Let's analyse Bitcoin's recent market rise

Kemarit

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Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

Shall we begin? First thing first. The first BTC market rise we saw in 2019 was when we heard from a U.S sec a rumour that BTC will propably pass ETF. This was around 08/02/2019. I couldn't find the article, but i recall reading about this event around that time on Bitcointalk.

Are you talking about this news?

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-commissioner-says-bitcoin-etf-will-be-approved-eventually

Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

Let's take a look at the more recent events. The rise on 17/02/2019 was almost when JPM announced his crypto. The announcement was on 14/02/2019 but I guess the market needed a few days to make the needed corrections to BTC's price.

I'm sorry but I don't attribute the recent spike we've seen on that news. Maybe a lot FOMO, but if you're going to read between the lines, there's no bullish signal there.

Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

This leaves us with the yesterday's market rise. From what I have gathered throught the web, we are hitting the deadline of Feb 27's decision on VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF . Now, I wouldn't be surprised if some investors decided to invest in BTC prior to this event, as it could have really high % of success and we will see an approval. That will definetly be the sign of a new bull run and the end of crypto-winter.

This is wrong, Maybe you can read my reply here: (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.49968943)

Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

Correct me, if I'm wrong but this is all I could gather and put together in the last few days. There is certainly a huge proapbility that everything of this is wrong and that it's just another pump&dump scheme.

What are your thoughts? Huh

Post some news, articles or whatever you got and could propably get a bigger picture of what is happening.

There is no events in the background, no news that will push the market, just a lot of false positives that when noobs read, they suddenly FOMO and thought that we're in the bull-run. And then whales and speculators capitalized on that by shorting and booking profits and then noobs are trap, rinse and repeat.

1Referee

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Quote from: Theb on February 28, 2019, 10:57:32 AM

I mean come on guys what connection do you see on the announcement of JPMcoin on BTC's rise? I really don't see any.

Average joe action. They follow Bloomberg and CNBC. In both cases they have pointed at how JamieCoin is a very important development for Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. These empty headed baboons don't understand that Bitcoin isn't Bitcoin because it's just a random crypto currency, but because of the decentralization and security that the network offers.

People need to get rekt once again by financial institutions or governments in order to realize that things need to change.

exstasie

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Quote from: STT on February 28, 2019, 12:16:16 PM

In short I think we are climbing a wall of worry, which is where alot of negatives are stated but price accumulates anyway. The recent flush out and bounce back seems to confirm the price is quite buoyant at the moment

I agree 100% with this assessment. This is classic "wall of worry" behavior. The last selloff attempt got fully retraced; it seems the dips are getting bought. I wasn't sure if last weekend's move down was a shakeout or not and I'm still not totally sure, but it's looking relatively bullish for another wave up now. If $4,200 breaks there should be a nice squeeze as bears start panicking.

Gaff

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Quote from: jvdp on February 27, 2019, 05:58:30 AM

Quote from: andreibi on February 26, 2019, 04:01:31 PM

The common mistake most people make is to assign a price action to an event or a development. People sell or buy based on their assumptions but the price movement entirely rests on whether there are more buyers than sellers or sellers than buyers.

Bitcoin has crashed down and price has declined for more than a year. Eventually sellers will have nothing to sell and there will be more buyers soon.

Bitcoin is the only hope of crypto hype so most of the investors are participate in recent pump, But again some big whales are involving the current dump so we must open the eyes in day by day. Many positive news are waiting for future journey so keep supporting the Bitcoin pump is the only way to increase the Bitcoin value and Bitcoin analysis was not in use.

Probably the analysis won't work by just looking on that charts of different representations, because we can only appreciate bitcoin rise when we see sudden spikes and not only based on how the market behaved on a volatile way. Although positive news given us some good aspects to have an assurance, but it doesn't mean we're happy enough to see price at it's best achievements. Keep on waiting and don't dump your holdings.

Anait

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The price went higher crossing $4200, when the price was tor start to grow from $3600 experts mentioned that it could go low to $3200, or can go above $400. If the price cross $4000, it can be considered as the growth to reach $6000. To the predictions now we're around $3850, mostly the next price pumping will take us to a bigger price.

STT

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Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

Correct me, if I'm wrong but this is all I could gather and put together in the last few days. There is certainly a huge proapbility that everything of this is wrong and that it's just another pump&dump scheme.

