Topic: Liquidity problem (Read 4204 times)

Needless to say , if with democracy and world government , election will possibly based on race, I can say that Chinese has superior advantage, because their population base.

I never feel that Bitcoin can instead of Fiats ,but one currency also will be benefited most of people in earth.

My point exactly. This is not good on a local level, much less a world wide level.

Update to your update:
Yes, but at least with my current perspective, the world is highly divided on their desires. Some people love socialism, some love capitalism, some people are pot smoking hippies and want to live in the forest and enjoy free love. My point is, if that one world government is a democracy, 50.01% of the population would get what they want (Kind o f) while the remainder will be unhappy. Actually, I know it's much more complex than this, but it makes my point.

Double Update:
Maybe planet colonization will be possible so myself and other libertarians can go there and mind our own business

In some countries , if they do not agree with their government they might also get endanger of their life.

I mean that even when we eliminating the countries we still can get party to instead who to presenting our desires...So just mean one world with many many party, electing each 5 years ...how about this ideal ? haha

An universal currency 100% is too optimistic, hopefully to see it when we get relationships with aliens.....

They also allow people with different political ideals to migrate to the area that best suits their life style desires. I am actually very afraid of what a world without nations would be like... if I don't agree with the "World Government" where can I go? At least now, there are many different countries in which to choose, none are perfect but we at least have choices.

That said, we as humans, need to come together to some degree... I don't know what the solution is.

Yes, you are right of course in reality. Sometimes I have to post a little un-reality though to maintain sanity

I don't think BTC will ever be the only currency. However, some other forum of currency is on the horizon at some point though. Perhaps bitcoin, or something like it, or a new concept. I don't know. As the world globalizes, 100-500-1000 years from now, I imagine whatever medium exchange is used for humanity to transfer and quantify resources will be global. At that time, perhaps there will be some type of purchasing power index to describe it's value in relation to goods/services, as we have now with the dolloar and other fiats.

I guess that is basically what you just said.

Hopefully , one world one currency, that can result in less war, all people will definitely benefit from it. Can it become possible ? Nobody got the answer.
However, I can't see any possibility of this ,if there are still existing of countries.

No currencies are the most traded good.

Say I will sell you 1 ounce of gold for 20 Bitcoins.  Is that a good deal?  Lets pretend no USD/BTC exchange rate is available.  Well the only way to know would be to compare all the others goods and services you can get for 20 BTC and try to come to some rationalization of value.  Now here is the funny part.  Likely in your mind what you will do is something like this.

So I can get a 10 steam games for 1 BTC.  Steam games (discounted) tend to run $5 to $10 ea so lets say $7 so 10 steam games is $70.  Therefore 20 BTC is 200 steam games or $1400.  Yeah I guess that is a good deal.

The problem with that is that it is horribly inefficient.  With little price visibility commerce will still occur but it will be less frequent and smaller valued trades.  This creates a cycle effect.  Less historical trade data means less visibility which means less commerce which means less historical trade data which means less visibi.... sorry I got stuck in a loop.

Currency Exchange exists.  It is exists for a reason.  The reality is that for most fiat currency users it is hidden.  If you buy an xbox for EUR (produced by a US company which pays profits/salaries/expenses in USD and built in China with costs in CNY) it is IMPOSSIBLE for currency exchange rates to not affect the sale price of your unit.  Now you don't see it because Microsoft does some rounding to make the price nice and "neat" (like 299.99 EUR) but those factors are going on behind the scene all the time.  If the exchange rates deviate too much they will have to reprice (or more likely not have a price drop because the exchange rate fluctuation ate into the price drop margin).

Long story short there will never be a scenario where an entire economy is in BTC.  The entire US economy (used by 300M people and backed by the power of legal tender) isn't isolated from international exchange rates.

Oh and stop complaining about "too much speculation" (this is in general and not to the post I am responding to).  The speculative market is what creates liquidity. Sellers must sell, buyers must buy it is speculators who can do both and leave standing orders.  Case in point the US GDP is ~$15T annually.  Guess what the USD Forex trade volume is ....  ~$5T.  Sounds like a lot huh er wait that is PER DAY.  US "real economy" $15T annually, USD currency exchange $5T a day or $1.825 quadrillion dollars annually.

