My guess is bitmaintech is refitting their mine.
Yesterday the blocks were 137.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
today we are on pace for 130 maybe 125
Bitmaintech is now listing the s-5's as used gear. I believe they are selling them all off. I also think they are not rushing to fire new gear up at the moment. Thus diff dropped hard yesterday and today.
Lets say they packed up 3000 or 4000 s-5's for sale. That is 3.5 to 4.6th about 1 to 1.5% if they do not put s-7 or s-5+ on line while they pack up a few thousand used s-5's they get 2 full weeks of a lower rate.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (+1.37%) dropping like a stone. we could be negative in a day
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 52,993,476,422 (+1.37%)
Adjust time: After 404 Blocks, About 2.8 days
Hashrate(?): 367,790,006 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated: 12:30 (2.9 minutes ago)
If we do 124 today and 124 tomorrow we are negative.
Topic: July 25th to Aug 8th diff thread - page 3. (Read 6410 times)
Really big drop in diff today. So much wonder why.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
8 1 2015--------157 +13 +20
8 2 2015--------151 + 7 +27
8 3 2015--------156 +12 +39
8 4 2015--------137 -7 +32
1541 made so far so 1541/1509 = (+2.12%) still less then the 2.92% prediction below.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+2.92%)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 53,806,269,712 (+2.92%)
Adjust time: After 475 Blocks, About 3.2 days
Hashrate(?): 378,178,298 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29. minutes
6 blocks: 58.5 minutes
according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts
we had :
130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July 9th 2015
130 day July 4th 2015
In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015
are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015
So we can get a decent swing over the next 475 blocks left.
The Aug 4 number of 137 dropped us close to 2%
3 days at 137 and I think we would be close to 0.50%
Good luck to all.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
8 1 2015--------157 +13 +20
8 2 2015--------151 + 7 +27
8 3 2015--------156 +12 +39
1491 made so far so 1491/1452 = (+2.68%) still less then the 4.66% prediction below.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+4.66%)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 54,715,412,465 (+4.66%)
Adjust time: After 525 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?): 400,528,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.3 minutes
according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts
we had :
130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July 9th 2015
130 day July 4th 2015
In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015
are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015
So we can get a decent swing over the next 525 blocks left.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
8 1 2015--------157 +13 +20
8 2 2015--------151 + 7 +27
1256 made so far so 1256/1229 = (+2.19%) still less then the 2.47% prediction below.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+2.47%)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 53,568,040,299 (+2.47%)
Adjust time: After 760 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?): 388,663,912 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated: 22:40 (5.5 minutes ago)
The number have become close we are +27 blocks with 760 blocks left things are up in the air. A drop off can happen since a couple of 130 days brings us under 0 by 1 block
according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts
we had :
130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July 9th 2015
130 day July 4th 2015
In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015
are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015
So we can get a decent swing over the next 760 blocks left.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
8 1 2015--------157 +13 +20
1176 made so far so 1176/1156 = (+1.73%) so in 2 days with a 150 and a 157 we jumped from 0.12% to 1.73% still far less then the 4.47% prediction below.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 54,614,884,940 (+4.47%)
Adjust time: After 840 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?): 399,368,080 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated: 7:30 (2.2 minutes ago)
Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.
I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?
I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?
It's just a lottery with a fairly low chance of winning. Not sure if that's really such an attractive opportunity for account farmers, milking sig campaigns is easier I guess. But as guys already mentioned we can easily add "only full+ members" or similar rule if that becomes a problem.
The BTC is coming from my mining revenue. Slow difficulty growth for the past year or so has been wonderful for mining, puts me in a sharing mood
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
okay each diff adjustment that number starts at 2016 and count down to 0
so
when 2016 - 300 = 1716 that is the start of picks
when 2016 -1000 = 1016 that is the end of picks
we are at
2016 -1053 = 963 so picks are ended but winner comes in 963 blocks with the new adjustment. so you are in the running.
Some back ground on why we did it like this.
We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11% and the closest to the real number won.
but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11% they would pick 1.10% and 1.12% so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.
so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.
We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.
that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.
so we start picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000. so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.
We also speculate on why diff moves about. or stays stable. if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high . 20% every 2 weeks for about a year. to lower like now 2% for about a year.
I see. Thank you for the explanation!
Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.
But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.
Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?
yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks. If that happens I think we would cancel it.
Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.
I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?
There is a kind benefactor. And sign campaigns are not bad if used right, but I will not get into that here not sure what crazy things you mean. They keep it pretty well in check between campaign managers and mod admins.
But yes if a bunch of new accounts start guessing it would be noticed. So far there has not needed to be rules as normally speculation is users who have been here a while. But if someone signs up with multiple accounts and takes guesses, i'm sure rules can be added.
Difficulty like rest of summer is still looking good:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 53,720,691,762 (+2.76%)
Adjust time: After 930 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?): 380,119,309 GH/s
Price is going down a little this period around 282 on coinbase.
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
okay each diff adjustment that number starts at 2016 and count down to 0
so
when 2016 - 300 = 1716 that is the start of picks
when 2016 -1000 = 1016 that is the end of picks
we are at
2016 -1053 = 963 so picks are ended but winner comes in 963 blocks with the new adjustment. so you are in the running.