No speculation is normal and the coin is used so I wish people would stop referring it to like its not being used and is useful around the world to people. The speculation on price from various bullish factors is fine, in fact I have a feeling that the market is far more positive at the moment then is being given credit for.

In short I think we are climbing a wall of worry, which is where alot of negatives are stated but price accumulates anyway. The recent flush out and bounce back seems to confirm the price is quite buoyant at the moment

tomahawk9

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on February 24, 2019, 12:35:17 PM

Recent news that I have heard about bitcoin was

- Argentinians now are paying bitcoin for Uber rides,
- The Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch National Bank) is desiring to improve payment transaction and are using ledger technology
- And some illegal activity is finance with cryptocurrency

First one doesn't mean much, I don't think that this type of news could trigger a big rally or pump in the btc price. As of now, the only thing from Argentina that could trigger some price action would be either a major adoption wave or the argentinians trying to fight the rampant inflation (almost 50%) by buying a lot of bitcoin for its 'store of value' nature.

The second one has nothing to do with bitcoin, and I don't know what the third one means, but I'm almost sure that it wouldn't affect the btc price.

Theb

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Why do a lot of people assumes Bitcoin's price movement be connected to any news we see. Its really has no sense when we talk about it. BTC has been long overdued to have a little price rally like this as it was extremely oversold and other indicators such as the MACD and the rising volume shows bullishness before this news even hit the market. I mean come on guys what connection do you see on the announcement of JPMcoin on BTC's rise? I really don't see any.

prtty2gal2

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From my finding after checking the charts and analyzing how the price has been going, I will say that we have gotten to the end of the dip in crypto already and we are close to the time at which we should start coming back into the market for those that has taken profit of 2017 in 2018.

I can see that in 2 months, if there is no interference by the government, we should be seeing bitcoin heading towards $8000 or at least $6000, note: this are just mere predictions.

jvdp

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Quote from: andreibi on February 26, 2019, 04:01:31 PM

The common mistake most people make is to assign a price action to an event or a development. People sell or buy based on their assumptions but the price movement entirely rests on whether there are more buyers than sellers or sellers than buyers.

Bitcoin has crashed down and price has declined for more than a year. Eventually sellers will have nothing to sell and there will be more buyers soon.

Bitcoin is the only hope of crypto hype so most of the investors are participate in recent pump, But again some big whales are involving the current dump so we must open the eyes in day by day. Many positive news are waiting for future journey so keep supporting the Bitcoin pump is the only way to increase the Bitcoin value and Bitcoin analysis was not in use.

Jamesib1

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on February 27, 2019, 01:43:46 AM

I see the increase of bitcoin from the point of view as a speculator, I will not analyze it as an enthusiast, nor as an investor.
I think the increase was to test the supply levels between 4100USD and 4300USD, they made a strong movement, with a large volume, which indicated that there was offer, many operators came in because they thought it was a key point to keep going up. . .and they simply fell into the trap, sold Bitcoin, took advantage of the Stop Loss to buy cheaper than it is now at the current price. And what can happen? We just have to wait for days and we can realize the direction Bitcoin takes and the market in general.

As much as the enthusiast inside me wants to see crypto & BTC as a method of investment, I come to the conclusion that you just prescribed. To see it only from a speculative point of you, day-trading while the whole deal is not dead yet and gain as much profit from it as you can. Every time the market had a price increase, we almost immediately saw a huge dump.

LUCKMCFLY

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I see the increase of bitcoin from the point of view as a speculator, I will not analyze it as an enthusiast, nor as an investor.
I think the increase was to test the supply levels between 4100USD and 4300USD, they made a strong movement, with a large volume, which indicated that there was offer, many operators came in because they thought it was a key point to keep going up. . .and they simply fell into the trap, sold Bitcoin, took advantage of the Stop Loss to buy cheaper than it is now at the current price. And what can happen? We just have to wait for days and we can realize the direction Bitcoin takes and the market in general.

andreibi

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The common mistake most people make is to assign a price action to an event or a development. People sell or buy based on their assumptions but the price movement entirely rests on whether there are more buyers than sellers or sellers than buyers.

Bitcoin has crashed down and price has declined for more than a year. Eventually sellers will have nothing to sell and there will be more buyers soon.

omonuyak

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I think some big investors just come across the information about ETF approval and trying to invest along. Another reason I think about the recent price rise was that traders may like to push the market forward in other to take advantage of taking profits.

