Topic: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement - page 178. (Read 452224 times)

I wonder if Havelock was considered as a listing location for LRM. It seems they've withstood the test of exchanges where bitfunder and even btct.co didn't.

I was thinking the same as you, but maybe we can hold off on promoting anything until the TH are pointed our way and the bond prices better reflect our power/outlook.  Mining equipment is being vacuumed up at the moment, so LRM may be one of the best ways for noobs to get in without a major delay (and the rest of the issues with home mining).  Do you have any ideas on how we'd go about it?  How to make buying and selling easier?

So how did people come to find out about LRM?  BFL forums?  Google search?  Bitfunder?

I'm curious to how we can attract more interest to LRM.  Especially with the recent exchange rate runup and media exposure.

Plot Twist,

Waldo finds himself

Just because it had to be done:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTWKbfoikeg

Rock on LRM

Crowds demand answers.
But the King Labrat is Sick.
Such is Life.  Boo Hoo.

Looks good rusty.

Would you make a chart? LR isn't updating the one on his website. Ifso, my input on how one chart might be layed out:

Combine as LR does, the hash-rate and difficulty onto one chart. But do this so that the Y-axis of the left and right sides are proportionately scaled. For example, let's say the lowest value on the Y axis on one side is 100GH/s and the top of the Y-axis is 100TH/s. That is 1000x increase from top to bottom on the axis. Then, make sure the other Y-axis scale has the same proportion. So, it might read Difficulty 30.5 million at the lowest part of the scale. Ifso, the top of the scale should read 30.5 billion. The reason is simply to visually see how fast each changes compared to the other.

Maybe, even make a chart of accumulating ROI based on dividends. I've kinda given up for now on the idea that bonds can be sold easily for what they were purchased, unless these bitcoin prices remain high, and LR buys disproportionately more hardware on the 25% returns... something I have not though enough about, which could save LR from being like a ROI quagmire.

Very nice Rusty.  Thanks for the effort!

Thank you rustyh17 

Very useful.

LRMers One and All,

I have been running an analysis spreadsheet for some time. It has served me well, but I figured I'd
share with everyone to see if it passes your scrutiny. I have used it (mostly) to figure out how much
hash rate LRM is (on average) providing each week and to figure out what dividend ROI we had seen
to date. Here is the share folder. I will be updating this on a fairly regular basis, so keep the share
folder URL if you find it useful.

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bw3222MuvkMCMmI0TFFFNXUybUk&usp=sharing

Summary:

1. DivROI = 10.49% to date   <---- this is based on 0.15 BTC/share price
2. Current total has MH/sh = 141.5   <---- we get 75% of this
3. Current total GH/s = 7,850.89 <---- this is a time averaged, no variance, rough value (we get 75% of this)
4. The Difficulty projections are based on http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty and I've projected 20% per period
    into the future. This will be adjusted as necessary as the future unfolds.
5. $/BTC is based on blockchain.info chart data.
6. 08/24/13 GH/s hash rate jump was not real, rather based on accidently paying double dividends.
7. DivROI shown is cumulative week to week.

Input, suggestions, and corrections welcomed.

Rusty

Rev 1: Added basis for ROI % and clarifications on assumptions in 4 thru 7.

I think you should ONLY do things based on recommendations backed by reasonable math. Why would making reinvestment 100% improve the value of the offering, just because it feels good?

The math isn't that hard, and there are just two variables (time to delivery and difficulty rate)

HR=device hashrate you want to buy
NET=network hashrate at time you start hashing (need to estimate)
tau=1/e lifetime of your device (mining half life of the device), in days which also is the exponential difficulty growth rate
CURRENT=current network hashrate
T=time, in days, until delivery

If you guess what the network rate will be when it arrives and have an estimate of difficulty growth rate
HR/NET*3600*tau < the cost (in BTC) of the device you want to buy, DO NOT BUY IT
or if you have an idea of when it will arrive and an estimate of difficulty growth rate:
HR/CURRENT*e^{-T/tau}*3600*tau < the cost (in BTC) of the device you want to buy, DO NOT BUY IT


The approximation is that growth will increase exponentially over the time frame of usable mining. Don't say "it can't sustain this forever" because over the next year it should fit somewhat of an exponential as gen2 devices come out, and it's just a model - use a bigger tau in that case... These are models, you need to figure out what your tau and T's are, and back them up and justify it. Use this for security valuation, hedge against difficulty and price variance risk with futures. Pick a reasonable high, low, medium for those 2 variables, make a 3x3 chart and figure out what you'd need to break even. Invest based primarily on that.

this doesn't take into account electricity, rent - you need to figure that in too.

background:
I value a device at
\int_0^\infty HR/NET*25*144*e^{-t/\tau} dt
and say that NET can be CURRENT*e^{-t/\tau}


EXAMPLE:

Monarchs, CURRENT = 5000 TH/s, HR=600GH/s, cost ~6.5BTC
valuation is profitable if they deliver in 2 months and difficulty tau is 50 days (82% per month)

IMHO there are two many unknown variables to get any meaningful recommandation based on any math. Mainly unpredictable difficulty and because we don't see volume pricing Lab_Rat is getting. However my gut feeling and common sense is telling me we should be in the try-to-keep-up-with-difficulty mode whatever it costs (in other words 100% reinvestment).

The more I think about it, the more I would love to have different contract with Lab_Rat, which would be e.g. like this: For the funds you got during the first round of funding, you must control at least 1% of total bitcoin network hashrate and pay all excesive profit to bondholders.

This would untie Lab_Rat his hands and would LOOK riskier to bond holders, but it actually isn't. The reason is Lab_Rat would have more resources to fight diffuculty, which means more stable dividends in the LONG TERM. And even if he doesn't manage to keep up with difficulty and bond holders would not see any profit, then what does it matter because even in current contract we would not see any significant ROI.  So I'm very glad LR has at least those 14 days mining towards direct reinvestment in the contract.

There's "The Wolf" so chill niggas.

Maximizing reinvestment doesn't automatically mean more overall profits. There are other factors like the rate of the difficulty increases to consider. We have to be very careful in calculating this. I sure would like to see someone do some math on this.

I don't get it... If you don't want dividends to shrink forever, you need to add hardware quicker then the difficulty is rising. So you can either blow away the competition or buy new hardware. I don't think first option is viable, so you need to buy new hardware and you need money to buy it. Lab_Rat is no longer offering bonds for sale, so the only way how to get money is via reinvesting profit from mining. The more he reinvests, the more it is probable that the new hardware will bring dividend increase. So saying you want him to point new hardware to mine dividends for us means dividends will shrink FASTER because there will be less money for reinvestment. So your statement makes sense only if you are here for a short-term profit. But this doesn't make sense as there is not proper exchange, where you can sell your bonds. So you should prefer long-term profit, where basically the more you reinvest, the more you gain in the long-term.

Emphasis added by me.

I really hope Lab_Rat updates us about this soon.  I know I'm not the only one who is tired of watching our dividends get smaller and smaller while we wait for this two-week period to end.  Wait, has the two-week period even started yet?

The increase from last week was because Lab_Rat took the dividends of the unconfirmed addresses and distributed them to the confirmed ones, correct?

I can only hope that the increase in new hardware will offset the losses we've been seeing.

Please, Lab_Rat, bring us some good news in the form of hard data!

Cheers heaps for the update. Poor bugger was hoping to get a break a few weeks ago but guessing he missed out on it from that.

Awesome , Thank you Lab_rat & grnbrg for update    

A missive from the Man himself.

Just got this a couple of minutes ago, with permission to repost:



grnbrg.