Pretty much everybody expects the halving so I think people overvalue the immediate significance of it so it likely won't increase much.
From another perspective, every single day there are roughly 389 BTC worth of LTC being mined. But considering the daily volume (at the moment) is 16178 BTC or $4.5million , it's safe to say that even if that 389 BTC worth of LTC would get dumped everyday, the market could easily soak that up without it having any effect on the price. So halving that 389 BTC will only have any significant effect on the price is a physiological psychological one if people en masse fail to realise the math behind what I just pointed out.
Edit: typo
Fair enough.
However, don't you you think that the volum will decrease ~1 month after halving? Since the supply is decreasing, thwre has to be some fluctuation if not a major one.
With the numbers from my quoted post the number of coins that won't be mined anymore after the halving amounts for 1.2% of the daily traded volume. The volume at the time of writing this is 7890 BTC which turns the same number into 2.46%.
So while the volume fluctuates a lot, I think a conclusion can be drawn; the halving
should have a negligible effect.
However, I think the price will change a lot more than that but mostly because of psychological reasons and market manipulation.
I personally don't hold LTC as I think it's too scary to invest in it because it seems its market is heavily manipulated so while people are accumulating LTC and waiting for a prince increase, the whales might exploit that so we might see a price decrease.
I'm curious to see what will happen though.
