Topic: Let's see if increase in price of btc leads to less spending and more hoarding - page 2. (Read 2583 times)
March 04, 2013, 05:04:01 PM
What exactly was the expected correlation? Let's not pretend that donations account for a substantial part of any economy
March 04, 2013, 08:48:40 AM
Nice charts, and though the data set is small as you said, they seem to prove what I already believed: that price increase won't affect spending in a big way.
March 04, 2013, 07:45:50 AM
You should make chart with donation USD volume representation similar to transaction volume on mtgox.com site, or ferroh.com
EDIT:
also, price line on second chart seems to be msiing
EDIT:
also, price line on second chart seems to be msiing
March 04, 2013, 01:11:37 AM
Donation-accepting sites represent a nice opportunity to analyze spending and hoarding habits in relation to increasing value of bitcoins. I looked into some of the entities accepting Bitcoin donations. To date, Wikileaks has received over 1`500 transactions, the Internet Archive 500, and Bitcoin100 about 270.
Let's look at the champion: the Wikileaks. Still a small dataset, but it's the best I've found. They have been accepting donations to their public address ever since the June 2011 bubble, and there have been considerable ups and downs of btc price since then.
I took list of all incoming transactions from blockchain.info and historical daily prices of bitcoin in USD from MtGox via bitcoincharts.com. The value of each donation is then simply converted to the USD equivalent based on historical prices (based on the price on the corresponding date, not on today's prices).
Here is the outcome:
And another view:
No matter how hard I try, I see no correlation whatsoever. People just use ("spend") coins to transfer value, and don't seem to quit donating just because the price jumped 5x in few months. They don't seem to start donating more during the downward trends either. All in all, price skyrocketing doesn't seem to be a problem as it is often portrayed.
Thoughts?
Let's look at the champion: the Wikileaks. Still a small dataset, but it's the best I've found. They have been accepting donations to their public address ever since the June 2011 bubble, and there have been considerable ups and downs of btc price since then.
I took list of all incoming transactions from blockchain.info and historical daily prices of bitcoin in USD from MtGox via bitcoincharts.com. The value of each donation is then simply converted to the USD equivalent based on historical prices (based on the price on the corresponding date, not on today's prices).
Here is the outcome:
And another view:
No matter how hard I try, I see no correlation whatsoever. People just use ("spend") coins to transfer value, and don't seem to quit donating just because the price jumped 5x in few months. They don't seem to start donating more during the downward trends either. All in all, price skyrocketing doesn't seem to be a problem as it is often portrayed.
Thoughts?
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