KNC Neptune Refund - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

DPoS

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Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: kendog77 on December 18, 2013, 08:02:36 PM

The difficulty cannot keep going up 20-30% every 10 days. It will eventually level out because it is impossible to add that much hash power to the network that quickly once the difficulty is sky high. Exponential difficulty increases cannot continue forever.

just like the price can't keep flying up like some believe..
@ $1000 per btc, and ~3600 btc produced daily, that is a boatload of new money needed to justify the total valuation.

all the new red tape pretty much snuffed that out short term at least

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 07:53:18 PM

Oups, i calculated for April, not March. So a early april delivery and 20% increase might get you 30-35 btc. A more realistic projections of 30% increase and march delivery will get you 12-16 btc. A June delivery and 30% increase will get you 2-4 btc..

Never ever calculate a shipping date as arriving early. The only thing KnC will deliver in March are more Jupiters. Even June is optimistic for Neptunes.

Zaghomat

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Quote from: Anddos on December 18, 2013, 08:33:21 PM

What do you expect the price of btc to be when the neptunes hit?

No clue, probably higher but it doesn't matter. If you buy mining equipment you should always look at your ROI in btc. If you want to speculate on btc just buy some.

Anddos

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Activity: 378

Merit: 250

What do you expect the price of btc to be when the neptunes hit?

kendog77

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Activity: 742

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Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 08:07:23 PM

No it won't be 30% forever but it will be for at least the next 6 months if not more. You realize that the Neptunes order only (2400 units) add 7200 TH/s to the network? that almost the actual hashrate.

By the time Neptunes hit the network, the difficulty will be a lot higher.

Zaghomat

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

No it won't be 30% forever but it will be for at least the next 6 months if not more. You realize that the Neptunes order only (2400 units) add 7200 TH/s to the network? that almost the actual hashrate.

minternj

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Activity: 434

Merit: 250

People keep saying that but that parabola keeps going vertical.

kendog77

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Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 07:53:18 PM

Oups, i calculated for April, not March. So a early april delivery and 20% increase might get you 30-35 btc. A more realistic projections of 30% increase and march delivery will get you 12-16 btc. A June delivery and 30% increase will get you 2-4 btc..

The difficulty cannot keep going up 20-30% every 10 days. It will eventually level out because it is impossible to add that much hash power to the network that quickly once the difficulty is sky high. Exponential difficulty increases cannot continue forever.

I suspect the difficulty will begin to level out around March of next year after most of the existing pre-orders are delivered, and the mining hardware situation stabilizes. Quite a few hardware manufacturers will likely fail before then.

Zaghomat

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Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Quote from: FeedbackLoop on December 18, 2013, 07:44:55 PM

Also, this is my favorite calculator:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php

I think I should promote it seeing that there are a lot of new people using calculators with diff increases by the year and so on.

+1 This is what I use and it's really good

clenell

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Activity: 420

Merit: 250

Quote from: FeedbackLoop on December 18, 2013, 07:44:55 PM

Quote from: clenell on December 18, 2013, 07:39:11 PM

lol, even at a difficulty of 2.75billion a 3th machine will bring in over .5btc a day. that's a very pessimistic increase in difficulty and you are telling me a neptune wont mine 20btc? what math did you fail?

Not wanting to go too much off topic here but a diff of 2.75 B should be easily hit long before March. If not I invite you to bet heavily on the no side of this bet:

http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/

Notice it states 2B before February. Thanks!

Also, this is my favorite calculator:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php

I think I should promote it seeing that there are a lot of new people using calculators with diff increases by the year and so on.

interesting calculator. thanks (i think)

kendog77

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

If the price of btc tanks and knc gets flooded with refund requests, knc will simply change their refund policy and start denying refunds. Also, keep in mind that it takes 5-10 business days for a requested refund to reach your bank account, do by the time the money gets to your account the price of btc may have changed dramatically.

