maintain he will pay out, even in the face of mounting evidence that he won't, that I am forced to try and come up with plausible scenarios where he doesn't default.

Am I missing some information here? I have admittedly not been following this saga closely from the beginning. Is there ANY case to be made for BTCST NOT being a ponzi (other than "You can't PROVE that he IS running a ponzi so stop with the baseless accusations?") If so, could someone please provide a link?