Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 103.

Bitsinmyhead

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 07:06:32 AM

During my 5 years online poker career, I got 3 royal flush. Chance to get one is 0.00015%. How could I possibly got 3 over a couple millions hands? This is way less than 1% chance. Roll Eyes

You are embarrassing yourself here. If you did the math in your above example you would see the chances of you hitting 3 royal flushes in 2M hands is a lot more than 1%.

Try to read my post again and see if you get my point. I am not saying there is a 99%+ chance of cheating going on, but at this point it would be very stupid not to acknowledge that the chances of cheating is starting to become significant. In my opinion they are now so big that staying invested is -EV.

01BTC10

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Quote from: bitcoin44me on September 30, 2013, 07:11:43 AM

Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 07:06:32 AM

During my 5 years online poker career, I got 3 royal flush. Chance to get one is 0.00015%. How could I possibly got 3 over a couple millions hands? This is way less than 1% chance. Roll Eyes

And?
If you have 1000 btc and you want to make 10 satoshi every day, how could you possibly lose everything (unless you make one bet with everything Roll Eyes

)?
Calculate the probability to lose everything, variance to get the 10 satoshi daily.

You will see.

My last answer

My answer is not directed to you but to those who think that less than 1% chance event is impossible. I already acknowledged that you can't possibly lose. Your system is absolutely failproof.

bitcoin44me

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 07:06:32 AM

During my 5 years online poker career, I got 3 royal flush. Chance to get one is 0.00015%. How could I possibly got 3 over a couple millions hands? This is way less than 1% chance. Roll Eyes

And?
If you have 1000 btc and you want to make 10 satoshi every day, how could you possibly lose everything (unless you make one bet with everything Roll Eyes

)?
Calculate the probability to lose everything, variance to get the 10 satoshi daily.

You will see.

My last answer

integrity42

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 100

How silly are the investors complaining about invest/divesting??? This is obvious when you sign up for the site. It explains that as other investors invest/divest, your bankroll % can change. Its written directly on the invest tab.

Those investing/divesting could also be wrong and magnify your gains. It works both ways.

mechs has shows to complain over and over again about his investment. first convincing doog to drop to 0.25% when he was stressed out over losses, then trying to convince doog that he should cap investment at 50,000 so he can keep his bankroll %.... now trying to convince doog to add a delay to invest/divest tab?

mechs, Your investment on just-dice is *not risk free*. if you can't afford to lose, do not invest

01BTC10

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During my 5 years online poker career, I got 3 royal flush. Chance to get one is 0.00015%. How could I possibly got 3 over a couple millions hands? This is way less than 1% chance. Roll Eyes

bitcoin44me

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 07:03:13 AM

Do it then, easy money. I don't see how it could go wrong.

I already did it.
Did not wait for your approval.

JD profit: 17.36509602 (deposited less).

I am not saying that if you deposit 1 btc you can become millionnaire. But if everyday you have a small goal, and enough bankroll, you can win it for sure.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Bitsinmyhead on September 30, 2013, 06:47:31 AM

Can't believe you smart math guys keep arguing against idiots about this invest/divest stuff instead of using your smarts to do something like this. (The irony is that those idiots are actually correct at the moment, because right now being invested is -EV by itself).

Some quick back of the envelope calculations to show why you should probably all just divest:

Wagered on site: 3.6M
Expected profit: 36 000
Actual profit: -3 000

Site is 39 000BTC under expectations. Now let us simplify and assume all bets made were 200BTC bets. (The actual situation will have less variance than this because most of nakowas volume has actually been on bets less than this.)

Total bets made 3.6M/200 = 18 000

Variance of 18 000 bets of 200BTC at 49.5%: 200 * sqrt(0.495*0.515*18000) = 13 500

Site currently running 39 000 / 13 500 = 2.88 st devations under expected.

Conclusion chance of the site running this poorly by chance: Way less than 1%.

You guys keep saying trust the math, but your conclusion is all messed up. The math is telling you to GTFO, chances of something being wrong here is so high that staying invested currently is -EV!

That's a strong statement backed by calculations. Thanks.

I'm not good enough in math to verify whether your calculation is correct, anyone else?

bitcoin44me

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You are wrong, and if you want to stay wrong, go ahead.

01BTC10

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Quote from: bitcoin44me on September 30, 2013, 07:01:32 AM

Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 06:58:18 AM

They win some bet every months but don't include the losing one in their overall profit calculation.

If you have 1 btc, you can't go to just dice.com every day and end up with 0.01 profit?
You will lose everything sooner or later?

Come on Roll Eyes

Do it then, easy money. I don't see how it could go wrong.

elm

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Quote from: Bitsinmyhead on September 30, 2013, 06:47:31 AM

Can't believe you smart math guys keep arguing against idiots about this invest/divest stuff instead of using your smarts to do something like this. (The irony is that those idiots are actually correct at the moment, because right now being invested is -EV by itself).

Some quick back of the envelope calculations to show why you should probably all just divest:

Wagered on site: 3.6M
Expected profit: 36 000
Actual profit: -3 000

Site is 39 000BTC under expectations. Now let us simplify and assume all bets made were 200BTC bets. (The actual situation will have less variance than this because most of nakowas volume has actually been on bets less than this.)

Total bets made 3.6M/200 = 18 000

Variance of 18 000 bets of 200BTC at 49.5%: 200 * sqrt(0.495*0.515*18000) = 13 500

Site currently running 39 000 / 13 500 = 2.88 st devations under expected.