Zaghomat

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Oups, i calculated for April, not March. So a early april delivery and 20% increase might get you 30-35 btc. A more realistic projections of 30% increase and march delivery will get you 12-16 btc. A June delivery and 30% increase will get you 2-4 btc..

minternj

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

The difficulty doesn't freeze the day you get your miner. .5 a day becomes .4, .3 .2. 1 , .05, etc very quickly. With so many TH miner offerings coming out in Q1/Q2 the projections of exponential difficulty rises continuing is very probable.

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: clenell on December 18, 2013, 07:39:11 PM

lol, even at a difficulty of 2.75billion a 3th machine will bring in over .5btc a day. that's a very pessimistic increase in difficulty and you are telling me a neptune wont mine 20btc? what math did you fail?

And that's your failure. The difficulty isn't going to cap at 2.75B. It's going far beyond that before even a single Neptune ever turns on.

FeedbackLoop

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: clenell on December 18, 2013, 07:39:11 PM

lol, even at a difficulty of 2.75billion a 3th machine will bring in over .5btc a day. that's a very pessimistic increase in difficulty and you are telling me a neptune wont mine 20btc? what math did you fail?

Not wanting to go too much off topic here but a diff of 2.75 B should be easily hit long before March. If not I invite you to bet heavily on the no side of this bet:

http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/

Notice it states 2B before February. Thanks!

Also, this is my favorite calculator:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php

I think I should promote it seeing that there are a lot of new people using calculators with diff increases by the year and so on.

clenell

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 07:17:49 PM

Quote from: Jaymax on December 18, 2013, 07:11:15 PM

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Refund is obviously the best move now. there is no way you're going to mine 20-25 bitcoin with your Neptune, even with the most optimistic projections.

Really? That's what you get for slacking off in math class I guess.

Well show me your projections then. an optimistic one for me is 20% increase per difficulty change and early march delivery. A pessimist one is 30% increase and june delivery and in both case you wont mine 20 bitcoins with the neptune.

lol, even at a difficulty of 2.75billion a 3th machine will bring in over .5btc a day. that's a very pessimistic increase in difficulty and you are telling me a neptune wont mine 20btc? what math did you fail?

Zaghomat

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Quote from: Jaymax on December 18, 2013, 07:11:15 PM

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Refund is obviously the best move now. there is no way you're going to mine 20-25 bitcoin with your Neptune, even with the most optimistic projections.

Really? That's what you get for slacking off in math class I guess.

Well show me your projections then. an optimistic one for me is 20% increase per difficulty change and early march delivery. A pessimist one is 30% increase and june delivery and in both case you wont mine 20 bitcoins with the neptune.

Anddos

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

Now i understand why knc sold hardware and not just mined them self,but they might have big big problems if people want refunds now and they used that money to buy supplys with.

Jaymax

member

Activity: 77

Merit: 10

Quote from: Zaghomat on December 18, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Refund is obviously the best move now. there is no way you're going to mine 20-25 bitcoin with your Neptune, even with the most optimistic projections.

Really? That's what you get for slacking off in math class I guess.

Jaymax

member

Activity: 77

Merit: 10

Quote from: RickJamesBTC on December 18, 2013, 05:05:05 PM

Buy back twice what you spent in bitcoin now. As the price goes back up, you will have received your Neptune for free. How do people not get this!

Because it's wrong - as the price goes back up, you won't have received a Neptune at all.

I'm frigging delighted I ordered & paid for my Neptune as the currency was peaking relative to USD. It cost me a lot less coin than if they announced it today (and I might not have been able to afford it if they did)

Sure, you'll have your coins, and you might cash one in from time to time, or you might not, but at least you'll have them, right?

Whereas if you have an actual Neptune, as the price goes back up, not only will you have received your Neptune for free, but you'll ALSO get a significant income on top of it, for a while anyhow. How do people not get this?

Topic: KNC Neptune Refund - page 2. (Read 3300 times)