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Topic: Jim Rickards' New Book "The Death of Money", Review - page 4. (Read 14014 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250

We had a Greek politician on the news the other day and I was surprised to hear some sense.  She said their problem is not fiscal but structural, even while people praise the Greek recovery; their recent ability to issue new debt.   The real problem is their failure to allow free trade and business, they have the same old over governance, endless laws on how to operate legally & too high taxes that works to stop honest use of Greece by the Greeks to do business with the world.

Rickards, in the book, writes a lot about structural problems which are treated as if they were cyclical problems.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
Inreresting thread, interesting book.

I really took a lot from Currency Wars and the SDR theory continues in DoM.

A question I ask myself is whether any upcoming crisis will follow the pattern of previous ones or will it be 'new'?
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
The worst tax is always going to be that which discourages the most productive activities in a country.    Tax on alcohol is practically genius compared to taxing a company attempting to make a profit and employ people.    Even worse is when they tax by proxy by forcing companies to piggyback gov policy like Obama likes to do.
The greatest mistakes are those repeated often.   Obama has tax on companies which employ more then 50 people, so discouraging employment.   Greece I bet has similar tactics in their war on profit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Window_tax


We had a Greek politician on the news the other day and I was surprised to hear some sense.  She said their problem is not fiscal but structural, even while people praise the Greek recovery; their recent ability to issue new debt.   The real problem is their failure to allow free trade and business, they have the same old over governance, endless laws on how to operate legally & too high taxes that works to stop honest use of Greece by the Greeks to do business with the world.
  The EU is famous for its throttling and destructive regulations, they didnt fix it they reinforced that system apparently

Quote
half of the municipalities are bankrupt in Germany
I thought that was why everyone was eager to save Greece.  Germany liabilities abroad are great but as its a great exporter it should be in a strong position to determine terms but you say not

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
lol
"Greece just needs a better tax system"

Paying taxes to government is like paying $50 for a Big Mac.

That's not my quote, I didn't say that. Reading really isn't that hard.

One of the problems before the crisis was that those $50 were not collected. Not sure how the situation is currently. I hear Greeks are taxed into oblivion right now.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Nice book
full member
Activity: 180
Merit: 100
lol
"Greece just needs a better tax system"

Paying taxes to government is like paying $50 for a Big Mac.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

I suggest that you are complacent about half of the municipalities are bankrupt in Germany. The shit is going to hit fan in Germany in another year or two.

You are not prepared for what is coming.

It will be global contagion and yes it will get as bad in Germany as it is in Greece now.

France will fry next before Germany does.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

What part of massive corruption do you fail to grasp?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250

Quote
$7.000 is quite conservative.

Also 7000 is an arbitrary figure as any great rise in gold likely comes with a fall in dollar so we are not talking present day values but unknowns.   Eventually gold will continue at the same value its been on average anyway but its possible it does spike as high as previous centuries, apparently Henry VIII's gold sovereigns were an all time high during his reformations.  They are still made today, not much else lasts that long.
If we are blowing smoke, I'll say 70,000 as that'd be inline with similar currency depreciation like Marc Faber has studied in the past.   Look at the rouble, peso or drachma and price gold in that over the years and the price gets silly quick

Well, $7.000 would be in real terms, in todays-dollar-terms, just calculating gold against the money supply. To that, you would have to add any (hyper)inflation, which, as you say, should be expected. So the end number might be a lot higher, but us PM holders won't gain anything from that. The nominal number isn't that interesting in the end.

Interesting history lesson there!

Oh, and nice avatar! Wink
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
I appreciated very much your views on Europe and especially Germany.  Most of what I read says that Germany is really rockin' even while not mentioning the strong ties that Germany has with the rest of (faltering) Europe.  Your comments balance that noise...   Smiley


Don't get me wrong, Germany is still kind of rocking, at least compared to much of the rest of the EU...

