Topic: Lets pretend Gox gets fixed monday. Now what? (Read 3144 times)

Exactly what I'm thinking too. There may be weird factors like an overly huge amount of BTC locked in at Gox, but unless a bored FBI employee is selling there for the giggles I can't make sense of why someone would do this. My best guess is irrational panic.

@Topic: Gox price will jump to at least 105% of BTC-E, whatever that is at the time. Gox fiat withdrawals are still borderline defunct, while BTC-E is pretty much unregulated and therefore the best indicator for true market price. Withdrawal tricks from Gox -- SEPA and JPY arb, expedited withdrawal -- usually cost around 5%. Price may go higher if these are congested.

Why would they go to that extreme when it's so much easier to just shoot you in the head and dump the body in acid?

it's not going to get fixed!  

that is how the gox works... once something breaks at gox it stays broken

they want you to go show up in Tokyo to withdrawal your BTC manually, and then someone, probably former covert ops, will be waiting for you coming out of their offices which are bugged up to Mark's asshole.

when you get off the plane in your home country, someone will have you in handcuffs and thrown into the back of a black van.

then they will use water-boarding to get you to give up your private keys and work for them to uncover your associates, who will also be extorted. when you are all used up they cut you a few times and dump you in shark infested waters

if gox should survive and btc withdrawals are possible again, i guess the following will happen (this is pure speculation, could be completly wrong)

i think there will be a huge raise @gox. many people will use the most simple gox exit strategy: trade all fiat vs btc, withdraw btc from gox and deposit at another exchange.
as soon as the gox coins arrive on other exchanges, it will lead to a little downtrend. the gap will close and after that gox price should be 50-100$ higher than the others again.

That's the thing. There's three possible explanations I can come up with:

• Gox is insolvent and enough insiders know it.
• magicaltux is manipulating his own market to swoop up coins
• People think Gox could well be insolvent and figure in case shit hits the fan it will be easier to make claims on a USD balance instead of on a BTC balance.

Trust has been lost ... everyone will withdraw most cash and BTC instantaneously. Some will remain and try and make a profit.

gox will fly high? yes
stamp will follow? no, I think stamp would drop slightly because at least some people will sell the BTC they withdrew from gox

With withdrawals supposedly fixed tomorrow the question that makes me wonder is why is the price on Gox so low today?

Who is selling on Gox? You can not get out fiat but probably BTC tomorrow....

Should Gox go really down do people think it's safer to loose fiat than BTC? Do people simply not understand that it is virtually impossible to withdraw fiat? This is just odd.

Big fall

If BTC withdrawals are fixed on MTGox the price for GoxBTC/GoxUSD, "the fraudachino"  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/must-watch-account-holder-flies-to-japan-and-confronts-mtgox-ceo-465071, will sky rocket to well above the BTC/USD price, possibly 200, 300 or more. The more the fear around MTGox the higher the premium. We must keep in mind the USD and other currencies such as CAD, AUD are still trapped in MTGox. The flow of EUR out of MTGox is restricted and the flow of JPY out of MTGox is limited by the number of Japanese residents willing to arbitrage. So one has the same amount of fiat trapped in MTGox chasing BTC, while the BTC are fleeing.

As for the impact on the broader BTC/USD market, this is unclear. Yes the BTC trapped in MTGox can be sold on other exchanges; however one must keep in mind this is the same BTC that survived the brutal bear market of "the fraudachino" from a high of 1038 to a low of 302. One can trade "the fraudachino" as a contract for difference on AvaTrade and Plus500 as the currency pair "BTC/USD" for a while until of course these firms wise up to the mess that MTGox has become.

Disclosure: At this point I have a small long position on "the fraudachino" via contracts for difference. I am of course also long on BTC as a long term holder. Those BTC are safely backed up in multiple places including I must say a 5.25in floppy disk, and several 3.5in floppy disks, and are consequently a fundamentally different and much safer asset.

I agree to a point, but I feel the announcement at gox will pump stamps prices up like crazy in a panic buy frenzy.

This made me laugh.  People will jump back in and use Gox and a few months down the road they will be panicking and so on and so on. 

If they fixed "everything", including fiat withdrawals, everybody with assets there would withdraw them immediately. Even if only to make sure they could.

I mean at gox. I think we will reach 700 on gox very fast with no selling pressure.

The moment withdrawals are confirmed selling will start on bitstamp and buying will begin on gox

Question is, who will sell at 400-700 if gox fixes their shit again?

Maybe stamp will drop a little, untill gox is higher then stamp.
After that stamp will rise again, higher then 660 now.

The big question is where it will go afterwards.

i'm actually banking on that exact scenario

Its simple.

1. price on gox will start going up as people will be scooping cheap coins with intention of dropping them on bitstamp.
2. bistamp will go down as people will preemptively sell in anticipation of gox coins coming
? ? ? ?
3. Price meets halfway around 400