It's one of those cases where you want both sides to lose, heh.
It would be genuinely astounding to me if it turns out they really do have $14 billion USD in reserve, but something tells me they're never going to attempt to prove that's the case. Last I heard of this ongoing farce, they'd amended their T&Cs to state that other assets may be used to back Tether, but didn't go into much further detail about what those assets might be.
Personally i find it really difficult to believe that so much fiat money ( roughly 10 billion usd between jan to September) could have flown into crypto markets at a time of so much financial turmoil/ consolidation all over the world. The most likely scenario to me is that there is a very high demand from people for tether/stable coins but most of this demand is being met by using crypto currencies as collateral rather than actual USD.
I.e People selling bitcoins on exchanges for tether and the exchanges then requesting more tether from Bitfinex/ tether corp and tether subsequently printing the same and sending it over (this would then explain the large 250 million batches). Again this new tether would have then be printed using Bitcoins/cryptos as collateral since one could safely assume that even most exchanges combined would not have 10 billion in fiat to send to Tether over 6-7 months.
I'll take this opportunity to give the usual reminder that people should only have funds on exchanges that they can afford to lose, particularly in the case of Bitfinex at the moment. Also, if anyone currently has large sums stored in USDT, consider hedging with some other stablecoins (although, personally, they all sound as scammy and dangerous as each other to me, so I don't actually recommend holding any of them).
Completely agree with you, i mean if something does happen to tether then yea any money o bitfinex will most likely be gone, while other exchanges will also be hard hit( Many will just close while the bigger ones might impose haircuts on all user funds they possesses.
And while no one can tell you with any surety whether tether actually has the funds or not( They have already admitted that its not 100% backed by cash but with equivalent, who is to say what this is but i am guessing its most likely backed by Bitcoin or god forbid some other altcoin.)
And while the nature of crypto trading means that there will always be a need for users to move into stable coins from time to time given the ongoing investigations and given how elusive Bitfinex/tether have been in general towards providing any concrete data on it, it just makes sense to use some other stable coin given that there are other choices available (PAX, TUSD, USDC etc). I Mean even if you think that all of the tether stuff is FUD why put your own funds at risk.
That being said if tether does get taken down i couldn't really say how many other stable coins would survive or be able to maintain their own pegs.