You are uninformed as 0.7% growth (and on a consistent decline after peaking at 4.2% in 2010) is not rocking:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6167555

All of Europe will sink into negative growth later this year or next.

Global sovereign debt BIG BANG starts 2015.75.

And it will be worse than horrific.

WTF is wrong with you people? This is a 200 - 300 year high in global debt (even the IMF said that).

This is a 200 year event.

This ain't gonna' be no Great Depression 2.0. It is going to be like the collapse of Rome from 1.4 million to 30,000 population and stayed that way for 600+ DARK years.

Do you boiling frogs have any freakin' clue why? Look at what the bastards are doing:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6278398

Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
That does happen and Germany has alot of immigrants and workers, but its not without some trouble from its population.   It is good for an economy to receive valid workers but the people may not feel as much if they are outnumbered by people who may not even speak the language.    Kazakhstan is the size of europe but with only the population of a couple major UK cities, they have many migrant chinese workers apparently and risk 'losing' their country to foreigners who never leave.
  Its fairly controversial but there are some benefits to europe from shared resources and it does have this strength there.   Also a ton of red tape and politics and general stupidity so no utopia

Quote
$7.000 is quite conservative.

Also 7000 is an arbitrary figure as any great rise in gold likely comes with a fall in dollar so we are not talking present day values but unknowns.   Eventually gold will continue at the same value its been on average anyway but its possible it does spike as high as previous centuries, apparently Henry VIII's gold sovereigns were an all time high during his reformations.  They are still made today, not much else lasts that long.
If we are blowing smoke, I'll say 70,000 as that'd be inline with similar currency depreciation like Marc Faber has studied in the past.   Look at the rouble, peso or drachma and price gold in that over the years and the price gets silly quick

If we base estimates on past fiat devaluations as below, gold sold at $1300 USA dollars becomes 91, 170 or $284,000 over a century I guess
Quote
The enormous gold sovereign was introduced by Henry VII (Henry VIII's father), who wanted a new ostentatious gold coin, which could be worth the huge sum of one pound sterling.

Until this point the pound sterling had been a value, rather than a coin, used for accounting purposes as the equivalent of 240 silver pennies (one pound in weight of Sterling silver). However this new, almost impractically large coin of 99.48% gold was made equal to £1, or 20 shillings, with exactly half a troy ounce of gold - an unbelievable value for a single unit of currency.
Its minted half that weight now so if we presume gold price accurate in both cases then Sterling has devalued 99.5% over 500 years, mostly in the last fifty I think since we dropped silver from the coins.  
So sterling is the oldest still used currency besides gold but almost in name only.  Its no longer silver or gold based, neither is dollar; also originally copied like pound from a silver coin standard
[The 9th century 1 pound silver is £131 now, the 16th century Sterling pound is now £70 but silver itself is less valued now due to south american mines, we cant say gold wont do the same but it hasnt so far apparently]
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
I appreciated very much your views on Europe and especially Germany.  Most of what I read says that Germany is really rockin' even while not mentioning the strong ties that Germany has with the rest of (faltering) Europe.  Your comments balance that noise...   Smiley


Don't get me wrong, Germany is still kind of rocking, at least compared to much of the rest of the EU...

You are uninformed as 0.7% growth (and on a consistent decline after peaking at 4.2% in 2010) is not rocking:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6167555

All of Europe will sink into negative growth later this year or next.

Global sovereign debt BIG BANG starts 2015.75.

And it will be worse than horrific.

WTF is wrong with you people? This is a 200 - 300 year high in global debt (even the IMF said that).

This is a 200 year event.

This ain't gonna' be no Great Depression 2.0. It is going to be like the collapse of Rome from 1.4 million to 30,000 population and stayed that way for 600+ DARK years.

