Lets find out just how powerful the manipulator really is. - page 2.

bb113

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Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on January 25, 2012, 10:45:27 PM

Excuse me but as the founder and owner of DialCoin, BeyondBanks, DCAO, smallplanet, BitDex and BitTalk Media I'd have to say your concept of "The Manipulator" is juvenile at best.

The real manipulators are the ones keeping the gates. You're looking in the wrong direction.

What if I don't think "The Manipulator" is even a he/she/it, or that the non-he/she/it really even manipulates in the classic sense of the term?

Seriously though, what do you think my concept of the manipulator is?

bb113

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 25, 2012, 10:49:17 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 10:39:43 PM

The data is out there:
Where did GeniuSxBoy get the number of people currently connected to Mt. Gox live?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/number-of-users-connected-to-mtgox-live-31614

I think the max number of people connected to the various live charting sites during the recent craziness would be a pretty good indicator. I am not sure whether this data is available or not though.

Lower left corner of Goxlive shows the currently connected: 430 right now. If you sum all the (known) live charting sites, it wouldn't be every trader. Those so inclined to do so, will write their own, along with the bots they use. I am about to write my own personal app for it since the sites are definitely suckin'. Though it would still run on the same API the the others run on, so it may not be more reliable anyway.

I somehow never noticed that. Thanks. I think if your personal charting app failed (as probably happens during big movements), you would at least try to connect to the public ones.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 10:39:43 PM

The data is out there:
Where did GeniuSxBoy get the number of people currently connected to Mt. Gox live?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/number-of-users-connected-to-mtgox-live-31614

I think the max number of people connected to the various live charting sites during the recent craziness would be a pretty good indicator. I am not sure whether this data is available or not though.

Lower left corner of Goxlive shows the currently connected: 430 right now. If you sum all the (known) live charting sites, it wouldn't be every trader. Those so inclined to do so, will write their own, along with the bots they use. I am about to write my own personal app for it since the sites are definitely suckin'. Though it would still run on the same API the the others run on, so it may not be more reliable anyway.

Matthew N. Wright

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Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet

Excuse me but as the founder and owner of DialCoin, BeyondBanks, DCAO, smallplanet, BitDex and BitTalk Media I'd have to say your concept of "The Manipulator" is juvenile at best.

The real manipulators are the ones keeping the gates. You're looking in the wrong direction.

bb113

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 25, 2012, 10:17:17 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:26:34 PM

Nope, I want to know how difficult it would be for sentiment to override the wishes of the big traders.

I think sentiment *could* easily override his cash supply, IF we could keep the pressure up through his sells.
One thing I have noticed after a big sell, and people start trading again, the price seems to trend up. If everyone could keep pushing, we could do it. He would then be forced out, or to buy back at a loss. And, I'm sure unintentional loss would be unacceptable to him. He loses some, but it would be small, planned, and controlled. These losses would be in sacrifice, to trigger panic, or to give the illusion of higher volume.

I would think it to be entirely possible.

For instance, a couple weeks ago, we were having a lower volume day (but not like the last few days). I bought 1 BTC which threw up about 10 ticks on Goxlive. Bought another one a few seconds later and had about ten more ticks across the screen. Then someone put a buy in for 30 or so coins, and I bought one more. Immediately after, someone plowed through the asks to the tune of around a thousand BTC. Now, it may have been coincidence, but I like to believe I triggered a panic buy with three BTC. Wink

Yea I like that the market is small enough for me to be able to cause little spikes. I think it is more bots rather than people watching the charts though.

bb113

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Quote from: stochastic on January 25, 2012, 09:56:40 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

With a likely biased sample size of 47? I don't think you will get any meaningful data to manipulate the manipulator with this.

That's why its so funny when stories get into the news like: "Caffeine reduces the risk of heart attacks", due to some experiment done on 30 rats. Even most clinical trials and gallup polls only include a couple thousand people. I think there is some value to it though, as long as you realize what you are actually doing is building up multiple lines of noisy but cheaply attained evidence. Then using this to determine the priors you use when trying to answer the big question:

Does sentiment currently affect bitcoin market value at all? If so, how much?

As of right now, I am leaning towards very little. This poll is kind of changing my mind though due to so many people saying they have over 1 grand involved. How many people are speculating on bitcoins?

The data is out there:
Where did GeniuSxBoy get the number of people currently connected to Mt. Gox live?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/number-of-users-connected-to-mtgox-live-31614

I think the max number of people connected to the various live charting sites during the recent craziness would be a pretty good indicator. I am not sure whether this data is available or not though.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:26:34 PM

Nope, I want to know how difficult it would be for sentiment to override the wishes of the big traders.

I think sentiment *could* easily override his cash supply, IF we could keep the pressure up through his sells.
One thing I have noticed after a big sell, and people start trading again, the price seems to trend up. If everyone could keep pushing, we could do it. He would then be forced out, or to buy back at a loss. And, I'm sure unintentional loss would be unacceptable to him. He loses some, but it would be small, planned, and controlled. These losses would be in sacrifice, to trigger panic, or to give the illusion of higher volume.

I would think it to be entirely possible.

For instance, a couple weeks ago, we were having a lower volume day (but not like the last few days). I bought 1 BTC which threw up about 10 ticks on Goxlive. Bought another one a few seconds later and had about ten more ticks across the screen. Then someone put a buy in for 30 or so coins, and I bought one more. Immediately after, someone plowed through the asks to the tune of around a thousand BTC. Now, it may have been coincidence, but I like to believe I triggered a panic buy with three BTC. Wink

stochastic

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Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

With a likely biased sample size of 47? I don't think you will get any meaningful data to manipulate the manipulator with this.

ZodiacDragon84

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The king and the pawn go in the same box @ endgame

Quote from: vokain on January 25, 2012, 09:32:33 PM

It is we who are the manipulators *doo doo do dooooo*

+2

(Planet of the apes Statue of Liberty scene)

vokain

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It is we who are the manipulators *doo doo do dooooo*

buck92

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Quote from: ZodiacDragon84 on January 25, 2012, 09:21:29 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

How the hell you gonna pull that one off?

My thoughts exactly, plus all it takes is one rouge trader to screw over the others in the coordinated trading pool.

bb113

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 25, 2012, 09:21:09 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

Oh, so you're not trying to mount an "attack" on the man-ipulator?

Nope, I want to know how difficult it would be for sentiment to override the wishes of the big traders.

Quote from: ZodiacDragon84 on January 25, 2012, 09:21:29 PM

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

How the hell you gonna pull that one off?

People would naturally attempt to do it if sentiment was strong enough.

ZodiacDragon84

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The king and the pawn go in the same box @ endgame

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

How the hell you gonna pull that one off?

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: bb113 on January 25, 2012, 09:09:35 PM

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

Oh, so you're not trying to mount an "attack" on the man-ipulator?

bb113

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Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Ok, fixed.

The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.

For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.

Spekulatius

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Whats with the people that have invested more than 100.000 $ Huh

Are they who we want to find out?
Pls add an option: ">100.000$" !

SlaveInDebt

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Your Minion

>9000

antoineph

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i guess the idea is if enough people have sizeable accounts, the manipulator can't be all that powerful afterall.

Vandroiy

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What does this have to do with a manipulator?

bb113

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Less than.

Topic: Lets find out just how powerful the manipulator really is. - page 2. (Read 3564 times)