Topic: Less than 80 days until the 4th Ever #Bitcoin Halving - page 5. (Read 868 times)

Definitely more crazy and expect bitcoin to get more expensive because there's less reward for miners and it's going to be a problem for them to not be able to get some upkeep in their rigs if they don't try their best to keep their rigs at tip top shape. In my opinion, the craziness and fun factor of halving parties will only go up even more than the last time until the last bitcoin is mined, that last mined bitcoin is definitely going to be like that episode in Rick and Morty where they visit planets that have a one last debauchery party because their worlds are going to be destroyed.

It depends on the context (how you define supply).

In the context when supply means the number of coins produced, then you are right. The supply is constantly increasing until block reward drops down to zero.

But in the context of market (supply and demand), the supply refers to the coins that are being sold on the market not all the coins that exist. In that case the supply is reduced since miners who would sell their coins to cover their costs (many of them do anyway) would have less coins to sell therefore the supply decreases.

That's a bold and wrong statement!

This will be my third halving. I remember the second halving very well, I actually remeber where I was and checking the block explorer.

After the block passed it looked strange not seeing 25btc rewards anymore but 12.5btc instead. And then I remeber the 3rd halving having many parties around the world. It was I think during Covid so the turnout wasn’t as big but people will celebrated it like it was some big competition.

Wonder how crazy this upcoming halving will be.

I think we are too optimistic about halving. Halving is just a marker of a new cycle, but by itself it's unlikely to lead to higher prices. This is something that people have already pointed out many times: the vast majority of bitcoins have already been mined. The current mining of bitcoins is very insignificant and doesn't affect anything. Reducing the reward for a found block of bitcoin will only have an impact on miners. More precisely, on those of them who have a high cost of bitcoin mining. Most likely, they will be on the verge of bankruptcy. Grayscale will sell its bitcoins for a long time. It will probably be joined by the U.S. government and MT.Gox.
      In addition, there is still uncertainty about further rate hikes. By the way, tomorrow is an important Fed meeting, which may affect the markets.

It's rare to read someone with such optimistic theories, I'm more used to reading things like "what if there was no bull run after the next halving?"

On social networks, we're reading more and more that the massive purchases of BTC for ETFs will drastically reduce supply, but in the meantime the price is still stable...
In any case, I hope you're right and that prices will start to move quickly after the halving, at least we can always hope!
The reward will be extremely low after 2028 and 2032 halvings, I can't wait to see what the market will be like then.

Hopefully it will be a study growth though, same with previous halving years, although we might see the previous all time high getting broken maybe in the last quarter of the year and 2025 will be the banger year. As for the price, I think everyone knows that the prediction is 6 digits, from a conservative $100k, to as high as $180k or even higher than that. So this year is going to be interesting not just on Bitcoin, but the whole crypto market itself. Maybe there will be a few individuals around who have accumulate already in the past years and just waiting for the bull run 2024-2025 and make them millionaire. And with the Bitcoin Spot ETF already approved, it could really help drive the price after the block halving and then FOMO sets-in.

It is crazy when you think about how small the daily block reward is getting. I think we’re really going to start noticing the scarcity after this halving in April. I wonder if we might see a bubble develop sooner than the typical 18 months after the halving we have seen in previous cycles.

Latest increase of transaction fee, mempool congestion mostly come from Ordinals, Inscriptions, BRC20 tokens. Your chart shows that before this wave in 2023, Bitcoin mempools had two other times with high demands and expensive transaction fees, in 2017-2018 and 2021 because of two previous bull runs.

Fortunately, after bull runs, it was cooled down to nearly normal in 2022 before we had crazy contributions and effects from Ordinals. Demands on Bitcoin will continue to increase especially after each halving but about Ordinals, will they stay forever on-chain or will migrate to Lightning Network or some layer-2, I hope they will because it will help mempool and Bitcoin users.

I read all of the above and no one refers to rising fees.

I see the highest stretch of fees ever has occurred in the last 13 months. see below




those number will grow after the ½ ing

and as much as they do this time.

in 2028 even more.

600 000 x 17 500  is 10,500,000,000 so about 500x times the number of all coins ever to exist!
You sure about that?

Assuming the 600k means the coins mined during this next epoch with 3.12 block reward there are 656,250 of them and they are exactly 1/16 of the coins mined before the first halving. But in terms of price, since each coin will probably be at least 40k they will be closer to 24 billions, so 240x times what the coins before the first having were valued at that moment.

So there might be a reduction in number of coins by 16 times, but the sum you have to cough up to cover them is still at least 240 times bigger.  

Hmm i dunno, maybe I'm wrong, but I just seem to remember there being havoc in the mining industry in 2022. It's possible it was more medium sized ones that had to exit the market, but at the very least I think I remember constantly hearing about how all the mining companies were really struggling, and I remember hearing how during the bull market miners were accumulating and not selling their bitcoin but instead using venture capital to fund their operations, and investors liked that the miners were stockpiling bitcoin since it was growing so much, so these mining companies were going way up in value partly because of all the bitcoin they were holding, and then when the crash came they had to be selling all this bitcoin they mined during the bull run for far cheaper in order to stay afloat.

