Topic: Last time $3 was "the manipulator"... what now? (Read 4609 times)

Sell 'em if you got 'em.

The longer I watch, the more it looks like (b).

He's basically catching all the pullbacks and letting the rallies run.  Right now he's basically out, just letting the current bout of optimism run its course; expect to see a big wall appear and catch any major corrections, but for the moment there's enough real depth to keep things afloat on their own.

So where we stand today:  First order technicals look great; fundamentals are still crap.  He's getting what he wants: Welcome to bubble 2.0.

people do not seem to be listening 

Dom't be so impatient. After a bust, there is usually a phase of doubt and uncertainty before things go on. Let some time pass, and move slowly for now. I think the "sell-off, counter rally" rhythm is being purged currently. That was pretty strong, so give the market a moment to reorganise.

Not without a fight, it looks like.

WE GOING UP GENTLEMEN! 

I don't know about that.  It is fun to watch large (or large-ish) transactions.

Saw it live!
Time to take a ride on the space elevator.

Somebody just snatched up all the coins at $3.

I've seen a) performed by his/a bot.  There was a constant bid of 147BTC appearing and disappearing at a regular interval.  The bot throws it up to trigger other bots or people to sell into it and immediately pulls out.

The moves we see aren't straightforward profit strategies.  He may be:

a) making counter-moves that we can't see (small but frequent sales, or quick sniping of others' large limit orders);
b) playing a long game, building up market sentiment until he can sell off hard into it;
c) playing a long game, building up public trust in Bitcoin until he can achieve his real goals elsewhere;
d) speculating;
e) an idiot;
f) several or all of the above.

Market-making, arbitrage, technical trading, etc, all still work fine regardless of what he's up to.  The only group that has a stake in what he's doing are the speculators, which is why this is on the Speculation board.  If they can figure out his motive or strategy for the moves in (a), they can make money by leading.  If he's smart and greedy (a + b), he can make lots of obvious moves now to train them, then subtly change strategies right when they think they have it figured out and take their money.  If he's smart and altruistic (a + c), they can make some money while furthering his goals.  If they bet on (d), they only make money if they're right AND he's right; it's better to speculate based on your own research.  If it's (e), everyone loses.

Following blindly without understanding the strategy and knowing how to make the less obvious moves will just make you (d + e).

I think some of us [raises hand] are trying to do just that, but it takes patience. You can't really be a day trader and piggy back the manipulator.

guys, I'm no trading genius, but if there is a "manipulator" that makes moves that are so obvious, how come nobody takes advantage of it and piggy backs the "manipulator"?

This is overstating it. With a lot of coins/dollars, one can push the market for a moment, yes. But even more than for others, there's no easy way out for someone moving a lot of funds, and a wrong decision will be extremely expensive.

That's why I like Bitcoin. It's controlled by nobody; one can only try to act in a sane way. There's no magical loophole for rich people such as bribing officials or using special laws with difficult requirements.

So, I strongly disagree. Bitcoin is NOT just like everything else.

thanks for the chart.

It could be a group of very early adopters. Stabilize bitcoin and get rich goes hand in hand for them.

Strategy? From looking at the chart it might work like this:

1) slowly and secretly buy coins
2) put in very visible big bid wall
3) wait for price to rise because of bid wall
4) sell previously bought coins
5) take away bid wall
(4 & 5 make price drop)
repeat

I don't do that.

I think the bid/ask wall activity is by a well-funded (and heavy-handed, with big balls) aggressive type of market maker.  Having a large portion of the funds in a market doesn't make one a manipulator.  Bid activity may be automated, that is fine.  Its still real.

Wash trading, on the other hand, is manipulation.

Bid 2.25 5799.83
Bid 2.3 3963.66
Bid 2.35 1568.29
Bid 2.4 5524.51
Bid 2.45 1715.29
Bid 2.5 13825.13
Bid 2.55 10921.5
Bid 2.6 7953.12
Bid 2.65 9357.33
Bid 2.7 5274.7
Bid 2.75 3038.33
Bid 2.8 4581.92
Bid 2.85 3018.22
Bid 2.9 4825.08
Bid 2.95 4761.29


Guys, manipulator is still in. This is the basic bid walls the manipulator uses without his massive bid wall. I think he knows that putting a massive bid wall just allows someone who wants to dump coins use it as an opportunity to dump them without pushing the market down that much.

You can see that he usually puts about 4,000 to 5,000 bitcoin mini bidwalls when trying to push up the price.

When the manipulator pulls out, the bid walls are usually like 300-1000 in size. I had many posts showing exactly when the manipulator pulls out, and how it looks before and after.

Please look at my post here some months back before the manipulator went into the market. Look how weak demand is.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.578698

Bid 2.3  290.33
Bid 2.35 767.66
Bid 2.4  371.09
Bid 2.45 92.54
Bid 2.5  4134.71
Bid 2.55 455.03
Bid 2.6  564.83
Bid 2.65 2143.07
Bid 2.7  1357.9
Bid 2.75 1758.15
Bid 2.8  2524.34
Bid 2.85 135.71
Bid 2.9  858.04
Bid 2.95 104.64
Bid 3  8770.97
 

That's not certain.  It could be some millionaire who wants to stabilize value to bolster confidence in the currency.

Even if you assume it's to get rich quick, "How" is the big question.  The strategy isn't obvious to me.


Sure, here's most of November, 30m resolution from $1.00-$4.00, ticks every $0.50:



I don't have time to analyze it, but let me know if you want any detail charts.

Unfortunately MtGox screwed their SSL cert when the big clock ran out and my script quit getting data.  So I don't have anything for December yet.  It's fixed now, but if anyone else happens to have a copy of the data from 12/1 through 12/7 I'll import it and make some charts.