Let us all together develop a Price Action Trading System for Bitcoin - page 3.

New.in.trading

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Quote from: hulla on April 26, 2021, 03:21:21 PM

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 26, 2021, 08:40:19 AM

Quote from: hulla on April 23, 2021, 05:31:04 PM

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 20, 2021, 03:25:34 AM

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore Sad

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc

This is the reason why a good enter/exit point with the inclusion of stop loss is very vital in crypto trading but these are the major tips some crypto traders ignore.

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 26, 2021, 08:40:19 AM

I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

I know you don't say prediction/view about the market is perfect but still, I don't think it possible to easily market clear trend, this only happens once in a while and if it happens only a few people usually get the information.

Do you know that saying: A trade that goes wrong, quickly turns into an "investment" ? Cheesy

Nowadays its simply called HODL if you trade without an SL or TP. But as a Trader, I believe one needs these things. As an hodler, its a different story.

And yes: Clear trends are not always there, one more point why you need an systematic apporoach that wins more often than it loses, especially in btcusd trading

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

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Okay lets see where we are:

And as link:
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22

So my overall bias is long now. Lets see if I get a close now inside my buy area, and if price leaves again after that. Then I will open a buy (demo account!). In case I am not able to post it here, now you know the plan ;-)

hulla

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Quote from: New.in.trading on April 26, 2021, 08:40:19 AM

Quote from: hulla on April 23, 2021, 05:31:04 PM

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 20, 2021, 03:25:34 AM

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore Sad

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc

This is the reason why a good enter/exit point with the inclusion of stop loss is very vital in crypto trading but these are the major tips some crypto traders ignore.

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 26, 2021, 08:40:19 AM

I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

I know you don't say prediction/view about the market is perfect but still, I don't think it possible to easily market clear trend, this only happens once in a while and if it happens only a few people usually get the information.

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

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Quote from: teosanru on April 23, 2021, 02:00:44 PM

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 22, 2021, 04:27:46 AM

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:

Hey I have a very curious question here. I have gone through a few posts of yours the thing we are talking about is correctly represented by Elliot wave theory. What you are trying to do here is finding wave 3 which is the trend continuation wave after the pullback on wave 2. I can give you an addition here. Use Fibonacci here. Put the Fibonacci starting on the top of your H4 bear territory until the maximum low of that wave. the Pullback would be around the range of 0.5 to 0.638 on Fibonacci. You can set your entry within this area. This is pretty useful to find the end of the pullback.

Please correct me if I am wrong somewhere here because I have been doing this from a long time and it works in a decent manner.

Hi and thanks for your opinion! I am not sure what you mean, to be honest. I read quite some books on EWT and also used to apply it on the charts. It turned out, finding the 3 was not best way, honestly, i used to look for a complete 5, then wait and trade the C of the correction. BUT: EW is only clear, when the move has been done. Until then, basically you are guessing if its an ABC correction, or an XYZ or a flat or running or whatever it might be. I am not saying it does not work. I am saying I could never make good use of it. And believe me, I tried. Hours and hours. Its simply not mine.
You can go down a snowy mountain multiple ways
1 Skiing
2 Snowboarding
3 Sledging
4 Walking
5 Sliding on your butt

There is no "Wrong" way. Only one that you prefer. EWT was never really mine, allthough I could see the patterns form and it made sense many times.

Entering on the 618 fib, only because its there, is not really a strategy for me. Where will you put the SL? Will you enter while price moves against you, or wait for a confirmation? how do you identify the trend in the first place? I am happy to hear the answers, as this might be implemented in this strategy, so I am really excited!

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Quote from: hulla on April 23, 2021, 05:31:04 PM

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 20, 2021, 03:25:34 AM

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore Sad

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc Cheesy

I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Lets get on with this!
As expected, price left that H4 Bull area, came back into it, and then left it again. That was the trigger for a long trade. Unfortunately, it got stopped out in the H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XkOkJKA/

Lets see the M30 then:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLY8OSXU/

hulla

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Activity: 1834

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Quote from: New.in.trading on April 20, 2021, 03:25:34 AM

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore Sad

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

teosanru

hero member

Activity: 2114

Merit: 619

Quote from: New.in.trading on April 22, 2021, 04:27:46 AM

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/

Hey I have a very curious question here. I have gone through a few posts of yours the thing we are talking about is correctly represented by Elliot wave theory. What you are trying to do here is finding wave 3 which is the trend continuation wave after the pullback on wave 2. I can give you an addition here. Use Fibonacci here. Put the Fibonacci starting on the top of your H4 bear territory until the maximum low of that wave. the Pullback would be around the range of 0.5 to 0.638 on Fibonacci. You can set your entry within this area. This is pretty useful to find the end of the pullback.

Please correct me if I am wrong somewhere here because I have been doing this from a long time and it works in a decent manner.

