Just another crash discussion | Bitcointalksearch.org

jubalix

legendary

Activity: 2632

Merit: 1023

This is why you hedge into alt coins about 1/4 or 1/5 of BTC total

so you don't care about bubbles/crashes any more

ok you may have less BTC in the end, but maybe not, and you very may well have more.

if it does have a crash...then alts will go up, covert half or alts to BTC and then wait.

repeats.

later when BTC UP concert half of you gained BTC back to alt

repeat.

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

Lets look at some charts.

The first chart is going to be a 2 month chart with a 12 hour time period that shows the rise and fall of the '11 crash.

The second chart is going to be the last 2 months with a 12 hour time period.

The million Bitcoin question is: Are we in a speculative bubble?

Now for some possible answers.

We are in a bubble

Look at the fucking graphs. You have got to admit they look very similar.

Dragonfly doji, indecision forming... a storm is brewing.

No, we are not in a bubble

There is nowhere near as much uncertainty about the price this time. It's a lot more stable. Also the user base is much stronger now. More services than ever are using Bitcoin.

The real answer

Who knows.

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

OnlyGoodVibes

newbie

Activity: 41

Merit: 0

Further proof that the best way to troll on the internet is to use an unsuitable format for data visualization Grin

deadweasel

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 28, 2013, 11:48:11 AM

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

The area where the three circles intersect and where yokosan put the Bitcoin is Schrodingers bubble territory. It is and yet it is not a bubble and continues to exist in an indeterminate state until the observer observes it. And the observer is of course Satoshi and because nobody knows who Satoshi is, there is no observer and we shall never know if we are in a bubble or not.

It's really quite beautiful.

ErisDiscordia

legendary

Activity: 1133

Merit: 1163

Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

The area where the three circles intersect and where yokosan put the Bitcoin is Schrodingers bubble territory. It is and yet it is not a bubble and continues to exist in an indeterminate state until the observer observes it. And the observer is of course Satoshi and because nobody knows who Satoshi is, there is no observer and we shall never know if we are in a bubble or not.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

Do yourself a favour and look at a log chart to compare geometrically. If you'd like to compare June 2011 to 2013, you'd have to look at exponentials (doubling). A nominal rise of $5 per day is a yawn in 2013, while $5 per day in 2011 made several people liquidate their homes and sell their grandmothers.

What was fascinating in 2011 were gains of roughly 50x in two months. Whereas it has taken well over 15 months to gain 50x since 2012. Bitcoin has only appreciated 5x in the past two months. Very different: 50x versus 5x. Use a log chart and this is immediately and visibly obvious.

BitPirate

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

Quote from: Crazy on March 28, 2013, 10:21:49 AM

Quote from: BitPirate on March 28, 2013, 10:17:57 AM

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

You owe me a new monitor and can of soda.

If you think balancing risk over time is hilarious, you might want to quit dispensing advice in the speculation forum. I think there's a risk of a correction over the long weekend, and I plan to buy back in at the bottom -- or at a marginally higher price if not. Either way, a bit of sideways movement will be good for the market.

yokosan

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: chrsjrcj on March 28, 2013, 10:17:16 AM

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.

First of all.... stop comparing 2011 with today. TOTALLY DIFFERENT AND IRRELEVANT!
Second. We are not in a bubble, there will be corrections, there are no questions about that. But you won't see bitcoin at $50 or less never again unless there's a major flaw in the protocol, quantum computers show up, or any other catastrophe of that nature .
I have no intentions of discussing this. Whatever you say to disqualify these statements will be wrong.

Quoting this now so it can be brought back up in a couple of months time.

siggy

sr. member

Activity: 381

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dargo on March 28, 2013, 09:15:45 AM

What does that intersection mean? Might be a bubble & not a bubble & at peak of bubble = ?

It means Satoshi is the real life reincarnation of schrodinger's cat.