1Referee

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Quote from: Oceat on February 24, 2019, 02:38:33 PM

This is what I've been talking about a bull trap activated and now look at the price it just drops to $3.7k. If someone bought it when it was $4.1k, i feel sorry for them for not thinking that it is just a bull trap.

Traders work with stop losses, so the minimal damage shouldn't be problem in that case. It's important to adjust to whatever the market presents you, and when it was clear that we formed another local top that bots were selling, you could have made a pretty penny shorting even around $3900ish levels.

It's still quite bullish though. It's the fourth time we tested the same resistance levels, and I'm certain that it will break in the forthcoming weeks, perhaps few months at most.

magneto

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I would not attribute the bullish rallies that has happened this year to any particular events.

The fact is that the market doesn't care about JP Morgan's crypto project, because it isn't anything innovative and they aren't going to release it to the market anyways, since it's going to be used internally with their partners and clients. And I really doubt that ETF rumours are able to have such a significant impact on the market, because in 2018, which was the height of the bear market, there honestly have been tons of both institutional investors and ETF rumours appearing constantly in the news, but the market has never reacted positively.

This comes down to that people's sentiment are shifting, and that's because they are expecting a bull market to emerge soon due to the 2020 halving that is getting closer. If you like, we're nearing the tail end of a bear market, and the market is expecting a new cycle to emerge soon due to the fact that it's been on for one and a half years already. This current pullback should prove temporary.

Oceat

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Quote from: LeGaulois on February 24, 2019, 12:17:25 PM

Just a few hours after OP, the price is back to what it was previously. So everything said in the original post is no more valid. The uptrend is over now and we're going to the opposite.
This said I don't think any of the points are responsible for the past week performance. Why? Because we got the same every now and then., On the top there is nothing special.

This is what I've been talking about a bull trap activated and now look at the price it just drops to $3.7k. If someone bought it when it was $4.1k, i feel sorry for them for not thinking that it is just a bull trap.

The way i see the price movement, it will maintain its stable price this week then i don't know if it will rise or drop after that.

YuginKadoya

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Recent news that I have heard about bitcoin was

- Argentinians now are paying bitcoin for Uber rides,
- The Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch National Bank) is desiring to improve payment transaction and are using ledger technology
- And some illegal activity is finance with cryptocurrency

I really think this may add up to your analysis on why the price of bitcoin is still sturdy and going up instead of letting go, But most likely I feel like there are many illegal activities that cater to the increase of its price and because illegal activities are not that exposed, It mostly not have said on the news and online articles that much.

socks435

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Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 12:04:01 PM

Quote from: NeuroticFish on February 24, 2019, 06:20:31 AM

Quote from: Jamesib1 on February 24, 2019, 04:45:41 AM

Let's take a look at the more recent events. The rise on 17/02/2019 was almost when JPM announced his crypto. The announcement was on 14/02/2019 but I guess the market needed a few days to make the needed corrections to BTC's price.

JPScam was not a trigger. And that's why current developments don't add up.
You've missed the news about Nasdaq adding Bitcoin and Ethereum price indices. The news came out in February 14th and the listing will happen tomorrow (Feb 25). And this covers both.

Ethereum hard fork (February 28) may also count.

We have a busy week ahead of us Cheesy

You are totally right! I missed the news about Nasdaq and the ETH fork. Yet, it seems that it was another pump&dump as we just saw a 5% fall Angry

Honestly, it's not exactly a pump and dump I think this is a bull trap because they push the price high slowly then drop a bit to let other investors come to buy bitcoins. If we see the price is increasing again soon well expect for another price dump so that they can harvest their profit.

I know that the ETH fork and the news about Bitcoin ETF is also help why the price of bitcoin is gaining slowly and I am sure big traders are the first to buy bitcoin before the price pump because I noticed a big amount of USDT are converted to bitcoin.

Jamesib1

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Quote from: LeGaulois on February 24, 2019, 12:17:25 PM

Just a few hours after OP, the price is back to what it was previously. So everything said in the original post is no more valid. The uptrend is over now and we're going to the opposite.
This said I don't think any of the points are responsible for the past week performance. Why? Because we got the same every now and then., On the top there is nothing special.

Yeah, i think I have to agree with you now. There is no point in discussing anything about news/rumours affecting the BTC's price. It's just unpredictable and highly speculative. Even when you think you've got it, you are wrong. BTC and crypto and general seems to follow other rules and we just haven't figured them yet.

Topic: Let's analyse Bitcoin's recent market rise (Read 341 times)