That's my recollection anyway. And I do remember some miners that I had actually heard of by name going out of business in 2022. I don't pay much attention to mining companies though so I really don't remember the names.

Anyway so I don't expect next year to be hearing about mining companies refusing to sell their bitcoin the way they were doing in 2021. I'm sure they will be taking full advantage of selling into the bull run to make sure they have plenty of cash on hand for the bear market.

Yup of course. Diminishing returns of a growing asset. Bitcoin can keep going up forever, but its rate of growth will fall drastically as adoption occurs because there are infinite people with new money to keep coming in.



Going by peaks:
1. 2011 high to 2013 high was about 36x (shorter time period because this was first halving so pre-2012 didn't follow 4 year cycle)
2. 2013 high to 2017 high was about 18x
3. 2017 high to 2021 high was about 3.5x
4. 2021 high to 2025 high should probably be around 2x, on the low end maybe like 1.75x, on the high end maybe 2.5x


Going by the peaks, #2 growth was half #1 growth, but then #3 dropped to only a fifth of #2 growth. There was a fairly major crash in the middle of the bull run for #3 though that definitely kept the peak that cycle much lower than people expected. Given that, I'd expect this bull run (#4) to deliver at absolute minimum half of #3, which would be 1.75x and as stated above that is what I would put as a lower bound, which in dollars is $120k.






Going by bottom to top of market cycle:
1. late 2011 low (I think this was two dollars) to 2013 high was about 500-600x
2. 2015 low (I'm saying $200, I think it did very briefly dump to like $150 or something but the consistent bottom was $200) to 2017 high was 100x
3. 2019 low to 2021 high was 22x
4. 2022 low (~$15.6k) to 2025 high, well going off the above estimate of roughly 2x (~$140k) this would end up being about 9x, give or take a couple x's


Going by bottom to top of market cycle, #2 was a fifth or a sixth as large as #1, #3 was just over a fifth as large as #2, so it each market cycle shrinks by 5x successively. But that would mean this cycle would only 4.4x over the bottom, which would be a price of...$69k haha, only matching last cycle's peak. Obviously that is an absurd statement so the trend of successive market cycle growth being a fifth of the previous one is a very bad prediction for the future.

With only three data points making assumption based off trends has a lot of error. And given that the first data point wasn't during the first halving, and therefore wasn't even its own four year cycle and was very early in bitcoin's journey so price was extremely volatile, we can't put much weight on the one-fifth or one-sixth change from #1 to #2. And given, as stated above, the last market cycle's bull run got interrupted with a crash which resulted in a fairly small bull run, the ~1/5th change from #2 to #3 would also be an outlier. If we could correct these numbers with more data, I think likely #1 and #3 would fall towards the 100x of #2. This is all supposition, but perhaps, corrected, the numbers would be more like let's say 300x for #1 and >30x for #3. forming a 1/3rd trend instead of a 1/5th trend. Which would put this market cycle to be predicted at 22x * 1/3 = 7.3x, or ~$115k peak. Still lower than the prediction going peak to peak.


If we average peak to peak's range that I gave of 1.75x ($120k) to 2.5x ($172k) and this lower $115k, we get a $136k average. Which feels like a fairly good prediction, and would be almost perfectly 2x from the previous peak.



But that's all just playing with numbers. If ETFs pick up over a million bitcoin and major tech companies finally decide to start buying bitcoin and uninformed new money doesn't make the mistake again of throwing cash at useless meme tokens cuz a billionaire was messing with them and instead they buy Bitcoin, well price could go much higher than that. Then again if the public is so jaded in their view of bitcoin because of the years of misinformation they've heard about it, so that the public mostly doesn't even jump in during a bull market anymore, then we could get a peak on the lower end like $110k-$120k, but I guess the upside of that would mean a likely much more shallow crash that bitcoin is used to because it would specifically mean a ton of new and excitable and easily dumped money did not flow in so things wouldn't crash nearly so hard.

You're definitely right about miners having to sell what they mine in order to keep the lights on and rigs running, though I don't remember any tales of *big* miners going bust because they held onto their mined bitcoin.  Not saying you're mistaken by any means; I'm just curious as to who that happened to, because I don't think I read anything about the likes of that.  Then again I don't frequent the mining section all that much.

Does anyone else here think this statement is factually wrong?  Bitcoin's supply isn't being cut in half at all.  The block reward is, and there's a big difference.  I guess you could use that oil analogy, but oil has a very practical use and cutting its rate of supply will most likely cause the price to jump--but bitcoin?  Nobody's using it as a currency, and since the halving has been known since the code was written (right?), I have to think it's already been priced in.