Some back ground on why we did it like this.
We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11% and the closest to the real number won.
but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11% they would pick 1.10% and 1.12% so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.
so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.
We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.
that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.
so we start picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000. so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.
We also speculate on why diff moves about. or stays stable. if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high . 20% every 2 weeks for about a year. to lower like now 2% for about a year.
I see. Thank you for the explanation!
Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.
But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.
Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?
yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks. If that happens I think we would cancel it.
Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.
I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
okay each diff adjustment that number starts at 2016 and count down to 0
so
when 2016 - 300 = 1716 that is the start of picks
when 2016 -1000 = 1016 that is the end of picks
we are at
2016 -1053 = 963 so picks are ended but winner comes in 963 blocks with the new adjustment. so you are in the running.
Some back ground on why we did it like this.
We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11% and the closest to the real number won.
but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11% they would pick 1.10% and 1.12% so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.
so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.
We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.
that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.
so we start picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000. so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.
We also speculate on why diff moves about. or stays stable. if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high . 20% every 2 weeks for about a year. to lower like now 2% for about a year.
I see. Thank you for the explanation!
Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.
But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.
Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?
yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks. If that happens I think we would cancel it.
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
okay each diff adjustment that number starts at 2016 and count down to 0
so
when 2016 - 300 = 1716 that is the start of picks
when 2016 -1000 = 1016 that is the end of picks
we are at
2016 -1053 = 963 so picks are ended but winner comes in 963 blocks with the new adjustment. so you are in the running.
Some back ground on why we did it like this.
We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11% and the closest to the real number won.
but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11% they would pick 1.10% and 1.12% so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.
so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.
We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.
that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.
so we start picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000. so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.
We also speculate on why diff moves about. or stays stable. if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high . 20% every 2 weeks for about a year. to lower like now 2% for about a year.
I see. Thank you for the explanation!
Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.
But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.
Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
okay each diff adjustment that number starts at 2016 and count down to 0
so
when 2016 - 300 = 1716 that is the start of picks
when 2016 -1000 = 1016 that is the end of picks
we are at
2016 -1053 = 963 so picks are ended but winner comes in 963 blocks with the new adjustment. so you are in the running.
Some back ground on why we did it like this.
We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11% and the closest to the real number won.
but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11% they would pick 1.10% and 1.12% so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.
so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.
We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.
that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.
so we start picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000. so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.
We also speculate on why diff moves about. or stays stable. if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high . 20% every 2 weeks for about a year. to lower like now 2% for about a year.
Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
The round is not over yet
You're not talking about this?;
Adjust time: After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days
Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!
I am joking, but;
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +2.5%
I am joking, but;
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +2.5%
yeah you would stand a good chance. with a 10x size range.
the results come in about 965 blocks your +0.01% to +0.25% is a lot closer then bitcoinwisdom's current prediction shows.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 53,686,766,250 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (+2.69%) this is a future guess on thier part
Adjust time: After 967 Blocks, About 6.6 days
Hashrate(?): 388,679,931 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated: 13:25 (1.1 minutes ago)
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ has us at (+1.56%) this is more of a current number
Blocks 367961
Total BTC 14.449M
Difficulty 52278304846
Estimated 53094219903 in 967 blks
Network total 419434.064 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 6.72 / 535 s
Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!
I am joking, but;
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +2.5%
I am joking, but;
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +2.5%
curent picks are below:
Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%
tlhIlwI -0.01% to -0.25%
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%
I cleaned this up and added
VirosaGITS ---------- +0.01% to +0.25%
tlhIlwI---------------- -0.01% to -0.25%
I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed
just checked we have made 1027 blocks
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+2.85%)
Bitcoin Difficulty: 52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty: 53,768,921,104 (+2.85%)
Adjust time: After 989 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?): 387,325,664 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated: 10:5 (4.3 minutes ago)
curent picks are below:
Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%
tlhIlwI -0.01% to -0.25%
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +0.25% corrected my error
edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%
I clean this up and added
VirosaGITS ---------- +0.01% to +0.25%
tlhIlwI---------------- -0.01% to -0.25%
I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed
Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%
tlhIlwI -0.01% to -0.25%
VirosaGITS +0.01% to +0.25% corrected my error
edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%
I clean this up and added
VirosaGITS ---------- +0.01% to +0.25%
tlhIlwI---------------- -0.01% to -0.25%
I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
we made 957 we are +7 so 957/950 = ( +0.73% ) this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom of (3.00%).
I not sure why the real number made and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.
Now if we pull 5 days at 150 + then the 3% looks pretty good.
right now under 1% looks real and possible
Bitcoinwisdom's current predicted number is always highly influenced by the last diff change.
If the last change would have been 10%, i'm sure we would see worst then 2,27% off as we speak.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7
we made 957 we are +7 so 957/950 = ( +0.73% ) this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom of (3.00%).
I not sure why the real number made and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.
Now if we pull 5 days at 150 + then the 3% looks pretty good.
right now under 1% looks real and possible
-0.01% to -0.25% please
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