Topic: Lets talk BTC price over the next few months (downward move imminent?) - page 2. (Read 3011 times)

Afaik the difficulty increases are about 30% right now, that's still massive but not a 100% increase.
(and it will also mean the reward halving is going to be earlier, but okey that's still a while)

There's several factors that will likely effect the price of Bitcoin in the near future.


The massive rate of increase of hashing power has made blocks be confirmed much faster than normal

Normal rate of block creation is one per 10 minutes. That means 3600 new Bitcoins are created per day normally, equalling about $400,000 per day at current prices.

With blocks being made much faster than that this source of new Bitcoins could drive prices down.

Likely effect on price:down


On the other side, difficulty rising means more $$ must be spent to mine each Bitcoin

Consider a Bitfury miner, one of the most cost efficient miners that can be purchased right now. http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/576b0ab173

If they deliver in october as expected buyers will not make a return on their investment at current prices.

The story is much the same for every other asic manufacturer (run the numbers yourself if you don't believe me).

Miners are going to have to hold onto their coins until the price rises to make a profit. However at least some of them are going to need to sell Bitcoins right away to pay their bills, so this likely will only reduce the rate of inflation caused by increased supply (rather than driving the price up)

Likely effect on price: up


Potential ending of quantitative easing by the federal reserve

See: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/fomc-minutes-show-broad-support-for-bernanke-tapering-timeline.html

Quantitative easing is believed to have an upward effect on the price of gold because QE reduces public confidence in the dollar holding value. Ending QE will likely reduce demand for gold and other alternatives to the dollar.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/06/18/tds-eventual-qe-tapering-to-hurt-gold-potential-for-short-covering-into-september/

Higher confidence in the dollar holding its value means less demand for hedges like gold and Bitcoin.

Likely effect on price:down





I have to conclude the trend over the next few months will be downward. These definitely aren't the only variables that effect Bitcoin. I'm just trying to wrap my head around what the next few months will look like. If you've got any other suggestions for relevant factors please share.