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Topic: Junk Picks: NFL|NCAAF|Rugby (+/- Total Bet Units in 1st Post) - page 3. (Read 1845 times)

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Sunday NFL results (picks and odds in bold):


Minnesota Vikings -9 (1.921) vs. Cleveland Browns : Win +0.921 bet units (Betslip)

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets +4 (1.996) : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (1.948) : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Dallas Cowboys -2 (1.966) @ Washington Redskins : Win +0.966 bet units (Betslip)

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (2.026) @ Detroit Lions : Win +1.026 bet units (Betslip)


Sunday Total: +0.913 bet units
Overall Total: +6.638 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Picks for Sunday NFL fun day:


Sunday 29 Oct. NFL (picks and odds in bold)

Minnesota Vikings -9 (1.921) vs. Cleveland Browns (neutral site - London)
My Wager: Betslip

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets +4 (1.996)
My Wager: Betslip

Houston Texas @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (1.948)
My Wager: Betslip

Dallas Cowboys -2 (1.966) @ Washington Redskins
My Wager: Betslip

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (2.026) @ Detroit Lions
My Wager: Betslip

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Saturday NCAAF results (picks and odds in bold):


Wisconsin -26 (1.931) @ Illinois: Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Penn State +7 (1.949) @ Ohio State: Win +0.949 bet units (Betslip)

Penn State ML (3.459) @ Ohio State : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Michigan State -1.5 (1.949) @ Northwestern : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

NC State @ Notre Dame -7 (1.922) : Win +0.922 bet units (Betslip)

TCU -6.5 (2.008) @ Iowa State : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)


Meh, you would think some of these higher ranked teams would be super focused on maintaining their position at this stage in regards to being considered for the playoffs. I'm looking at you, Penn State and TCU. Anyway, moving on to NFL Sunday...


Saturday Total: -2.129 bet units
Cumulative Total: +5.725 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Picks for Saturday's NCAAF action:


Saturday 28 Oct. NCAAF (picks and odds in bold)


Wisconsin -26 (1.931) @ Illinois
My Wager: Betslip

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road matches, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 matches overall. The undefeated Badgers are averaging 256.8 yards rushing per game. Illinois is allowing 29.6 points per game on average.


Penn State +7 (1.949) @ Ohio State
My Wager: Betslip

The Penn State Nittany Lions have won their last 5 road games and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Their defense is allowing just 9.6 points per game on average. Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in its last conference games, but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-4 vs. teams with a winning record. The Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma and won against Army, Rutgers and UNLV - teams nowhere near the caliber of Penn State.


Penn State ML (3.459) @ Ohio State
My Wager: Betslip

See above.


Michigan State -1.5 (1.949) @ Northwestern
My Wager: Betslip

Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, but are unbeaten on the road this season and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 matches in Northwestern. Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Michigan State is allowing 16.9 points per game while Northwestern is allowing 23.3 points per game on average.


NC State @ Notre Dame -7 (1.922)
My Wager: Betslip

Notre Dame dominated USC last week. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.


TCU -6.5 (2.008) @ Iowa State
My Wager: Betslip

TCU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, but 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Iowa State is 9-4 in its last 13 conference games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in its past 12 on natural turf and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Despite Iowa State's success this season, I just can't bring myself to bey against TCU. I still think they cover.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Sunday NFL results (picks and odds in bold):


New Orleans Saints -4 (1.948) (2 bet units) @ Green Bay Packers : Win +1.896 bet units (Betslip)

New York Jets +3 (2.016) @ Miami Dolphins : +0.00 bet units (Betslip)

Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (1.996) : Win +0.996 bet units (Betslip)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills -3 (1.948) : +0.00 bet units (Betslip)

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots -3.5 (2.066) : Win +1.066 bet units (Betslip)


A nice NFL Sunday and a very nice weekend overall when combined with Saturday's NCAAF results.


Sunday Total: +3.958 bet units
Cumulative Total: +7.854 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Picks for NFL Sunday:

Sunday 22 Oct. NCAAF (picks and odds in bold)


New Orleans Saints -4 (1.948) @ Green Bay Packers

My Wager: Betslip (2 bet units)

Green Bay will be without Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), who they have been highly dependent on. His replacement, Hundley, has only 44 career pass attempts. The Saints are 11-2 ATS in their last thirteen road games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.


New York Jets +3 (2.016) @ Miami Dolphins

My Wager: Betslip

The Jets are playing with heart despite a lack of talent. They beat Miami at home earlier this season 20-6. With the injuries the Dolphins have, I think the Jets can again win outright. I'll take the three points.


Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (1.996)

My Wager: Betslip

Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Joe Flacco is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,003 yards, 4 TDs and 8 INTs with only one TD in his last four games. The Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills -3 (1.948)

My Wager: Betslip

TB is 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games on turf. They have been less than impressive thus far and now their QB, Winston has a hurt shoulder. Buffalo has one of the top defenses in the NFL, allowing no more than 20 points in any game and is coming off a bye week.


Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots -3.5 (2.066)

My Wager: Betslip

The Falcons seem like they've been in a post-Super Bowl loss daze this season, having trouble finishing and holding on to leads. I'll take Brady and the Pats to cover despite their piss-poor defense.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Saturday NCAAF results (picks and odds in bold):


Tennessee @ Alabama -34 (1.931) : Win +0.931 bet units (Betslip)

Indiana @ Michigan State -7.5 (1.931) : Win +0.931 bet units (Betslip)

Michigan @ Penn State -9.5 (1.843) (2 bet units) : Win +1.686 bet units (Betslip)

USC @ Notre Dame -4 (1.931) (2 bet units) : Win +1.862 bet units (Betslip)


Smooth sailing today. Will post some NFL picks for Sunday in a little bit...


Saturday Total: +5.410 bet units
Cumulative Total To Date: +3.896 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Adding another college football pick for today:


Saturday 21 Oct. NCAAF (picks and odds in bold)


USC @ Notre Dame -4 (1.931)

My Wager: Betslip (2 bet units)

The home team has won the last four meetings between these two. USC has been playing less than impressive lately, while the Irish hve won four straight in impressive fashion. Notre Dame has also had an extra week to prepare.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Picks for college football Saturday:

Saturday 21 Oct. NCAAF (picks and odds in bold)


Tennessee @ Alabama -34 (1.931)

My Wager: Betslip

I trust Bama to cover here.


Indiana @ Michigan State -7.5 (1.931)

My Wager: Betslip

Michigan State has looked good in its last two games on the road and should win by double digits at home.


Michigan @ Penn State -9.5 (1.843)

My Wager: Betslip (2 bet units)

Michigan has been having trouble moving the ball and scoring points, as well as converting on third down. Penn State is one of the top overall defenses in the country and in the Top-25 against the run, which means Michigan's QB O'Korn is going to have to make plays through the air. Not likely going to happen. O'Korn has just a 54.9 completion rate, 563 passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs. In his last two games, he has zero TD passes and three interceptions. Penn St should win by double digits here at home.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Monday results (picks and odds in bold):


3-Leg 6 point Teaser, ties lose, NFL (odds: 2.500) : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)


Another L for me. The Giants decided to rise up, while someone must have forgotten to tell the Broncos that their bye week was over.

Anyway, staying away from tonight's garbage game with the Colts vs the Titans. The Colts are garbage, but the Titans are too inconsistent to trust covering 8.5 points. That and they are also garbage. Just going to look at the early lines for next week and see if there's anything good to jump on.


Monday Total: -1.00 bet units
Cumulative Total: -1.514 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Steam bet incoming (picks and odds in bold):


3-Leg 6 point Teaser, ties lose, NFL (odds: 2.500)

   1. New York Giants @ Denver Broncos -13.5 (+6) (1.986)
   2. New York Giants @ Denver Broncos Under 38 (+6) (1.921)
   3. Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans -8.5 (+6) (1.976)


My Wager: Betslip

The Giants are a team in shambles and should have a hard time scoring points.

The Titans should win against the Colts, but I don't trust them to cover the 8.5, so I want to tease the line down to 2.5.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Sunday results (picks and odds in bold):


San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins -10 (1.996) : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (1.843) : Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs -23.5 (1.913) : Loss -2.00 bet units (Betslip)


Ugly day today as all three of my NFL picks lost.


Sunday Total: -4.00 bet units
Cumulative Total To Date: -0.514 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Some picks for Sunday:


Sunday 15 Oct. NFL (picks and odds in bold)


San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins -10 (1.996)

My Wager: Betslip

The Redskins are playing at home coming off a bye week so they should be well rested and prepared. The 49ers remain winless, losing to a poor Indianapolis team last week.


Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (1.843)

My Wager: Betslip

The Jags defense has been very solid and their offense is averaging 165 yards per game rushing, while the Rams have had trouble stopping the run. As long as QB Blake Bortles of the Jags isn't asked to do too much and limits his mistakes, they should cover.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (1.913)

My Wager: Betslip

Something seems wrong with the Steelers this season. Ben Roethlisberger, who said this past off-season that he was retiring after this season, played poorly last week throwing 5 INTs. LeVeon Bell still seems rusty after holding out in the off-season. KC, meanwhile is hitting on all cylinders and are the top of the class in the AFC. The only issue KC may have this week are injuries on their offensive line. Their starting center and one of the guards will be out.I still thing the Chiefs should easily cover. Plus, the Steelers aren't a very good road team. I'm putting 2 bet units on this one.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Saturday results (picks and odds in bold):


TCU Horned Frogs -7 (1.998) @ Kansas State Wildcats : Win +0.998 bet units (Betslip)

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide -30.5 (1.931) : Win +0.931 bet units (Betslip)


Both TCU and Alabama dominated in their wins and both got me the covers.


Saturday Total: +1.929 bet units
Cumulative Total To Date: +3.486 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Another NCAAF pick for today (game starts in just over one hour from this post).


Saturday 14 Oct. NCAAF 1% bet, (pick and odds in bold)


TCU Horned Frogs -7 (1.998) @ Kansas State Wildcats

My Wager: Betslip

TCU look to remain undefeated as they set their sights on being considered for the CFB playoffs. The Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. They have a dynamic offense and their defense has been solid against good teams.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Lots of good NCAAF games for watching tomorrow, but just one pick for me.


Saturday 14 Oct. NCAAF 1% bet, (pick and odds in bold)


Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama -30.5 (1.931)

My Wager: Betslip

Even though Alabama didn't come through for me with a cover last week against Texas A&M, they are just too good and should steamroll Arkansas.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Sunday results (pick and odds in bold):


Buffalo Bills +3.5 (1.880) @ Cincinnati Bengals - Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

2 Team Parlay (3.662) - Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)
   1. New York Jets (1.948) @ Cleveland Browns - Win
   2. Buffalo Bills +3.5 (1.880) @ Cincinnati Bengals - Loss

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams -1 (1.948) - Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)


Got rekt on my picks this weekend, both NCAAF and NFL. I'll have to take an honest look and see what I missed and where I got things wrong with my analyses. Moving forward, I'm going to stick with the process and work towards improving my methods and avoid being too results oriented.


Sunday Total: -3.00 bet units
Cumulative Total: +1.557 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Picks for Saturday:


Sunday 8 Oct. NCAAF 1% bets, (picks and odds in bold)


Buffalo Bills +3.5 (1.880) @ Cincinnati Bengals

My Wager: Betslip

Despite key injuries on both sides of the ball, I like Buffalo here and getting 3.5 points. They are in first place in their division and their last two games they beat Denver and Atlanta. They haven't allowed any opponent to score more than 17 points this year. The Bengals' only win this season was against the lowly Cleveland Browns.


2 Team Parlay, 1% bet, (3.662)
   1. New York Jets (1.948) @ Cleveland Browns
   2. Buffalo Bills +3.5 (1.880) @ Cincinnati Bengals

My Wager: Betslip

The Jets have been showing some surprising effort, having won two games this season despite a lack of talent. The 0-4 Browns are just bad. Kizer has 3 TDs to 8 INTs.

For Bills-Bengals analysis, see above.


Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams -1 (1.948)

My Wager: Betslip

Seattle's O-line still has problems and along with having lost their top running back, they don't travel well. The Rams are a balanced team with Goff and Gurley leading the offense, while the defense, which has 12 sacks and 7 forced turnovers for the season, should give Seattle's offensive line problems.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Saturday results (pick and odds in bold):


Air Force Falcons @ Navy Midshipmen -7.5 (1.968) - Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)

Alabama Crimson Tide -26.5 (1.931) @ Texas A&M Aggies - Loss -1.00 bet units (Betslip)


College picks were fail. Appears I didn't give Air Force or Texas A&M enough credit.


Saturday Total: -2.00 bet units
Cumulative Total: +4.557 bet units
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
A couple NCAAF picks for Saturday:


Saturday 7 Oct. NCAAF 1% bets, (picks and odds in bold)


Air Force Falcons @ Navy Midshipmen -7.5 (1.968)

My Wager: Betslip

Navy (4-0) have looked more impressive than Army (1-3) so far this season and should win by double digits at home.


Alabama Crimson Tide -26.5 (1.931) @ Texas A&M Aggies

My Wager: Betslip

This week Alabama goes on the road to play a good Texas A&M team. 26.5 points may seem a bit steep vs a decent team like the Aggies, but Alabama is on a mission to reclaim the National Championship. It doesn't matter if they play a top tier team like Florida State University or a doormat team like Our Lady of Mercy College, they take no prisoners and eat the wounded. And with the College Football Playoff Championship, style points do matter and this will be an opportunity for Bama to display their dominance over all and solidify their top ranking.
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