Conclusion chance of the site running this poorly by chance: Way less than 1%.

You guys keep saying trust the math, but your conclusion is all messed up. The math is telling you to GTFO, chances of something being wrong here is so high that staying invested currently is -EV!

FINALLY! thank You very much for the explanation. not sure if people here want to understand this.

just in case I need a smart mathematician, can I get back to You?

01BTC10

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Quote from: bitcoin44me on September 30, 2013, 06:58:09 AM

Quote from: elm on September 30, 2013, 06:54:11 AM

sorry but this is just not true. either they lie to You and You believe them or they cheat/steal. there is no other way against the house edge.

sure forgot to mention that there are some who have a given time luck until the day they give all back with interest.

If it was not possible to win, no one would ever go to a casino Roll Eyes

And I am not speaking about 1 or 2 times.

That's like Forex markets, while most people are losing money, some traders are making profits.

Head asplode. Now like someone suggested, I'm going back to something more productive.

bitcoin44me

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Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 06:58:18 AM

They win some bet every months but don't include the losing one in their overall profit calculation.

If you have 1 btc, you can't go to just dice.com every day and end up with 0.01 profit?
You will lose everything sooner or later?

Come on Roll Eyes

tucenaber

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I belong to those who believe it's an investor's fallacy to day trade. That doesn't mean it has no effect. The effect is that it increases the variance for everyone else.

01BTC10

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Quote from: elm on September 30, 2013, 06:54:11 AM

Quote from: bitcoin44me on September 30, 2013, 06:27:53 AM

Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 06:24:15 AM

If you think that a gambler can win (long term) against a casino with whatever system then don't invest in a casino.

I don't think so.
I am sure they do.

I personally know some people that do go to the casino (higher than 1% house edge) and win money every month.
Roll Eyes

sorry but this is just not true. either they lie to You and You believe them or they cheat/steal. there is no other way against the house edge.

sure forgot to mention that there are some who have a given time luck until the day they give all back with interest.

They win some bet every months but don't include the losing one in their overall profit calculation. If they would have really found a way around the house they would get banned pretty fast.

bitcoin44me

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Quote from: elm on September 30, 2013, 06:54:11 AM

sorry but this is just not true. either they lie to You and You believe them or they cheat/steal. there is no other way against the house edge.

sure forgot to mention that there are some who have a given time luck until the day they give all back with interest.

If it was not possible to win, no one would ever go to a casino Roll Eyes

And I am not speaking about 1 or 2 times.

That's like Forex markets, while most people are losing money, some traders are making profits.

Bitsinmyhead

sr. member

Activity: 465

Merit: 254

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 30, 2013, 06:48:43 AM

No, the EV is 1.01*bet amount.

Not if there is an unknown chance that some form of cheating is going on, that was the point I am trying to make Wink

elm

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Quote from: bitcoin44me on September 30, 2013, 06:27:53 AM

Quote from: 01BTC10 on September 30, 2013, 06:24:15 AM

If you think that a gambler can win (long term) against a casino with whatever system then don't invest in a casino.

I don't think so.
I am sure they do.

I personally know some people that do go to the casino (higher than 1% house edge) and win money every month.
Roll Eyes

sorry but this is just not true. either they lie to You and You believe them or they cheat/steal. there is no other way against the house edge.

sure forgot to mention that there are some who have a given time luck until the day they give all back with interest.

bitcoin44me

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Quote from: wachtwoord on September 30, 2013, 06:48:43 AM

Quote from: Bitsinmyhead on September 30, 2013, 06:47:31 AM

Can't believe you smart math guys keep arguing against idiots about this invest/divest stuff instead of using your smarts to do something like this. (The irony is that those idiots are actually correct at the moment, because right now being invested is -EV by itself).

No, the EV is 1.01*bet amount.

What do you mean?
His calculation is correct:

Expected profit is 1% of wagered btc = 36 k btc.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: Bitsinmyhead on September 30, 2013, 06:47:31 AM

Can't believe you smart math guys keep arguing against idiots about this invest/divest stuff instead of using your smarts to do something like this. (The irony is that those idiots are actually correct at the moment, because right now being invested is -EV by itself).

No, the EV is 1.01*bet amount.

Bitsinmyhead

sr. member

Activity: 465

Merit: 254

Can't believe you smart math guys keep arguing against idiots about this invest/divest stuff instead of using your smarts to do something like this. (The irony is that those idiots are actually correct at the moment, because right now being invested is -EV by itself).

Some quick back of the envelope calculations to show why you should probably all just divest:

Wagered on site: 3.6M
Expected profit: 36 000
Actual profit: -3 000

Site is 39 000BTC under expectations. Now let us simplify and assume all bets made were 200BTC bets. (The actual situation will have less variance than this because most of nakowas volume has actually been on bets less than this.)

Total bets made 3.6M/200 = 18 000

Standard devation of 18 000 bets of 200BTC at 49.5%: 200 * sqrt(0.495*0.505*18000) = 13 500

Site currently running 39 000 / 13 500 = 2.88 st devations under expected.

Conclusion chance of the site running this poorly by chance: Way less than 1%.

You guys keep saying trust the math, but your conclusion is all messed up. The math is telling you to GTFO, chances of something being wrong here is so high that staying invested currently is -EV!

Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game - page 103. (Read 435357 times)