Let this rise be a lesson - Bitcoin isn't strongly tied to anything

jostorres

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Quote from: Obito on November 02, 2019, 03:32:59 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

It is clearly neither tied to anyone. I have read this news about the apparent unusually sudden pumps it have been said that it was manipulated by whales but there are no direct evidences showing. They showed charts and stuff about mining but neither one had find an evidence about this manipulation. So I totally agree with this that come let us face the fact the Bitcoin is totally unpredictable though it is perhaps quite not feasible to say that ain't no factors are affecting this sudden changes.

I usually didn't bother much about predicting bitcoin because it is highly volatile and people think that they could only use speculation to move the market, meanwhile, it seems like bitcoin is getting so hard to speculation and not just responding to it, because before bitcoin made this huge pump, there was much more speculations around that bitcoin will dump more than that $7500 which majority of people were beginning to speculate and believe in that too, thinking that they will need to wait for the value of bitcoin to drop to that $5k/$6k, which they unfortunately did not even invest when the value was on that $7300, but in the midst of these fud predictions was when bitcoin surged in value to this present value now and so I believe that bitcoin may repeat same based on assumption though.

Oilacris

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Quote from: gabmen on November 01, 2019, 07:50:35 PM

Quote from: 7788bitcoin on November 01, 2019, 06:55:00 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 06:17:35 PM

If people believe everything they hear from crypto new sites, they can be manipulated in many ways, including to support changes that can harm Bitcoin's decentralization. For example, the /r/Cryptocurrency subreddit has been hating Bitcoin for a long time already and almost everyone there is a fan of some centralized altcoin.

You really cannot fight everyone, there are several groups now in the crypto space and everyone has their own ideas and wants to come up with their version of the digital currency and the main motive is power and money and you cannot change anything, if people are divided for a long time let them divide and the best version wins the general public vote and their investment. Majority does not care whether these coins are centralized or not all they need to know is whether that can give them the profit they are looking for.

Yeah and these sites only has major effects on new traders and holders. Most of us that have been here for quite some time have seen a lot already to believe in these news, whether they're positive or negative. In my experience, I feel more comfortable not looking all the time at what's going on in the crypto world. There will be times when it affects you even if you try not to be affected. Sometimes you have to accept the randomness of BTC and the entire market's movements.

Well I cant really deny such fact where there are really times which you cant really resist not to worry even if you don't care on whats happening

since you do know that you do have money invested on the sphere.For sure that kind of feeling would pop out and cant really be resisted.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 01, 2019, 11:53:26 PM

i disagree. it is just as hard as it has ever been, not harder nor easier. we can't really use the one case (scaling bitcoin) as the reference. that change turned into a war and took more then 3 years to conclude. otherwise other changes aren't seeing any opposition like that. for instance checking addition of Schnorr signatures isn't, even though it is a big protocol change (adding new signature scheme, new OP code, new address,...).

There was a big debate when it comes to scaling because the miners have a view on how things should go as they have invested millions and so is the reason there was a big debate on how to proceed with the scaling solutions without any major changes on how they run the proceedings and so is the reason there was delay in implementing and different views and when it comes to addition of Schnorr signature and other addition of OP codes the base protocol remains the same and has no impact on the miners and hence there is not much debate and these events passed through without much notice.

Obito

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

It is clearly neither tied to anyone. I have read this news about the apparent unusually sudden pumps it have been said that it was manipulated by whales but there are no direct evidences showing. They showed charts and stuff about mining but neither one had find an evidence about this manipulation. So I totally agree with this that come let us face the fact the Bitcoin is totally unpredictable though it is perhaps quite not feasible to say that ain't no factors are affecting this sudden changes.

pooya87

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Quote from: exstasie on October 30, 2019, 12:04:53 AM

As time goes on, it's getting harder and harder to make sweeping changes to the protocol. Three things are happening: stakeholders (miners, businesses) are becoming increasingly entrenched, the supply is becoming increasingly distributed, and gullible retail investors are selling their stacks to smart money.

