Let’s All Admit that the Bitcoin Price Bubble Has Popped - page 2.

madmax6688

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:28:41 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

It went from cents to $32, to $2. What happened after didn't create a new high or low until $266.

32 was wave 1
266 was wave 3
1200 was wave 5

everything in-between were sub-waves.

So when is the next wave and to what height?

dumbdragon

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When people compare Bitcoin price to commodities I cry inside a little. Bitcoin is so much more volatile than anything else that it doesn't work in the same way.

Bulletin

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how to know when the real bottom is reached ?

alani123

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Quote from: kwukduck on January 17, 2015, 09:30:19 PM

Quote from: alani123 on January 17, 2015, 09:09:40 PM

I don't think that you can label bitcoin as a bubble. Why? It's really hard to predict it's value in the future. Something that is actually hard with everything in economics. But with bitcoin, things are even unpredictable. There are no limits set by laws or restrictions. I wouldn't find it unlikely if the price went up to 4 figures again, but we could also see two figures this year. The price craze of 2013 indeed seems to be in idle mode for now. But nobody can tell for sure if this is what it's going to be like in the (not so) distant future.

Actually it's not that hard. With all the 'terrorism' lately bitcoin will soon be outlawed in pretty much every western country, you can bet your coins on that.

I can't think of any western country that has plans to outlaw bitcoin. Why would they chouse prohibition over regulation when it comes to a financial instrument?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: ronald98 on January 17, 2015, 09:51:48 PM

Thanks, is the post below that states "Elliott Waves can be drawn as such that the price will never ever go higher" wrong too? I never heard any of the chart guys say that before.

It's a valid count, nothing more nothing less. That means it can happen that way, it also means that in hindsight it could turn out differently, and that after wave C where price is around 1.62 times of wave 1 (32*1.62=$51.82) it can lead to another, larger cycle which means another ATH beyond $1200. Mind you can happen, not must happen, it's also in the realm of possibility that this was it and Bitcoin is a FAD, in which case many analysts will say they have predicted it all along. (Which they will probably do in either case)

There can also be another valid count in which 266 was actually a sub-wave and 1200 was wave 3, but it doesn't invalidate my count, as of now. The thing is bulltards always say we're at wave 3 since it means we will be going up, uP, UP for the longest time. The tardiest of all bulltards even think wave 3 still hasn't ended.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: seleme on January 17, 2015, 09:39:14 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:28:41 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

It went from cents to $32, to $2. What happened after didn't create a new high or low until $266.

32 was wave 1
266 was wave 3
1200 was wave 5

everything in-between were sub-waves.

Not a single EW analyst thinks that. None.

Bullshit

It doesn't matter what you or anybody else thinks, if it's a valid count all you can do is see if it turns out to be the right count later on.

ronald98

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Quote from: seleme on January 17, 2015, 09:39:14 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:28:41 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

It went from cents to $32, to $2. What happened after didn't create a new high or low until $266.

32 was wave 1
266 was wave 3
1200 was wave 5

everything in-between were sub-waves.

Not a single EW analyst thinks that. None.

Thanks, is the post below that states "Elliott Waves can be drawn as such that the price will never ever go higher" wrong too? I never heard any of the chart guys say that before.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:09:13 PM

Here is the thing. Older users here have seen all this before over and over and over. Pls explain how this time is different from the $30 to $3 crash, the $266 to $60 crash and all the other crashes. Literally everytime there is a crash people start posting those exact same graphs.

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.
Elliott Wave followers call that wave A.

This also means that for the first time Elliott Waves can be drawn as such that the price will never ever go higher.

seleme

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:28:41 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

It went from cents to $32, to $2. What happened after didn't create a new high or low until $266.

32 was wave 1
266 was wave 3
1200 was wave 5

everything in-between were sub-waves.

Not a single EW analyst thinks that. None.

kwukduck

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Quote from: alani123 on January 17, 2015, 09:09:40 PM

I don't think that you can label bitcoin as a bubble. Why? It's really hard to predict it's value in the future. Something that is actually hard with everything in economics. But with bitcoin, things are even unpredictable. There are no limits set by laws or restrictions. I wouldn't find it unlikely if the price went up to 4 figures again, but we could also see two figures this year. The price craze of 2013 indeed seems to be in idle mode for now. But nobody can tell for sure if this is what it's going to be like in the (not so) distant future.

