With regard to Khodorkovskij's "prediction" on the OP that Russia will disintegrate - this is nothing but voicing of a dream and a goal of his masters. This goal has been in effect for several centuries. Here is a short recap of the previous such attempts, often facilitated by the likes of Khodorkovskij:
- 1854 - invasion of Russia on multiple fronts, repelled everywhere, but in Crimea
- 1914 - manipulative politics, which succeeded in drawing Russia into WWI. It had nothing to gain and everything to lose from that war.
- Colour revolution of February 1917 as the consequence of the above, which destroyed Russian governance and nad paved way to
- Coup d'etat of October 1917, when Russia was partially dismembered
- 1941-1945. US-financed Nazi GErmany and its attempt at further dismemberment of re-unifying Russia
- Coup d'etat and of 1991 and the destruction of USSR, staring destruction of a unified economic and defensive space
- Coup d'etat of November 1993 - staged by US State Dept., and costing 2000 people in Moscow their lives, this coup solidified US puppet Yeltsin for further 7 years, plunging Russian into the Wild 90's - its drakes stretch since the 1500's Times of Trouble
Now let's look at Khodorkovskij. In USSR he was head of the all-Soviet Communist Youth Organisation (Komsomol). Under Yeltsin, he was entrusted with administration of the the state oil and gas industry. Through a series of manipulations, thefts, he turned into an "owner" of said industry. By the time he was arrested, he was on literary on the was to board a plane to US, where he was slated to sign a deal, transferring control of Russia's oil and gas resources to some American companies. Khodorkovskij was promised Russian presidency for delivering control Russia's resources, much like Poroshenko was given presidency in Ukraine.
A word about oligarchs. Abramovich was mentioned, and he and his ilk are no better than Khodorkovskij. With one difference. When Putin was elected President, he had to reign in the destructive activity of the oligarchs. One way was through confiscations, but that would create too much turmoil (both locally and internationally - just look how much noise Khodorkovskij manages to create) and be too disruptive to the shaky state Russia was in, so the oligarchs were offered a deal instead. They keep most of what they "acquired", and in return they invest some of that into the most desperate areas of Russian economy and they also stay out of politics. Abramovich was tasked to bring up to speed the poorest and least developed region of Russia - Chukotka, the governor of which he was appointed. In the end he kept both points of the bargain and is now seldom seen on the media horizon. Khvodorkovskij chose the path dictated by his overseas masters...
EDIT: Some relevant reading here:
http://stanislavs.org/the-wild-90s-in-russia-as-reflected-in-peoples-memory/http://stanislavs.org/for-russia-90s-were-worse-than-wwii/