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Next Chapter ;-)

Maybe we get some longs soon, for btcusd, but ist a little early to say.

Everything should be visible in the screenshot here:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OTw7AW7/

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Alright, welcome back!
Lets see what happened in BtcUsd in the last couple hours... Basically... nothing Cheesy

price did move, that is correct, but mostly to the right.

So the H4 area is still bearish and is still valid. its a little lame in the H4 atm, but without confirmations in the H4, its very risky to trade the M30:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HokMeFSS/

New.in.trading

member

Activity: 211

Merit: 20

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore Sad

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

New.in.trading

member

Activity: 211

Merit: 20

Lets recap:
In the last post for BTCUSD, my PA approach said: M30 could be buys, but are not confirmed by H4. The M30 Buys could have ended as BE, whereas the H4 never confirmed that Bull Area, and therefore buys in the H4 were off the table when H4 closed below the Bull Area.

See Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eVr5QAZn/

So the next H4 areas come into play. As the bullish momentum seems to be broken (Bull area could not last), its either a range, or price is bearish. If I put in the bearish areas now, there could be continuation of sells:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ik21VbUY/

Unfortunately now preview is availible atm for pics, somehow.

New.in.trading

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Activity: 211

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So lets see what BtcUsd has done in the meantime and what might happen in the future:

Here is the link to the pic, as somehow this pic cant be displayed...? https://www.tradingview.com/x/bBbqRVLk/

So, as long as it does not leave, come back and leave that H4 Bull Area again, With this kind of system, there is nothing to do right now. Lets see how this looks tomorrow then

New.in.trading

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I dont want to be a "Look at me, I told you so" kind of guy, but I m really happy about what happened in BtcUsd lately Cheesy

H4

Link to the image
And in the 30:

link to image

All these pictures are hindsight, obviously. As I am still testing this whole thing, this is the only thing that makes sense. I try to be transparent as much as possible. The m30 would have been very risky, I think, and realisticly the stops should have been below that H4 Range, what still left us with around 1:1 for the moment.

New.in.trading

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Quote from: slapper on April 11, 2021, 07:01:37 AM

Your prediction is still good but a sudden candle just makes the price of bitcoin surpasses $61000. However, the current buy force is still low. With no significant news or pump from the whales, btc price is stagnant which is a sign of reversal.

Well... we only know for sure, once it happened. So basically, the M30 Trade was an BE/SL depending on how you managed it. I hate to see winning trades going back to DD so I close them many times, before they can hit DD. Lets count it as a loss, though, only to stay transparent.

Regarding the Trade in the M30, as mentioned earlier, this was the risky version, as the H4 did not give a valid entry. And hindsight, the H4 Bear territory was clearly broken by the bulls, and therefore in the H4 was no sell entry.

Lets take a look at the stucture in the H4 now:

The bearish territories ware clearly broken, so sells are off the table for now.

the bullish plan comes into play now, but this causes the problem of the "where is the Target" as we are about to break the ATH of BtcUsd... Lets see where the journey goes:

slapper

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Your prediction is still good but a sudden candle just makes the price of bitcoin surpasses $61000. However, the current buy force is still low. With no significant news or pump from the whales, btc price is stagnant which is a sign of reversal.

This is just my analysis. Things could be wrong. After all, we are at the beginning of Q2 which I believe big firms and whales tend to take profit A bear market can happen for about 2-3 weeks, and then we will return to the bull. The current momentum of bitcoin is still uptrend with a crucial buying force

New.in.trading

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Lets Talk about the Trades:
the H4 one got stopped out, at BE after hitting TP 2. so a good part of the trade has been secured:

Also, a new possible Bear Territory is forming in the H4 Chart atm:

and if you look a bit around, you will find a M30 Bear Territory. This is a bit more risky to trade, as the H4 has not yet confirmed its new Bear Territory:

Still worth a try, imho.

If anyone has an additional way, on how to select if you would trade/not trade an M30 Area that is not yet confirmed by the corresponding H4, please let me know. That is what this thread is about. Learn and improve together!

New.in.trading

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Quote from: arufox on April 08, 2021, 06:57:38 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on March 30, 2021, 03:21:35 PM

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

It even makes sense, that it all gets dumped! Do you see similarities between 2017 and now? BitCoin is hyped in the media, BtcUsd is even shown in the banner in newschannels on TV (like Fox News and them). So if everyone wants some BTC, the whales will at one point sell it to them. All at once. flooding the markets (again). Suddendly there is way more Supply then Demand, and therefore the price will drop. If if starts dropping, all the ppl who are buying now, will be the first to try to get out. So they are selling their BTC as well. this might continue to become a sell off rally and suddenly, BTC lost around 80% of its value again...

arufox

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Quote from: OgNasty on March 30, 2021, 03:21:35 PM

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

Topic: Let us all together develop a Price Action Trading System for Bitcoin - page 3. (Read 770 times)