Actually it's not that hard. With all the 'terrorism' lately bitcoin will soon be outlawed in pretty much every western country, you can bet your coins on that.

twiifm

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What people don't get is that once the bubble pops like let's say bitcoin goes below 100. It might take 10 or more years to turn to this level. Thats what happened to some tech stocks like MSFT and YHOO and Japanese real estate bubble

alani123

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I don't think that you can label bitcoin as a bubble. Why? It's really hard to predict it's value in the future. Something that is actually hard with everything in economics. But with bitcoin, things are even unpredictable. There are no limits set by laws or restrictions. I wouldn't find it unlikely if the price went up to 4 figures again, but we could also see two figures this year. The price craze of 2013 indeed seems to be in idle mode for now. But nobody can tell for sure if this is what it's going to be like in the (not so) distant future.

kwukduck

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We are far from the bottom, we need to reach $30-60 before its technically even possible to recover.
There is so much dump volume incoming i doubt we can even hold up those prices and we may even drop to single digits shortly in a flash.

chesthing

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Quote from: Biodom on January 17, 2015, 04:41:38 PM

The only point of this is to plug his exchange where you could have 10-fold leverage which is equal to financial suicide.
Here is my analysis:
Bitcoin will either be worth a lot of money in 10 years or it will be worth close to nothing. Choose your scenario.
EVERYTHING is pump and dump: dollar,euro, gold, silver, stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate.
Oil dump, euro dump and dollar rise are the examples.
Conclusion: choose your "speculative" poison, but never tell me that your choice is rational while another person's is not.

Not everything is pump and dump. All those examples you give are boom and bust, cycles that repeat over and over. Examples of pump and dump are the dot com and the tulip craze. Which is bitcoin - boom/bust or pump/dump?

Q7

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I hope to see the real bottom level reached where at that point it will never go much lower or further down. At that level, I assume the equilibrium is there, where miners won't be driven to sell their coins as they would be making loss. Low price will make bitcoin become too attractive to buy and that is where price will slowly increase.

Biodom

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The only point of this is to plug his exchange where you could have 10-fold leverage which is equal to financial suicide.
Here is my analysis:
Bitcoin will either be worth a lot of money in 10 years or it will be worth close to nothing. Choose your scenario.
EVERYTHING is pump and dump: dollar,euro, gold, silver, stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate.
Oil dump, euro dump and dollar rise are the examples.
Conclusion: choose your "speculative" poison, but never tell me that your choice is rational while another person's is not.

Odalv

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Quote from: BTC.sx on January 17, 2015, 03:57:35 PM

... Once again, bottoming is a process and takes time. ...

13+ months of bear market ... the longest in the history of bitcoin.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

It went from cents to $32, to $2. What happened after didn't create a new high or low until $266.

32 was wave 1
266 was wave 3
1200 was wave 5

everything in-between were sub-waves.

Blazr

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.

It's done that before. What about back in 2011 when it went from $15-$30 and then down to $3?

ronald98

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 17, 2015, 04:16:33 PM

Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:09:13 PM

Here is the thing. Older users here have seen all this before over and over and over. Pls explain how this time is different from the $30 to $3 crash, the $266 to $60 crash and all the other crashes. Literally everytime there is a crash people start posting those exact same graphs.

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.
Elliott Wave followers call that wave A.

This also means that for the first time Elliott Waves can be drawn as such that the price will never ever go higher.

Some of the chart guys predicted it ages ago. They say it might actually precede an even bigger future rally. It's not necessarily a bad thing in the long term.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Blazr on January 17, 2015, 04:09:13 PM

Here is the thing. Older users here have seen all this before over and over and over. Pls explain how this time is different from the $30 to $3 crash, the $266 to $60 crash and all the other crashes. Literally everytime there is a crash people start posting those exact same graphs.

It's the first time that price went below the high of the previous cycle.
Elliott Wave followers call that wave A.

This also means that for the first time Elliott Waves can be drawn as such that the price will never ever go higher.

Topic: Let’s All Admit that the Bitcoin Price Bubble Has Popped - page 2. (Read 2771 times)