You saw what happened with the block size debate. It's only become more difficult to co-opt Bitcoin since then. I really think the maximalists who are concerned about this stuff (or about "altcoin scammers") are wasting their time and energy.

i disagree. it is just as hard as it has ever been, not harder nor easier. we can't really use the one case (scaling bitcoin) as the reference. that change turned into a war and took more then 3 years to conclude. otherwise other changes aren't seeing any opposition like that. for instance checking addition of Schnorr signatures isn't, even though it is a big protocol change (adding new signature scheme, new OP code, new address,...).

as for reddit haters, they are just angry because they think their shitcoin bags lost value only because bitcoin price came down from $20k! these people are slowly going away as their losses enter 90% range.

gabmen

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on November 01, 2019, 06:55:00 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 06:17:35 PM

If people believe everything they hear from crypto new sites, they can be manipulated in many ways, including to support changes that can harm Bitcoin's decentralization. For example, the /r/Cryptocurrency subreddit has been hating Bitcoin for a long time already and almost everyone there is a fan of some centralized altcoin.

You really cannot fight everyone, there are several groups now in the crypto space and everyone has their own ideas and wants to come up with their version of the digital currency and the main motive is power and money and you cannot change anything, if people are divided for a long time let them divide and the best version wins the general public vote and their investment. Majority does not care whether these coins are centralized or not all they need to know is whether that can give them the profit they are looking for.

Yeah and these sites only has major effects on new traders and holders. Most of us that have been here for quite some time have seen a lot already to believe in these news, whether they're positive or negative. In my experience, I feel more comfortable not looking all the time at what's going on in the crypto world. There will be times when it affects you even if you try not to be affected. Sometimes you have to accept the randomness of BTC and the entire market's movements.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 06:17:35 PM

If people believe everything they hear from crypto new sites, they can be manipulated in many ways, including to support changes that can harm Bitcoin's decentralization. For example, the /r/Cryptocurrency subreddit has been hating Bitcoin for a long time already and almost everyone there is a fan of some centralized altcoin.

You really cannot fight everyone, there are several groups now in the crypto space and everyone has their own ideas and wants to come up with their version of the digital currency and the main motive is power and money and you cannot change anything, if people are divided for a long time let them divide and the best version wins the general public vote and their investment. Majority does not care whether these coins are centralized or not all they need to know is whether that can give them the profit they are looking for.

Doell

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as if the news is the main point in price movements they associate this with that is happening in the market ,it's all just gossip and not according to facts bitcoin prices are not certain and I'm sure some patterns are the same but not sequential because of the creation of overlapping prices between this and that market ,sometimes the news makes people panic but it will return to normal even higher as it has happened

danherbias07

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Yet, it is being tied again to the statement of Chinese President Xi Jinping about the blockchain technology which is a positive one.
Yes it cannot be stopped specially to those who create videos in Youtube.
They have to find something to put bitcoin or any other coin be connected to something else even if some of them are already lies.

It will still be best to stay here and read old timers explanation than those analyst wannabe.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

As you know, every time there's a major price movements, the next day people, especially crypto journalists, start coming up with their own explanations why it happened - they try to tie it to some political or economical events in the world, statements by important individuals or organizations, correlation with some other markets, something related to mining and so on and so on.

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

So you are targeting technical traders on here? I can say that those points you do said was actually true or which do happen real-time with btc price.
No indicator or tools can give out precise predictions towards on where it will go but people do still use these tools to strengthen up their presumptions
rather than making some positions without any basis which we can say that this kind of trading is pure gambling.

buwaytress

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I don't think especially crypto journalists, most media sites just publish the facts, and then go on Twitter to see what people are saying (or reddit, or bitcointalk, etc.) and use that to form arguments around those lines.

But you're right. Even from very early on I saw quickly that the market's simply not reached that stage yet where events shake sentiment so easily.

I still think of the biggest Bitcoin events (the hardfork for example) and they didn't really affect price did they?

Hypnosis00

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Quote from: senne on October 31, 2019, 05:45:46 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

As you know, every time there's a major price movements, the next day people, especially crypto journalists, start coming up with their own explanations why it happened - they try to tie it to some political or economical events in the world, statements by important individuals or organizations, correlation with some other markets, something related to mining and so on and so on.