Sigg

Crazy

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 106

Quote from: chrsjrcj on March 28, 2013, 10:22:50 AM

Bitcoin adoption is the goal, but when we acquire new members it's bad? We'll probably shake off some weak hands on the way up (and see some drops in the exchange rate), but as more people buy bitcoins, more merchandisers will have an incentive to accept them. That is the plan, right? Or is this going to be some pseudo internet currency that is a nerds only club?

When we acquire new members that speculate based on get rich quick theory, and then early adopters hoarding so they can cash in on the influx of speculators, yeah, that's bad.

phantastisch

legendary

Activity: 2271

Merit: 1363

Wait , since when is the possibility off the table that the bitcoin accepting Services are growing and that the Price is NOT ONLY driven by announcements. Additionally you need to get the thought in your Head that a Bitcoins Price is determined by for how much YOU want to sell it. Bubble or not , get your emotions out of your coins and stop analyzing every single bag of fallen rice in bitcoinland or cent fluctuation.

yuvadm

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

Quote from: chrsjrcj on March 28, 2013, 10:17:16 AM

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.

Also, this. All charts show $40-$50 as the probable crash site.

chrsjrcj

full member

Activity: 280

Merit: 102

Quote from: Crazy on March 28, 2013, 09:22:46 AM

I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a bubble. Nothing new has occurred since $40-50, not a thing. Except, of course, hype and media attention. But that's about as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

Which I guess is relative depending on whether you're upwind or downwind.

Bitcoin adoption is the goal, but when we acquire new members it's bad? We'll probably shake off some weak hands on the way up (and see some drops in the exchange rate), but as more people buy bitcoins, more merchandisers will have an incentive to accept them. That is the plan, right? Or is this going to be some pseudo internet currency that is a nerds only club?

Crazy

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 106

Quote from: BitPirate on March 28, 2013, 10:17:57 AM

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

You owe me a new monitor and can of soda.

Aozora21

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Its really difficult to judge what will happen because there isnt another market quite like it.. makes it exciting and scary at the same time.. especially for someone who jumped on board late.

BitPirate

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

BTW, while I can't fault your conclusion: "no-one knows", I think it can be disengenuous to compare graphs of the crash with today's situation. They are only similar on the surface ("they are kindof the same shape").

However the Bitcoin ecosystem is in a totally different state of development now. I am NOT saying that BTC is immune to another crash, but that crashes are caused by specific sets of circumstances. Those circumstances aren't to do with graph shapes.

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

chrsjrcj

full member

Activity: 280

Merit: 102

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:08:06 AM

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.

Crazy

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 106

Quote from: BitPirate on March 28, 2013, 10:13:39 AM

Speculating in the future utility of a commodity isn't as mad as it sounds -- quite the norm in fact. Not much point speculating after the fact.

Speculating in commodities is common, true. But stabilizing on a true value? That never occurs because of speculation.

yuvadm

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

Just before crossing the $100 mark, I'm taking some coins off the table. Price levels are non trivial.

Thanks for the post, best of luck to those who remain all in.

BitPirate

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

Quote from: yokosan on March 28, 2013, 09:57:19 AM

Quote from: Crazy on March 28, 2013, 09:35:16 AM

Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.

I agree 100%.

Things will be different in 2 years, but it's not ready now.

Speculating in the future utility of a commodity isn't as mad as it sounds -- quite the norm in fact. Not much point speculating after the fact.

Of course it fills a nice for online services now; but people said that at the launch of PayPal, and now it is near ubiquitous. I believe Bitcoin has much wider potential utility than PayPal.

Crazy

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 106

Quote from: 13Charlie on March 28, 2013, 10:05:22 AM

I paid $33 each for the Bitcoins that I spent last night at $89
That means I paid $16 for a $45 bar tab.

Edit: Nevermind I see what you meant. You still paid $89 because it was worth $89. But today it's worth $94.

Topic: Just another crash discussion (Read 2211 times)