I thought all the trolls were saying the early adopters were dumping?
Another hero on the forum posted something about the Chinese buying fresh coins off mining farms there and transferring the bitcoins offshore to be sold on exchanges for dollars. That might explain why this bear market has lasted as long as it has against a backdrop of otherwise incredibly bullish news (and potential developments). Everyone is hoping bitcoin can become big in the remittance markets. Perhaps the Chinese are a few steps ahead and defeating capital controls with btc as we speak.
Thinking about it though, that would only account for a maximum of 3600 coins a day selling pressure on the exchanges. It is likely to be less than that as not all miners will sell. However this added sell pressure could continue unabated until the next halving.
My gut tells me this the down trend in price is a combination of large speculator manipulation, technical small speculators trading the momentum (shorts at ATH for year, most small specs dumped already..though chatter loudly on here), increased mining supply on exchanges and a tiny amount of merchant selling. I am not sure the general public is adopting in a big way as the price is going the wrong way to attract attention.
I am not selling now, and will make one more purchase of 80 coins upwards depending upon how low the price drops this time round. My expectation is that we probably are in for more pain, flash crash downwards but turn upwards around 300, on massive volume, after some btfinex long capitulation, with shorts above ATH before they are burned very heavily by a surprisingly quick bounce back up into the 400-500 range. I expect the ETF to be announced at some stage that looking back will show it allowed insiders to accumulate at a very convenient low price.
Predictions are dangerous cypherdoc, but do you have any of your own?