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

The market isn't that old yet to make sense out of every movement or find a sequence in trends.
Crypto market is really small. Because of which any whale could easily manipulate the price movement. That is why, you don't find much reasoning behind such significant change in price. This isn't a good thing for the crypto space as such uncertainty keeps traditional traders away from the market.

There is no sense of dealing with their emotions, they are too much affected when they saw unexpected ups and downs. Considering the fact that we are still relying on market demand, we can't simply think that prices may stabilize. If we can figure out, the constant change of price trends reminds us always that crypto still a decentralized market, yet whales could sometimes play but not it reaches the point that it controlled the market.

senne

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

As you know, every time there's a major price movements, the next day people, especially crypto journalists, start coming up with their own explanations why it happened - they try to tie it to some political or economical events in the world, statements by important individuals or organizations, correlation with some other markets, something related to mining and so on and so on.

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

The market isn't that old yet to make sense out of every movement or find a sequence in trends.
Crypto market is really small. Because of which any whale could easily manipulate the price movement. That is why, you don't find much reasoning behind such significant change in price. This isn't a good thing for the crypto space as such uncertainty keeps traditional traders away from the market.

stompix

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Quote from: stompix on October 30, 2019, 03:41:22 AM

~

Even hypothetically, what is the likelihood that someone would engage in that attack at a few hundred million dollars cost? To what end? Miners can't even steal with 51% attacks. They would need to perform double spends which is extremely limiting. The idea that all that gear would be immediately available on the market to one buyer is also very unrealistic.

Why do you think that a hash attack is automatically a 51% double attack and the only one that would hurt bitcoin? Stop thinking the attack will be for only immediate financial gains for the attacker, there are many more incentives to launch one, and not one that large is necessary.
Imagine a pool with 20% running with subsidized cost by someone mining empty blocks.
Who would do that? I can name a lot of possible perpetrators from entire lunatic government services that want to test doomsday scenarios to simply an altcoin owner who wants to prove PoW is not reliable (EOS had 4 billions to burn) or a service that will launch its own crypto payment or anyone else.

The chain is safe because of the immense hashrate, unlike ETC Wink

.
Remember what a spam attack did, combine that with even a 20% drop in the capacity you know the consequences...

stompix

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Quote from: exstasie on October 30, 2019, 12:04:53 AM

Hash rate dropping is not itself centralizing. It's a natural and expected response to price speculation. It's not damaging to Bitcoin. Bulls just don't like to imagine a world where hash rate and price aren't constantly rising.

Although natural and logical hash rate dropping is dangerous, not damaging but dangerous.

An attack on the chain is complicated right now because of the price of the gear and most important the availability. You have to bribe lots of miners and while paying them more to get the hashrate by magic make sure the short time demand doesn't push the price increasingly higher.

But, with less profitability miners turn their machines off by themselves, dropping the costs for the attack but far, more importantly, creating a large supply of available gear that can be rented or even bought for pennies.

For example, right now we're at 90 exa, you would need close to two million s17 to match this if you can't rent anything, 4 damn billions. Even if you had the money no chipmaker will be able to match the order in a month or two.
What if the price drops to 3000 and we're back at the panic level that would put everything not matching 40j/th on hold?
Almost all the gear that was mining last October (around 40exa) would be turned off this time for sure and just increasing the number of miners that can be bought at scrap metal prices.
From billions, the whole attack will be ready for a few hundred millions...

gabbie2010

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Quote from: pixie85 on October 25, 2019, 03:26:19 PM

It's tied to everything that's why it's so volatile. I saw it go down when gold was going down once. It's tied to the governments because it went down when China banned mining. It's tied to the black market because it went down when Ross was arrested. It's tied to the futures because it was going up when CME was about to open and then dropped down when it opened. It's even tied to Donald Trumps' and Jamie Dimon's tweets Cheesy

You made a valid point here, you corrected the impression made by OP where he emphasized that bitcoin price movement is not tied to anything You mentioned four fundamental news evidences that was responsible for the previous pump and dump price in the price of bitcoin which was conspicuously seen and glaring, the OP should had back up those claims with evidences this will convince us more.

btc78

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Quote from: carriebee on October 29, 2019, 06:05:52 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 25, 2019, 01:19:31 PM

As you know, every time there's a major price movements, the next day people, especially crypto journalists, start coming up with their own explanations why it happened - they try to tie it to some political or economical events in the world, statements by important individuals or organizations, correlation with some other markets, something related to mining and so on and so on.