Now some people say what happens when fiats fail.  Well it is unlikely they will all fail at the same time.  80% of all fiat currencies have already failed.  The history of fiat currencies is a never ending fail train.  Say the USD fails, then the CNY may rise as a reserve currency, 30 years later China implodes and the EUR2 becomes the most traded currency, 30 years later the reformed United States issues a new gold backed currency which is considered a safe haven.   Still in the hypothetical scenario where no fiat currencies exist (an unlikely scenario and most likely will be after your grand children are dead) something else will be the metric for value.  Maybe it is gold. BTC:GLD ratio or electricity BTC:XEC. I made that symbol up BTW.


 

Amen, the clock is ticking for the current system. Change is coming in every sense of the world, from technological, to social, to environmental. Nothing can stop it.

Fiats are dead , it may be happened 100 years later, so what we doing now is generating wealth for our next generations.

Does anyone else visualize a future where bitcoin may be strong but there is no BTC/Fiat supply/demand, because people are actually USING bitcoin for purchasing and selling goods/services, and the fiat/btc exchanges dies because of regulation or the fact that fiat dies?

It's out there, but we can't discount the fact that bitcoin does not necessarily need (Especialyl in the future) a fiat/btc valuation to be healthy.

Instead if price is really high, you can go for 0.1 BTC for try instead of whole 1 BTC....I do not see that price is really a problem for people use it.

Thank you.

Yes - a more precise terminology is price extinction, because these extreme cases describe a collapse of the sales market. Every pricing mechanism needs a solid ongoing trade volume, to be considered relevant. The infinities just indicate the workings of the underlying pricing scheme.

I don't come to speculation subforum. I watch the "recent posts" page, and see a lot of speculation threads there, which seem funny to me. Sorry for making you read my complains. I'll try to ignore such topics next time.

Here is a more detailed scenario:

Suppose that 2 years are enough long to wait until users start to spend part of their coins, then today we will see some part of the coins from 2011 flowing out. It was 7200 coins per day, so if every bitcoin investor spend 10% of their investment after 2 years, there will be about 720 coins per day flow into the market, for either re-invesment or consumption, this supply is steady and definite

New investors will only spend coins after they have saved for 2 years, so there is almost no coin outflow from current coin generation, they all get saved

And for each year passed, more and more people will reach the maturity of their investment. But, due to the rise of bitcoin price, they might need to spend less and less amount of coins to get their fiat investment back, so the result might still be less than 720 coins net outflow per day

With such small amount of coin supply in the market, if there is a speculator holding hundreds of thousands of coins, he will surely cause wild price fluctuation

Sorry to necro this, but it's repeated over & over on this forum, though the reasoning's junk.

If nobody is selling bitcoins, the price is not infinity -- it's simply *undefined.*  If you wish to avoid reductio ad absurdum, remember that infinite value is not simply a mathematical fallacy, it flops IRL, too.  There are other currencies around, so if no one is selling bitcoins -- people simply stop using bitcoins, and return to using something exotic, like the dollar.

If nobody buys bitcoins, the price is not zero, it is again *undefined*.  It's the old "divide by zero" goof.  Please learn to math, folks.

That's my point.  Speculation is dedicated to dreaming, so why come here and complain about dreamers?

Are you kidding? There is plenty of information on this forum about development of very interesting technologies. We are now in speculation subforum, that is why all  talking is about silly dreams.

Most of the people are not used to several times profit per year, but some people do. FED is printing 2.8 billion USD per day, that profit is almost infinite, and they don't really feel uncomfortable about it

Of course there is always a concern about sustainability when bitcoin reaches full market saturation, but as more and more saving can be put into it, I don't see why people are going to panic sell. Miner's productivity is much higher than those central bankers who print money out of nothing, if their work worth 2.7 billion USD per day, miner's work will worth at least 27 billion per day, which put a bitcoin price at 7.5 million USD

By the way, all the bubble comes to an end because of two things: Increased supply of the asset and decreased fiat money supply. For bitcoin the first is not going to happen, so it only depends on the second. I'm afraid FED is not going to tighten a lot any time soon, they have much bigger problem right now. And even FED tightens, bitcoin could still gain in value, since reduced amount of fiat money will create requirement for other transaction medium