Topic: Just confriming, segwit or segwit2x is going ahead on BTC? - page 4. (Read 5979 times)

Thank you for this partial explanation.
I am still wondering why this upcoming mess is not much discussed...
There is currently so much uncertainty about bitcoin future for me.

99.99999% segwit will lock in in a few days. There is no controversy over this - miners, users, bitcoincore devs all agree they want this!

But the 1m->2m base blocksize increase is still very split. (I know segwit in effect enables 2-4 times more Tx in this 1/2Meg - but only as the wallets/users upgrade).

According to https://www.xbt.eu/ 90-95% of the miners are supporting the 2Mb blocksize increase that will occur at block 494,784 (edit: correcting as advised below based on https://segwit2x.github.io/segwit2x-announce.html).

So we will get an extra chain in about 90 days time. And the chain with 90% of the hash power will be the chain with the 2Mb block size - so NOT compatible with BitcoinCore!

As I have said before this causes huge issues for the BitcoinCore chain - as blocks will take 10 times longer, and also it will take 20 weeks till the difficulty resets (rather than the normal 2 weeks). And even after the reset blocks will still be taking 2.5 times longer for another 5 weeks.

So the big question is whether the "Economy" will move to the BitcoinSegWit2x code or not - i.e. payment processors, shops, wallets etc... According to https://bitnodes.21.co/nodes/ they have not even started to - only about a few % have moved.

If we have a split where the "Economy" goes one way and the miners go the other will be mess!


Obviously 1000 things could change in the next 90 days...
1) BitcoinCore could release a patch to support 2Mb blocks!
2) Miners could stop supporting NYA (SegWit2x) - if this dropped below 50% I think the new chain would die very quickly.
3) Someone else could release a patch ontop of BitcoinCore that supports 2meg block - is trival to code now as can just hardcode a block to switch on.
4) BitcoinCore could release a patch that speeds up the difficulty reduction (like BitcoinCash did) to avoid issue of slow block issue. But obviously massively reduce security of blockchain!

well, yes, to an extent, but BCH does have some value x billion market cap ..... a smaller block change would indicate some value available to BTC, and I think utility. The BCH network has not collapsed due to code or block size problems. Not sure about centralization though.

A small increase would take the wind out of the sales of BCH, silence some of  Blockstream pet DEV theorists and make seg wit 2x independant fork moot.

BCash, aka Bitcoin Cash, aka Bitcoin ABC, has only shown the irony of how the market is not supporting big blocks, while their blockchain is mining blocks smaller than the 1MB blockchain. How dumb was that? Clearly nobody is supporting big blocks with real money.

It would suck that the NYC goons go thought with the hardfork again on November. Thats 3 fucking Bitcoins listed on coinmarketcap, and they will cause a price crash. They will have to run for cover because the hate will be real. The people that want big blocks already has BCash, what's the point of a rushed hardfork in 3 months?
They got a ton of hashrate (in theory) so we'll see what's up.

ok if so then wil lhave Bitcoin, bitcoin cash and the latest chain??
i mean the new one with 2MB for each block??
but this will fork from bitcoin chain or bitcoin cash chain?

None of the above.

Segwit will give us a maximum of 4 MB blocks (the maximum amount of data transferred or stored on disk for a block). Non-witness parts of the block will be limited to at most 1 MB. On the average case, we get about double the number of transactions per block.

Segwit2x is a proposal to hard fork after segwit activates, so we will still be getting segwit anyways. Segwit will activate in ~1 week. The 2x part of Segwit2x is supposed to occur 12960 blocks after segwit activates, and that will make the maximum block weight 8 million units, double what segwit makes it at 4 million units. This means that the non-witness data in the block can be at most 2 MB, and blocks at most 8 MB. However given that segwit2x has failed to produce a proper specification and even specify exactly what is supposed to happen, all of this could change. IMO it is unlikely that segwit2x will be Bitcoin; rather it will probably just become another altcoin like BCH did.

No, it really hasn't.

ok...I see....I gotta admit I kinda feel that we need 2MB blocks as a mix of on chain and off chain solutions, BCH has shown that a 8MB block is feasible....if nothing else....

Segwit is locked in and it will activate on August 23 or thereabouts. Then according to the proponents of Segwit2x there will be a hard fork to 2mb blocks. They say it will happen on November but some are saying that its an optimistic time line.

If it could happen, maybe next year.

Just want to confirm this

I thought is was 2x, but hear now its not.....

we are staying at 1MB.....? or will we get 2MB later?