As I’m sure you all know John McAfee famously tweeted on July 17 2017 when BTC was at $2,245, that he would eat his appendage if BTC wasn’t worth $1M by the end of 2020 - and he’d upped that from an earlier prediction of $500K! And he’s stuck strenuously to that line up to now, making him a famous or infamous man!
I recently put up a simple log chart of bitcoins long-term growth trend line from 2010 to Mar 2018 and beyond https://imgur.com/gallery/9iF3t . As you can see my best fit extrapolation line of BTC’s growth over the last 8 years if it continues the same, has it at a price of ‘only’ 50K by the end of 2020 - and not hitting the magic 1 million until 2025. Mr M take note - you’ll be eating your dick hehe! And ANN before you jump on me for making a crazy long term ‘prediction’ - I again emphasise that long-term extrapolation is an interesting exercise especially for bitcoin believers at times of FUD, but it’s in no way meant to be taken as predictive of what will happen in the future.
But McAfee was even more optimistic working off a mathematical model that had an even steeper upward hyperbolic growth rate, much like this interesting Rainbow Bitcoin Moon Model that a group of subredditors maintain https://www.moonmath.win/ - which as recently as yesterday (04/04/2018) was predicting a BTC price of 1 million on 31/12/2020 in that last column under the graph, which looks at projected growth of BTC using prices from “July 2010 to Apr 2018”. Today I note that predicted 1 million BTC date has slipped to 24/08/2021, with BTC’s 7% fall in the last 24/24 to $6,850 - volatility noted!
And here’s a very nice site that uses McAfee’s prediction and continued upward parabolic upward growth of BTC to show if he’s on target or not- https://bircoin.top/ , and it links to his original famous July 2017 tweet - wonder if he’ll leave that up to end 2020? And hey as in all things in life I believe there has to be some light-hearted stuff in crypto, as well as all the serious stuff!
As you can see from the chart on the site interestingly McAfee was well on target up until now, and it’s only in the last week that the BTC price has fallen below that hyperbolic upwards growth line - which today was at 7.9K. And if you slide the slider all the way to the right to Dec 2020, you’ll see how dramatic BTC’s historic parabolic growth rate looks on a linear price chart when its continued for another 3 years to fit in exactly with McAfee’s 1 million BTC at end 2020 tweet - and which is pretty what BTC’s price is projected to do with continuation of its historic growth rate on the Rainbow chart, and in my chart but at a slower rate of rise that I hand-drew to I think fit the historic data better.
It all looks so impossible on the linear price chart, which is why I like to look at the log chart of BTC’s price, and if you click on the “all (log)” button on the bitcoin.top site you’ll see the BTC long term trend growth line in linear fashion like mine - but with the one to fit in with McAfee’s prediction rising at a steeper angle than mine. But again remember that this isn’t predictive except for what McAfee said, and the continued upward parabolic growth on the eat-a-dick site is instead showing what BTC needs to do to save John’s manhood!
But hey it was a brave call by John to make that prediction in July 17 when BTC was at an ATH of 2.2K wasn’t it, and I wonder how many of us at the time would have thought that BTC would do 9x and hit an ATH of 19K exactly 5 months after his July tweet and before the year was out - but hey he’s doing okay reportedly charging $105K for a sponsored tweet about an ICO or shitcoin to his 813K Twitter followers - many of whom no doubt followed him after his infamous July 17 tweet which raised his profile in the crypto and general community enormously hmmmm. He played it well, but I wonder what comments someone on here would have got if they’d posted a prediction in July last year when it was at 2.2K that BTC would have a 2017 high of $19K - and link me if you know of any threads like that. They make interesting reading looking back with the benefit of hindsight of course, like many of the threads that come up now from Oct/Nov last year or Jan/Feb this year.
I personally don’t believe that BTC can get to 1 million by the end of 2020, but it MIGHT 5 or 10 or 20 years later. And I don’t know what to make of McAfee and his flashy lifestyle, but I don’t believe he’ll eat his dick for New Year’s Day dinner 2021- but who knows, and maybe there’s a twist in the tale and an angry lovers already cut his dick off and he could fix a sausage there for the meal haha.
But seriously I think it’s been a topic worth looking at, and I’m interested in what others think of the BTC price prediction in his tweet from July last year that he was adamant about! And what you think of whether that hyperbolic upward growth rate that BTCs been doing for the last 8 years will continue long-term enough to save John’s bacon, or whether BTCs going to splutter and stop growing parabolically? And my best guess is that I believe we will see continued growth to a 1 million BTC due to continued increase in use and ownership and it being increasingly sought after as a finite store of value, but I think the continued parabolic growth to achieve that using the historic data will be slower than McAfee predicts - and that we won’t see a 1 million BTC until at least the second half of the next decade or later! And finally if you can take the man seriously, is John going to eat that dick he reportedly uses a lot or not?
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