But what the hell do I know?  I'm not going to make any predictions that'll later leave egg on my face, and I'm just going to watch and see what actually happens.  I hope bitcoin shoots past the moon, past your anus, past Pluto, and goes so far that if we can keep in contact with it, it'll help astronomers figure out where the edges of space are.

OP, I think you are wrong about miners. They literally have to sell their bitcoin, that's their business. And remember in 2021 how miners weren't selling their bitcoin and then a bunch of miners went out of business when the bear market hit. So yeah, miners are definitely going to be selling all their bitcoin during the bull run while they are making huge profits in order to make sure they can keep operating through the bear market when profits are razor thin or non-existent.


But yeah its gonna be interesting. Honestly the most interesting thing I think will be how much TradFi investors adopt bitcoin through the new ETFs over the course of this bull run. There's already lots of money coming into those funds on a daily basis. But how long will it last, will people be picking up hundreds of thousands of bitcoin through these ETFs during the bull run? Are a portion of the public going to start DCAing into these ETFs every paycheck through a retirement account, or are we still a few years away from people trusting Bitcoin enough to do that and it'll end up just being more active investors who are buying it? Also the question of will we get another and bigger round of companies buying up bitcoin (perhaps through the ETFs) the way that started in late 2020 and early 2021 but then petered out except for MicroStrategy? If the big tech companies start buying up a few tens of thousands of bitcoin each that'll have some impact on supply and therefore directly on price but much larger impact on through market psychology (hype) as people see major companies getting into bitcoin ownership...or again are we still a good few years away from that?


It'd be great to have a really strong bull run and see the price go to like $180k or something considering last bull run was fairly weak with that big 50% crash in the middle of it and the get-rich-quick noob type of people got siphoned away by Musk to silly meme coins that most of them will probably never make their money back on no matter how long they hold.

There are two ways to predict a new all time high.

First, from current all time high to a new all time high.
Second, from bottom of a bear market to a new all time high.

I would not go in details but generally with both methods, multipliers of growth from current ATH to new ATH or from bear market bottom to new all time high, actually decrease and become smaller from first cycle to a latest one.

Expect to see it continue to decrease more with future cycles.

 Not only the next two halving but almost all the remaining halvings we would never see a huge pump like those old days. If you look the first halving the price did almost a 100x to move to its ATH and then reduce that volatility in the next halving and did around 28x, coming down to the last halving just a 7x was done from the halving day price. If you ask me I will say it will be reduce again more and I see it doing just a 3X from the current ATH to form a new ATH. As bitcoin becomes more popular treated as a store of value then the volatility will definitely reduce.


With the movement of bitcoin price a million dollar price range is definitely possible but in a foreseeable future I don’t think so, we have to do like 15x from the current ATH and that splitted with my speculation of each of the new halvings not having an impact on price more than 3x then that’s like in 5 halving times or more.

So you can simply see that does who got bitcoin below 20k price point are seriously lucky and Those looking to come in now do not need to wait for any retrace but rather invest right when you have the funds available. DCA is better pattern to adopt now

Over the next two halvings we would be at ~21 million bitcoins which is over 99% of the total supply. When you go that high in the total supply cap the remaining halvings start to have less effect on the price, resulting in lesser increase by percentage compared with what we had couple of years ago.

A million dollar is a long way off from where we are now but it is certainly possible couple of decades down the road.
How much of that would be down to devaluation of fiat however?

There is no limit as long as they keep printing more dollars. At some point Big Macs per Bitcoin are a better comparison than dollars: what matters is if you can buy more or less with your Bitcoin 4 years from now.

I just saw your 2nd image to be invalid but you have fixed it quickly. Anyway, it's going to be huge as in huge in a sense that if we're going to compare with the last halving and bull run, we have never expected it to be like that. So, I guess that's always the thought that we're gonna have for this upcoming halving and its effect, we should expect the unexpected. While many are discouraged at these times because they haven't bought Bitcoin at an early age or a few years ago, their mindsets are always that Bitcoin has to do double for them to have double profits. That's not it, it's about the long term vision that you have on it and how it is like having on the safe side of investing. While they have a point but still, nothing beats the slow growth and surprisingly that slow motion will lead it to the unexpected price. If $100k haven't reached last bull run then, the hopes are higher that it will be this time.

We are living interesting times.

If you look closely at the Bitget chart you included in the post, you can see that while from 2011 to 2013 you can draw a diagonal line, the lines you draw until the last Halving seem to become much flatter.

Honestly it looks as if within two more Halvings Bitcoin will only rise by a little bit percentage wise.  Price wise it will continue to look crazy, but this is why it is important to become an investor NOW.  Invest now and at 100,000 Dollars per Bitcoin you will have over 100 percent profit.  Invest at 100,000 Dollars per Bitcoin and you will likely get much less than that.  Because to be honest, how high can it go really.

I really hope we will see millions of Dollars per Bitcoin.  But I doubt it happens soon.  Anyway.  Crazy times.  This is the year that makes things crystal clear to me about how predictable and crazy Bitcoin goes again in the future.