Topic: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement - page 185. (Read 452224 times)

Man reading your post make me beleive I am taking part in a executive board meeting lol , thanks for collating data & giving all data meaning full perspective

mmerlin -- you're spot on.  The data that I'm aggregating should not be regarded as financial advice or even technical analysis even in a future state.  The amount of data are sparse, and, frankly, it's so sparse that it would be difficult to even calculate an appropriate margin for error.  From a statistical perspective, the whole data set would likely fall into margins for error.  There simply is insufficient data.  But, I will start tracking volume, shares traded, pricing, and yield so that people have *something* tangible.  Ultimately, however, people will have to consider their own risk tolerance.

grnbrg -- thanks for the pointer to when we were capturing to bitfunder data on greater frequency.  Maybe I can find an explanation for those 127 shares.  I happened to have worked for one of "those" audit firms in one of my past lives, so it'll be an interesting exercise.

Numbers taken from these very low liquidity markets should be expressed with huge error bars IMHO. This is very useful info, and I thank you for collecting it and compiling it, but large error bars must be used to stop people extrapolating from very small data sets. (Many people are just really stupid I'm afraid, and will read more into these metrics than anyone ever should.)

Thanks again though, I think this is an important job.

Also, total distributions from 8/10 have amounted to BTC0.012719305.  Assuming the IPO price of BTC.15, yield to date is just shy of 8.5%.

In formulating a model to look at bonds and give individuals a sense of how they may want to position a trade, I noticed an interesting niggling error.

The last "official" excel sheet that LR has posted noted 55472 bonds held.  In the most recent dividend distribution, BTC31.01295233 was distributed, at a per bond rate of BTC.000557995.  I calculate that to imply that held bonds total 55579.  So, 127 bonds in the overall scheme of things isn't so many, but it still amounts to a 2.2% discrepancy from the "official" total when compared to what was distributed.  Not sure how that works out.

I haven't fully mined the bitfunder data, so I don't have numbers there, but for some preliminary numbers, I noted that the week ending 11/9 (our "business week" basically ends on Saturdays, since that's the distribution day), there were 4 transactions that amounted to 183 bonds in open interest.  Total BTC volume was 9.9635, with an average price, therefore, being .0544453552.  That would imply an average yield for that week to be 1.0249%.

This week (week ending 11/16) is not yet done, obviously, but thusfar, volume already surpasses the previous week (up to 5 transactions), with open interest also exceeding, at 209.  Price action, however, is down to .0507093301, down nearly 6.9%.  The downtick on the bond pricing, however, should be taken with a grain of salt since we have many trading days ahead of us.

Anyway, as more data becomes available, I'll see about making the reporting more meaningful.

PM me any thoughts or comments on metrics that might be useful, and I'll see about building some spreadsheets.

+1 , I think AMC is the dark horse which could surprise all.

@lab_rat - have you spoken to Ken at ActiveMining to see if we can get a deal on some of their machines? Shipping is slated for nov/dec

Ugh.  Ok, my bad. 


grnbrg.

meh.  throwing in usd valuation muddies the calculations.  the bonds are priced in btc, divs are in btc, and the whole point is to mine btc.  converting to usd, euro, renminbi, yen, real etc. becomes a rationalizing game.  either the bonds perform on their merits or they don't.

not sure how trusted I am, or how smart, but I could see if I can come up with a semblance of a model per rusty's thoughts and share it.

full disclosure: I own bonds and intend to accumulate.

I totally agree with this though, I don't see how anything has changed and am still feeling positive about everything in general (as evidenced by the respective prices of my buy and sell orders on the other thread). Should probably start downtalking everything though so I can collect some more cheap bonds actually...

As positive as I am about LRM and as much as I usually agree with you grnbrg, I have to say that MaxwellsDemon is correct here in that you can only really make that comparison if you bought btc for the sole purpose of investing in LRM and would not have bought btc otherwise.

That's a relevant consideration only if you keep all your money in fiat and bought coins only momentarily in order to buy LRM bonds.
Otherwise, the useful comparison is to keeping your BTC in your wallet.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the price of Bitcoin has more than tripled since the IPO.  That helps, too.

Edit:  To rephrase that:  At IPO, a bond was worth around $15.  Based on the trades over the last couple of days, a bond is worth... around $17.5.

grnbrg.

I would propose that a trusted member of the community provide a dividend analysis on a weekly
basis to show the cumulative dividend earnings as a percentage of the original bond purchase value.
Last I calculated, we'd received exactly 10% of the 0.15 BTC original price in dividend earnings in the
15 total weeks of this asset's lifespan. We have yet to even begin seeing the large increase in mining
hardware from LRM's Bitfury purchase let alone what 2 weeks of "hardware acquisition mining" will
bring to the table. This asset remains quite promising.

if you assume no additional hardware will be added, you are correct.  that .15 will never be seen again, and a block erupter would've been a better investment.

on the other hand, if you believe that lr will bring the represented bitfury hw online, and he executes on his strategy going into 2014, then we'll be just fine.  you might have difficulty trading the bonds, but the divs may well return the investment and then some.

I would be one of those people as well.

We need a place to trade.

Kinda disappointing that I may never see the .15 I bought these at again.

I imagine once Lab_Rat gets the new hardware installed and running and gets a chance to take a breather, we'll get a nice juicy update on future hardware plans.  Especially excited to see what that might get us since LR has been keeping the IPO proceeds as BTC until needed and the value has about tripled since IPO ;-)

Someone mentioned earlier in the thread here what to do with equipment nearing obsolescence or due to be replaced with more efficient hardware.  I don't think this has been covered yet by Lab_Rat.  It was also mentioned in the thread about auctioning them off to buy better hardware.  I like the idea of a private auction among bondholders.  It would be a small bonus to being a bondholder.  When that time comes (probably not until late 1Q2014 I would imagine?) and Lab_Rat gets a bit of spare time, auctioning off one of the BFL singles might be a decent test.  Or just auction it to the general public for a potential greater total return since most bondholders would not benefit from a private auction either because they are outside the US and would possibly have to pay import tax or just are not interested in buying mining hardware.  I can see benefit in either case.

Whats the status on a new location where we can buy/sell shares? I know there's a thread here, but I prefer a website like BitFunder MUCH more (and I'm sure many people with me do)

Any news on this?

Do not drown in a glass of water =)

Just share a copy, you can put one online and keep the real one offline and use copy/paste, Google Docs allows you publish a read only document. That way he doesnt need to share over and over, only needs to remember to c&p the new content on it.

Yes, but keeping the authoritative spreadsheet online, in a format designed for shared editing is possibly more risk than he is wanting to entertain....



grnbrg.