Let me sum it up for you people. - page 3.

mmeijeri

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Martijn Meijering

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 26, 2014, 11:04:50 AM

It maybe small earnings, but home miners that are in the community would plug in, to support the Bitcoin network once the large scale miner shuts down.

I doubt all large scale miners would shut down. A few, perhaps even many would shut down, but the most efficient ones would survive, perhaps running well below capacity. I don't see how home miners could ever hope to recapture a large share of the network hashing power, unless the PoW algorithm is changed.

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: mmeijeri on September 26, 2014, 08:51:04 AM

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 26, 2014, 08:28:11 AM

If difficulty decreases to the point that you could earn a few BTC's, why wouldn't you plug back in?

It isn't just a function of difficulty and price, large miners have economies of scale that a home miner cannot beat. Lower energy costs, volume discounts or internal production, larger amounts of old hardware to switch back on.

We're talking about when costs exceed earning, probably sometime in 2015 or 2016. Once the large shops, and several pentahash gets shut down, difficulty will drop by a large order of magnitude.

It maybe small earnings, but home miners that are in the community would plug in, to support the Bitcoin network once the large scale miner shuts down.

mmeijeri

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Martijn Meijering

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 26, 2014, 08:28:11 AM

If difficulty decreases to the point that you could earn a few BTC's, why wouldn't you plug back in?

It isn't just a function of difficulty and price, large miners have economies of scale that a home miner cannot beat. Lower energy costs, volume discounts or internal production, larger amounts of old hardware to switch back on.

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: mmeijeri on September 26, 2014, 08:13:06 AM

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 26, 2014, 07:53:11 AM

I could easily see difficulty drop in the not so distant future, once electrical and operation costs exceed miner earnings for the large mining farms.

The big boys will be forced to shut down or scale operations, we'll see a negative difficulty jump, network hash rate will flat line or lower, and the home miners will jump in again to confirm the transactions.

Could easily see this cycle happen around 2015-2016, probably closer to the halving.

The bolded part is the only thing in this post that strikes me as improbable. Why would home miners jump back in?

If difficulty decreases to the point that you could earn a few BTC's, why wouldn't you plug back in?

mmeijeri

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Activity: 714

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Martijn Meijering

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 26, 2014, 07:53:11 AM

I could easily see difficulty drop in the not so distant future, once electrical and operation costs exceed miner earnings for the large mining farms.

The big boys will be forced to shut down or scale operations, we'll see a negative difficulty jump, network hash rate will flat line or lower, and the home miners will jump in again to confirm the transactions.

Could easily see this cycle happen around 2015-2016, probably closer to the halving.

The bolded part is the only thing in this post that strikes me as improbable. Why would home miners jump back in?

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

I could easily see difficulty drop in the not so distant future, once electrical and operation costs exceed miner earnings for the large mining farms.

The big boys will be forced to shut down or scale operations, we'll see a negative difficulty jump, network hash rate will flat line or lower, and the home miners will jump in again to confirm the transactions.

Could easily see this cycle happen around 2015-2016, probably closer to the halving.

SMB-2525

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Quote from: david123 on September 26, 2014, 06:21:24 AM

In my opinion, we will likely see some small drops in diff in the near future,
but the general trend is up.

IMHO, we will not see a "drop" until the current generation of mining equipment is obsolete. By obsolete I mean producing less than 1/10,000 BTC/THS/day.

david123

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Quote from: fewcoins on September 21, 2014, 09:12:08 PM

Facts : Difficulty will never lower.

And what is this "fact" based on? Your superior intuition, I guess Grin

In my opinion, we will likely see some small drops in diff in the near future,
but the general trend is up.

fewcoins

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 22, 2014, 12:14:59 PM

Quote from: fewcoins on September 21, 2014, 09:12:08 PM

Quote from: micky123 on September 21, 2014, 05:16:44 AM

Shouldn't it go the other way? If BTC price drops, more people turn off their miners which leads to lower difficulty? Well, i guess greed is all consuming Tongue

Facts : Difficulty will never lower.

Actually Difficulty has lowered in the past:

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hashrate
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014	23,844,670,039	20.86%	170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 07 2014	19,729,645,941	5.3%	141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014	18,736,441,558	8.08%	134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014	17,336,316,979	3.08%	124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014	16,818,461,371	24.93%	120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 17 2014	13,462,580,115	14.51%	96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014	11,756,551,917	12.44%	84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014	10,455,720,138	18.1%	74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014	8,853,416,309	10.66%	63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014	8,000,872,136	14.64%	57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014	6,978,842,650	14.04%	49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014	6,119,726,089	22.23%	43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014	5,006,860,589	17.8%	35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 12 2014	4,250,217,920	11.39%	30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014	3,815,723,799	21.92%	27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 16 2014	3,129,573,175	19.39%	22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014	2,621,404,453	19.49%	18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014	2,193,847,870	22.59%	15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 12 2014	1,789,546,951	26.16%	12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 01 2014	1,418,481,395	20.12%	10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013	1,180,923,195	30.01%	8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013	908,350,862	28.41%	6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013	707,408,283	16.07%	5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013	609,482,680	19.29%	4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013	510,929,738	30.7%	3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 25 2013	390,928,788	46.02%	2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013	267,731,249	41.45%	1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013	189,281,249	27.19%	1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013	148,819,200	32.13%	1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013	112,628,549	29.56%	806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013	86,933,018	32.22%	622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013	65,750,060	29.40%	470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013	50,810,339	35.88%	363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013	37,392,766	19.63%	267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013	31,256,961	19.47%	223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013	26,162,876	22.63%	187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013	21,335,329	10.32%	152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013	19,339,258	23.92%	138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013	15,605,633	28.41%	111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013	12,153,412	8.64%	86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013	11,187,257	11.03%	80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013	10,076,293	12.28%	72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013	8,974,296	16.96%	64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013	7,673,000	14.59%	54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013	6,695,826	38.13%	47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013	4,847,647	10.98%	34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013	4,367,876	19.63%	31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013	3,651,012	11.47%	26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013	3,275,465	10.33%	23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013	2,968,775	-8.64%	21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013	3,249,550	9.06%	23,261 GH/s
Dec 26 2012	2,979,637	-11.59%	21,329 GH/s
Dec 10 2012	3,370,182	-2.00%	24,125 GH/s
Nov 26 2012	3,438,909	2.08%	24,617 GH/s
Nov 12 2012	3,368,767	1.95%	24,115 GH/s
Oct 30 2012	3,304,356	7.55%	23,654 GH/s
Oct 16 2012	3,072,322	0.58%	21,993 GH/s
Oct 03 2012	3,054,628	6.65%	21,866 GH/s
Sep 19 2012	2,864,141	6.31%	20,502 GH/s
Sep 06 2012	2,694,048	10.38%	19,285 GH/s
Aug 25 2012	2,440,643	11.40%	17,471 GH/s
Aug 12 2012	2,190,866	7.57%	15,683 GH/s
Jul 30 2012	2,036,671	9.12%	14,579 GH/s
Jul 17 2012	1,866,391	6.56%	13,360 GH/s
Jul 04 2012	1,751,455	1.44%	12,537 GH/s
Jun 20 2012	1,726,567	9.06%	12,359 GH/s
Jun 07 2012	1,583,178	-0.50%	11,333 GH/s
May 24 2012	1,591,075	-8.20%	11,389 GH/s
May 09 2012	1,733,208	14.89%	12,407 GH/s
Apr 27 2012	1,508,590	-4.39%	10,799 GH/s
Apr 12 2012	1,577,913	-2.99%	11,295 GH/s
Mar 29 2012	1,626,553	8.56%	11,643 GH/s
Mar 16 2012	1,498,294	0.09%	10,725 GH/s
Mar 02 2012	1,496,979	8.77%	10,716 GH/s
Feb 18 2012	1,376,302	-0.24%	9,852 GH/s
Feb 04 2012	1,379,647	5.50%	9,876 GH/s

It's not likely, but doesn't mean it's impossible either.

Nobody is mentioning the past... BTC was 1,100 in the past lol point is difficulty will NEVER drop now ever.

iglasses

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This coming from a guy who just ordered 4 S4's
Tongue

ChuckBuck

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Activity: 1372

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: fewcoins on September 21, 2014, 09:12:08 PM

Quote from: micky123 on September 21, 2014, 05:16:44 AM

Shouldn't it go the other way? If BTC price drops, more people turn off their miners which leads to lower difficulty? Well, i guess greed is all consuming Tongue

Facts : Difficulty will never lower.

Actually Difficulty has lowered in the past:

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hashrate
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014	23,844,670,039	20.86%	170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 07 2014	19,729,645,941	5.3%	141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014	18,736,441,558	8.08%	134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014	17,336,316,979	3.08%	124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014	16,818,461,371	24.93%	120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 17 2014	13,462,580,115	14.51%	96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014	11,756,551,917	12.44%	84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014	10,455,720,138	18.1%	74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014	8,853,416,309	10.66%	63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014	8,000,872,136	14.64%	57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014	6,978,842,650	14.04%	49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014	6,119,726,089	22.23%	43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014	5,006,860,589	17.8%	35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 12 2014	4,250,217,920	11.39%	30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014	3,815,723,799	21.92%	27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 16 2014	3,129,573,175	19.39%	22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014	2,621,404,453	19.49%	18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014	2,193,847,870	22.59%	15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 12 2014	1,789,546,951	26.16%	12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 01 2014	1,418,481,395	20.12%	10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013	1,180,923,195	30.01%	8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013	908,350,862	28.41%	6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013	707,408,283	16.07%	5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013	609,482,680	19.29%	4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013	510,929,738	30.7%	3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 25 2013	390,928,788	46.02%	2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013	267,731,249	41.45%	1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013	189,281,249	27.19%	1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013	148,819,200	32.13%	1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013	112,628,549	29.56%	806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013	86,933,018	32.22%	622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013	65,750,060	29.40%	470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013	50,810,339	35.88%	363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013	37,392,766	19.63%	267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013	31,256,961	19.47%	223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013	26,162,876	22.63%	187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013	21,335,329	10.32%	152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013	19,339,258	23.92%	138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013	15,605,633	28.41%	111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013	12,153,412	8.64%	86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013	11,187,257	11.03%	80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013	10,076,293	12.28%	72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013	8,974,296	16.96%	64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013	7,673,000	14.59%	54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013	6,695,826	38.13%	47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013	4,847,647	10.98%	34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013	4,367,876	19.63%	31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013	3,651,012	11.47%	26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013	3,275,465	10.33%	23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013	2,968,775	-8.64%	21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013	3,249,550	9.06%	23,261 GH/s
Dec 26 2012	2,979,637	-11.59%	21,329 GH/s
Dec 10 2012	3,370,182	-2.00%	24,125 GH/s
Nov 26 2012	3,438,909	2.08%	24,617 GH/s
Nov 12 2012	3,368,767	1.95%	24,115 GH/s
Oct 30 2012	3,304,356	7.55%	23,654 GH/s
Oct 16 2012	3,072,322	0.58%	21,993 GH/s
Oct 03 2012	3,054,628	6.65%	21,866 GH/s
Sep 19 2012	2,864,141	6.31%	20,502 GH/s
Sep 06 2012	2,694,048	10.38%	19,285 GH/s
Aug 25 2012	2,440,643	11.40%	17,471 GH/s
Aug 12 2012	2,190,866	7.57%	15,683 GH/s
Jul 30 2012	2,036,671	9.12%	14,579 GH/s
Jul 17 2012	1,866,391	6.56%	13,360 GH/s
Jul 04 2012	1,751,455	1.44%	12,537 GH/s
Jun 20 2012	1,726,567	9.06%	12,359 GH/s
Jun 07 2012	1,583,178	-0.50%	11,333 GH/s
May 24 2012	1,591,075	-8.20%	11,389 GH/s
May 09 2012	1,733,208	14.89%	12,407 GH/s
Apr 27 2012	1,508,590	-4.39%	10,799 GH/s
Apr 12 2012	1,577,913	-2.99%	11,295 GH/s
Mar 29 2012	1,626,553	8.56%	11,643 GH/s
Mar 16 2012	1,498,294	0.09%	10,725 GH/s
Mar 02 2012	1,496,979	8.77%	10,716 GH/s
Feb 18 2012	1,376,302	-0.24%	9,852 GH/s
Feb 04 2012	1,379,647	5.50%	9,876 GH/s

It's not likely, but doesn't mean it's impossible either.

micky123

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1005

Quote from: fewcoins on September 21, 2014, 09:12:08 PM

Quote from: micky123 on September 21, 2014, 05:16:44 AM

Shouldn't it go the other way? If BTC price drops, more people turn off their miners which leads to lower difficulty? Well, i guess greed is all consuming Tongue

Facts : Difficulty will never lower.

Hmmm.... i feel that individuals will find it difficult to keep their mining rigs going. They will eventually pull out and sell off their miners. The price of BTC is going down again, i cant really see a ROI for folks who got in the last 3 months or so. Really sorry for them Sad

.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: seriouscoin on September 19, 2014, 07:50:46 AM

Btc price drops 18%
Difficulty jumps 18%

Your mining profit got shafted 36% ...

But who cares, keep donating money to hardware vendors, they need your help.

Actually profit drop more then 36% if expenses is included Sad

.

actually look like diff jump will be 20%! ..... not good...

but who gives a shit, i need to help out all the manufacturers! Hooray 20 Bitmain S4 is ordered!

taipo

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Kia ora!

Definitely a stare down with large mining operations.

Who will be first to blink as they drive the hash rate as far skyward with their cheap power mining operations.

Welcome to the world of do-as-you-will capitalism.

fewcoins

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: micky123 on September 21, 2014, 05:16:44 AM

Shouldn't it go the other way? If BTC price drops, more people turn off their miners which leads to lower difficulty? Well, i guess greed is all consuming Tongue

Facts : Difficulty will never lower.

micky123

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1005

Shouldn't it go the other way? If BTC price drops, more people turn off their miners which leads to lower difficulty? Well, i guess greed is all consuming Tongue

generalt

legendary

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And heat for the winter

philivey

newbie

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Haha ye, so smart donating your money to the scammers instead of just buying coins. At least you guys have those nice fan noises to comfort you in your sorrow.

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Btc price drops 18%
Difficulty jumps 18%

Your mining profit got shafted 36% ...

But who cares, keep donating money to hardware vendors, they need your help.

Topic: Let me sum it up for you people. - page 3. (Read 5701 times)