I am not a big fan of boxing compared to MMA fights. So Im only aware of how strong Nate Diaz is when it comes to resisting punches and come backs so i would say that If he can withstand Jake's punches for at least two rounds there is a good chance he could win. Nate is a true warrior in my eyes as I have watched him fight until his last breath in all the fights I have seen. On the other hand I cannot make an accurate judgment about Jake's strength and fighting style since I haven't watched many of his fights except for the last one he lost against Tommy Fury.
If I were to bet on this fight I would take the risk and place my money on Nate Diaz, as the potential returns are much better
Weathering a boxer's punches will seriously not be enough for somebody who have been training all his life about MMA, stamina will be a big factor on this fight if an MMA fighter and a boxer will fight in a ring, surely the advantage will go for the boxer as it's his forte while the MMA fighter will have a lot of trouble because he is not trained to last up to 12 long rounds.
Most of the time, these boxers will just buy some time until they come into the late rounds where the MMA fighter doesn't have enough stamina to keep up with the boxer's punches. MMA fighter's only chance to defeat a boxer inside the ring is to settle the fight as early as they could because the advantage won't on their side once the fight drags longer.
But that aint a fully professional fight. There are not going to be 12 rounds. It is going to be 8 round max. And as to stamina, Nate Diaz has experience of fighting 5*5min fights. That is 25 minutes of action. And I dont know what is more exhausting - throwing punches for 8*3min rounds, or trying to throw back a 80kg guy that lays on you, throw punches and try to submit you.
Your post can be applied to heavyweights, guys who fight for air more than against opponents in late rounds, but Jake isnt a heavyweight, not even like a cruiserweight imho. I would not say that stamina is going to be a major factor in this fight.