Do you boiling frogs have any freakin' clue why? Look at what the bastards are doing:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6278398
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Germany has problems with its falling population I believe which of course effects working capital in their economy
Spain, Japan also and their problems are more obvious

Actually, he makes the point that if workers from European countries with high unemployment could be moved to countries in which population/work force is missing, that would be a great thing for Europe. Europe is not short of qualified workers.

That's one of very few points in the European chapter that make sense...
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
...

Rickards needs to think BIG re future price of gold.

$55,000 - $100,000 per oz.  Non-hyperinflated dollars.

Long and hard reading, but pretty much required if you really like gold, start way back in late-2009 if possible, although his second newest post is an acceptable summary of his ideas:

fofoa.blogspot.com




I am not FOFOA.  

Smiley

$55.000 - $100.000 non-hyper inflated is a bit much, although not completely out of the question. It's clear though that Rickards stays on the conservative side of estimation there, just to make sure nobody comes to him in 10 years and says: "You said gold would go to $50.000, but it only went to $17.000! You suck!"

It's a good thing to calculate your potential gains on the conservative side, and $7.000 is quite conservative.

I have heard of FOFOA, but have never really dived into his theories.

You said you have read many books about themes like this one - which ones did you like best?
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
Germany has problems with its falling population I believe which of course effects working capital in their economy
Spain, Japan also and their problems are more obvious


Rickards should know about failure, he was involved with LTCM which was a bailout preceding Lehmans


legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
...

Rickards needs to think BIG re future price of gold.

$55,000 - $100,000 per oz.  Non-hyperinflated dollars.

Long and hard reading, but pretty much required if you really like gold, start way back in late-2009 if possible, although his second newest post is an acceptable summary of his ideas:

fofoa.blogspot.com




I am not FOFOA.  

Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
I appreciated very much your views on Europe and especially Germany.  Most of what I read says that Germany is really rockin' even while not mentioning the strong ties that Germany has with the rest of (faltering) Europe.  Your comments balance that noise...   Smiley


Don't get me wrong, Germany is still kind of rocking, at least compared to much of the rest of the EU. But it won't be able to carry that weight forever, and the overall situation gets worse and worse. Anyways, I couldn't believe my eyes when I read about "positive real interest rates". Actually, reading that passage again, Rickards is probably refering to the Eurozone, and not to Germany, but it's bullshit anyways. The Eurozone interest rate is 0,25% and inflation is 0,50% and must have been higher when the book was written. But even now the real interest rate is negative (-0,25%).

Btw, Rickards says that gold would have to be re-evaluated to at least $7.000 - $9.000, was it to be used for an (even partial) gold standard. That calculation makes sense.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
...

@ Dr Bloggood and fellow BTC Talkers interested in money

Thank you for the review, Doc!  I have read many books that are in this general "space", and believe that our monetary systems are in peril for several reasons.

I appreciated very much your views on Europe and especially Germany.  Most of what I read says that Germany is really rockin' even while not mentioning the strong ties that Germany has with the rest of (faltering) Europe.  Your comments balance that noise...   Smiley

While I believe that a full-blown collapse of the financial system is unlikely (that is, taking us to a "Mad Max" or TEOTWAWKI...), there is an excellent chance of what I call "Great Depression v. 2".  Where it gets very hard to get work, crime goes up (typical in very hard times) and a variety of ugly after-effects.  The probability of something bad is pretty high, IMO.  And it will be worldwide.

What to do?  Saving money, in various forms (gold, BTC, etc.) is part of the equation.  Getting out of debt.  Owning other hard assets, including CA$H at home.  And depending on how severe you think our system might crash: guns & ammo, water & food, etc...  The big question is, how much (and how) do you prepare?  That depends on your level of financial paranoia (I am financially paranoid) and your own situation.

Excellent thread!
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Just found a cover for this book:




Smiley A graveyard of fiats.   


Yeah, I spent a lot of time with that cover over the last couple of days...

I love it, it's the equivalent of the "Currency Wars" cover, with bills of different currencies shooting at each other.
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