Topic: I've ALSO Given Up - page 2. (Read 6034 times)

I think it's pointless basing anything on past performance. If Bitcoin was 200 years old then there'd be some precedents to count on.

There are far too many developments, both good and bad, to have the slightest clue where it'll be this November.

Yeah, ur right. And everyone knows this and acts accordingly, thus nulling the Costanza factor

This is more my sentiment. I don't think we will go up until there is truly capitulation of all the weak handed large investors from the Nov-Dec run.

I watched in awe back in early November as the price went from $200 to $400 in what seemed like a week.  Then it just kept climbing.  At that time I remember thinking, "Never again will I be sitting in full fiat before a run up.  I'd rather be sleeping in coins that I might have overpaid a little for, than miss the next rally (and the next, and the next, etc)."

You never know what is going to happen in this market, and it is still absolutely miniscule in size.  So much runway left over the next 5-8 years it's ridiculous.  The bitcoin "craze" that will sweep the world could still be years away.

It is very hard to take seriously analyses in such way. Bitcoin is completely different kind of idea. There were never even similar things like this one.

Based on different and modern way of supply of bitcoin we have to take into account completely different kind of dealing with trading.

Kram, do not worry.  If I went outside and started asking people what they thought about bitcoin, they would probably ask me what the hell I was talking about.  Atleast you understand what it is and have gotten in at a price where many others have (even though its close to ATH).

If you do not mind buying when you did, it means you were comfortable and just wanted to get it over.  No one could have predicted the crazy FUD that kept us there for months (and might or might not still be going on)

I agree on always doing the opposite of the panic/greed signal that you feel 

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then. In retrospect, I realize it was actually quite obvious - the fear of losing "the moon" was simply too great, so I "panic" bought. Lesson learned, when this kind of panic hits, you MUST do the opposite of what you feel.

And yes. I don't mind losing money if I learn something valuable that will help me earn many times more in the future. And I would definitely rather lose money over losing bitcoin.

You are strange person. You bought at 985, knowing it would go down? You have since been investing in a steadily declining market, apparently with relentless glee? Do you actually like losing money?

One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.

I'll give you my example: I've bought all in, in december at average price of 585, and then proceeded to sell everything at 670. Even though the price was going up I knew (100% sure even though everyone was posting trains, rockets, boats, astronauts and what not) that the correction couldn't be over so soon. So I waited, and waited… and waited, and waited. Until one day I just couldn't watch bitcoin go up anymore with me being all out. So I bought, and luckily, knowing it would go down, I did so only with a fraction of my funds. It's easy to see that I bought at 985, literally moments before it completely reversed. Moments, not even minutes, fully aware of what was going on. But once I did buy, I felt relieved and after that I managed to continue trading considerably more efficiently, lowering my buy-in average considerably below my initial one.

TL DR: the current prices are just too good not to make a long-term investment, be it even 10% of your funds. Don't trade with everything, you might win, but it could drive you crazy as well. Hedge. Respect the stop loss.

But I've wanted it to go up for months and all it went was down    It is weird to be in the reverse position.

Lol at your "Seinfeld trading pattern", good stuff.

You are going to be sorry ..too many factors for there to be a high % of this working for u  

In most cases the market will do EXACTLY the oppiste of what your emotional response is

i.e you want down it will go up

You need to live in bizaro world or to look at yourself as George Costanza i.e everything you do is wrong & do teh opposite is the secret to your success

Its called the Seinfield trading pattern

Trading isn't easy, don't give up.
Also, it could easily bounce back down to $400 by tomorrow:
No one knows for certain how soon BTC hits $1500, $2,500 & $3,500

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  

Oh really!?

 

This has been discussed AD-NAUSEUM that crypto does not do TA very well because of a laundry list of reasons

You are living in a fools paradise if u are basing your crypto trading on TA IMHO

EDIT: I meant to say ONLY on TA

Funny thing is that you are not the only one looking at this move at the moment ...here is a post from another thread that outlines it

Also yes 415 support point has been tested again & again & i think the CHina FUD has run its course

So here is a hypothetical.....



What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331 (this has happned to me on many occasions and to make a point I  missed getting filled  one time by 0.4 cents Sad )

SO now where are you ...locked in 12 k loss and by the time you scramble to figure out what is going on and IF (big IF ) you are awake or at a terminal when all of this happens you can get a new market order on

1) Locked in 12k loss
2) Misssed getting filled
3) Missed the movement
= HIGH Risk

I think you have a 1 in 3 of this working for you ...On the trade you are talking about it could easily end up costing you 20-25k

The market loves smashing people into the ground



HODL....especially as you have gone through what I see as the worst of the volatility ..but hey to be honest I dont really give a flying fruit cake

I may be wrong or I may be right or neither but essentially that does not matter as the market can & will do anything ..everything is a calculation of risk

WHat is your risk appetite ?

Go and learn some TA and you will know that $430 is very likely not the bottom for this wave down. All the commonly used indicators are spelling bad news ahead for Bitcoin long positions.

Go do some Trend Based Fib Retracements on the previous few drops ($1150 to $380; $995 to $400; $710 - $340) from top, to bottom, and back up the upper reach of the bounce. Notice how the following drop stopped at around 76% ($400), notice how the next drop stopped around 62% ($340). Now go and do a Trend Based Fib Retracement on the current down wave, from the bottom at $340, to the top at $548, and see where the 50% retracement line lands.......$360?

76% - 62% - 50%  etc (being the fib retracement targets).

I would suggest that there will be a retest of $360 and probably a strong bounce around that price point, but that is not to say that $360 will be the final low, but certainly a target for a possible good short term long opportunity.

P.S. I could show you a chart of what I mean but it just looks like a bit of a fkn mess.

Most people around here are high stakes gambler types, and have the stomach for such a scenario. Of course we could fall to $200-$300 range and hang there for awhile, but the consensus around here is bullish long term, so most of us don't get too worked up over it.