I'm actually hoping, somewhat, that Lisk's early trading will be like Factom's: a go-nowhere coin for several months, all the while with an ecosystem that's growing roughly but rapidly. And then,...
I hope so too... But the main takeaway here is Lisk's crowdfunding is a success due to the fact that a lot of people missed Ethereum's ICO (which months later is worth 10 - 11 USD), hoping to follow to profit massively like the ETH holders did. But historically in cryptocurrencies, people have bagholded dormant "copy-project-technically-better" coins so much that I wouldn't be surprised if Lisk follows the same path of dormancy.
But we'll see, I'm open to it and hoping it would be a success as well... It's just Ethereum has first mover advantage and is on it's way to establish itself as the go-to platform for smart contracts.
True enough. As I'm sure you know, Lisk is branding itself as a "smart contract platform for the million" - i.e., for JavaScript techies. Its potential competitive advantage is: "With Lisk, you have far less of a learning curve than you do with Ethereum. You can get started with Dapps more easily and more quickly with Lisk than with Ethereum."
And that's what it comes down to: haulin' in the Javascripters and hope enough of them get excite enough to build a robust and lush system of Lisk Dapps.
They have a lot of money from the ICO, enough so that they can take a leaf from Factom and set up real-world use cases that show what Lisk DApps can
do in the ordinary bricks-and-mortar world. In the Lisk thread, I suggested the devs buy a sub-$100,000 "fixer upper" house in an area where houses are cheap but high-speed Internet is available - and then renovate it into a "Smart House" powered by Lisk Dapps. Happily, a fixer-upper is not only cheaper than the comparable but also better for a demo project - because it would have to be rewired & renovated anyway to make the basic services more organized as well as to add the Raspberry Pis that would monitor the Smart House for the Dapps.
(Admittedly, I have no idea how to proceed with such a project beyond workday electrical writing; with all the other chores, I have neither talent nor experience.)
This "bricks and mortar" path is one where there's been zero moving in the Ethereum world. So if Lisk can pull this off, it really will be the first mover in this area.