Well, today Bitcoin went up by 14% ($1,000) without absolutely no reason - nothing important happened today that could have shaken the price so much. Let this be a lesson to people who look for patterns - Bitcoin is random and unpredictable in short terms, just accept it.

That's true and also people must be careful to this hype news about bitcoin price because sometimes this rising of bitcoin price have follows a correction. No one can predict and can't say why bitcoin is pumping and down the price. There's no correct explanation those journalist spread a news without exact basis.

Lucky if it’s correction but what it a trap?as you have already mentioned the unpredictable market movement and the volatility as well that makes the market more risky

But we need to be tough and willing to gamble for us to succeed here,because the more you risk is the higher profit you might have

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 11:26:02 PM

Quote from: exstasie on October 29, 2019, 11:09:15 PM

What does their "support" amount to though? People like this don't run full nodes and may not even own BTC. What influence do you think they have over the Bitcoin network?

I'm not worried about a bunch of altcoiners chattering on Reddit. They can vote with their feet and dump their BTC into stronger hands, not much else.

Bitcoin's price, adoption and decentralization are all tied together - if Bitcoin would become less popular and cheaper, the hashrate would drop, and it would be easier to centralize the network. So, anything that convinces people to switch away from Bitcoin is damaging to Bitcoin as a whole.

Hash rate dropping is not itself centralizing. It's a natural and expected response to price speculation. It's not damaging to Bitcoin. Bulls just don't like to imagine a world where hash rate and price aren't constantly rising.

People switching to altcoins is also bullish for BTC. The altcoin markets attract BTC supply away from the fiat markets. Altcoin investors also buy BTC to send to altcoin exchanges. These factors increase demand for BTC while decreasing available supply.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 11:26:02 PM

It's easy to dismiss people just because they don't have a lot of coins or not run nodes, but this is how average user is gonna look like if we want to reach mass adoption, so every opinion matters. Which is why I'm worried that people are so easily manipulated in crypto.

As time goes on, it's getting harder and harder to make sweeping changes to the protocol. Three things are happening: stakeholders (miners, businesses) are becoming increasingly entrenched, the supply is becoming increasingly distributed, and gullible retail investors are selling their stacks to smart money.

You saw what happened with the block size debate. It's only become more difficult to co-opt Bitcoin since then. I really think the maximalists who are concerned about this stuff (or about "altcoin scammers") are wasting their time and energy.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: exstasie on October 29, 2019, 11:09:15 PM

What does their "support" amount to though? People like this don't run full nodes and may not even own BTC. What influence do you think they have over the Bitcoin network?

I'm not worried about a bunch of altcoiners chattering on Reddit. They can vote with their feet and dump their BTC into stronger hands, not much else.

Bitcoin's price, adoption and decentralization are all tied together - if Bitcoin would become less popular and cheaper, the hashrate would drop, and it would be easier to centralize the network. So, anything that convinces people to switch away from Bitcoin is damaging to Bitcoin as a whole. It's easy to dismiss people just because they don't have a lot of coins or not run nodes, but this is how average user is gonna look like if we want to reach mass adoption, so every opinion matters. Which is why I'm worried that people are so easily manipulated in crypto.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on October 29, 2019, 06:17:35 PM

Quote from: exstasie on October 29, 2019, 04:13:31 PM

What does any of this have to do with decentralization?

If people believe everything they hear from crypto new sites, they can be manipulated in many ways, including to support changes that can harm Bitcoin's decentralization. For example, the /r/Cryptocurrency subreddit has been hating Bitcoin for a long time already and almost everyone there is a fan of some centralized altcoin.

What does their "support" amount to though? People like this don't run full nodes and may not even own BTC. What influence do you think they have over the Bitcoin network?

I'm not worried about a bunch of altcoiners chattering on Reddit. They can vote with their feet and dump their BTC into stronger hands, not much else.

Topic: Let this rise be a lesson - Bitcoin isn't strongly tied to anything (Read 773 times)