Long-Term Difficulty Speculation Thread

notlist3d

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 11, 2015, 12:05:13 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on May 10, 2015, 11:26:34 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 10, 2015, 10:58:49 PM

why not if you would be using a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater. But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

In my home I need to run a spot heater on really cold days in my guest bedroom.
Last 2 years we had a lot of cold weather.
So I run miners in that room.
It is 500 to 1000 watts.
So for me Some mining is going to happen in house.
But I think I will never run 11 sp20's 3 avalon 4.1 and 1 s-5 like I did last winter.

I'm still hanging on to mining as long as I can. I'm honestly scared of next halving. But until then I will keep mining.

Propane is amazing if power ever goes down. It was already installed when I started to live in family farm house, so was not much of a option. But it is going to suck when I need to pay a company to come out and refill my tank. It is cheaper in summer normally... still not cheap to do though.

philipma1957

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Quote from: notlist3d on May 10, 2015, 11:26:34 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 10, 2015, 10:58:49 PM

why not if you would be using a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater. But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

In my home I need to run a spot heater on really cold days in my guest bedroom.
Last 2 years we had a lot of cold weather.
So I run miners in that room.
It is 500 to 1000 watts.
So for me Some mining is going to happen in house.
But I think I will never run 11 sp20's 3 avalon 4.1 and 1 s-5 like I did last winter.

notlist3d

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 10, 2015, 10:58:49 PM

why not if you would be using a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater. But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

philipma1957

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Quote from: notlist3d on May 10, 2015, 09:55:07 PM

Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 09:05:21 PM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 10:58:27 AM

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ? ~LOL~

I don't think public utilities will be in the mining game. I think it will be a game in private companies hands. I don't see governments mining, maybe regulations but not mining.

I think there will always be some home miners. But I agree it's getting harder and harder.

a home miner will mine in ck's solo pool with a device that would be for heating. You may never win but you were heating your home with this

or this

rather then this

why not if you would be using a spot space heater anyway.

notlist3d

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 09:05:21 PM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 10:58:27 AM

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ? ~LOL~

I don't think public utilities will be in the mining game. I think it will be a game in private companies hands. I don't see governments mining, maybe regulations but not mining.

I think there will always be some home miners. But I agree it's getting harder and harder.

s1gs3gv

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Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 10:58:27 AM

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account for this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ? ~LOL~

notlist3d

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 10, 2015, 11:28:10 AM

A stealth 1 watt asic chip in every router with that mining power going to the routers builder yeah that would be just a fucking perfect way to slay BTC.

I agree it would be awsome if it does happen. But do you think it will?

I just don't see companies spending the extra to make the product until bitcoin has reached almost every household, and is very well known.

I think it will be individuals making these "dual" purpose gear. Like how you mention space heaters, i have not seen it but I still think water heater is going to be posted one day. I just think its a long road till the bitcoin toaster.

philipma1957

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I punched in 1800 usd a coin

6400 diff

a 10th machine using 700 watts

and 2 cent power very hard to get 2 cent power.

I looked at the ideas and guesses made I suppose what will happen is leaching asics where the user gets zero and the gear mines a fraction for the builder of the router.
A stealth 1 watt asic chip in every router with that mining power going to the routers builder yeah that would be just a fucking perfect way to slay BTC.

judypug1956

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 10, 2015, 11:14:08 AM

Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 09, 2015, 07:18:42 PM

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

wow so 50 bill to 100 bill to 200 bill to 400 bill to 800 bill to 1600 bill to 3200 bill to 6400 bill by may 2020.

Let me wrap my mind around that number.
So I did a calc with 6400b diff

If that happens I need a 0.07 watt per gh chip
I need 2 cent power
I need 450 price
And look what I earn
a

If he is correct coins will be 1500usd or more. So he is in the buy and hold camp.

philipma1957

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 09, 2015, 07:18:42 PM

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

wow so 50 bill to 100 bill to 200 bill to 400 bill to 800 bill to 1600 bill to 3200 bill to 6400 bill by may 2020.

Let me wrap my mind around that number.
So I did a calc with 6400b diff

If that happens I need a 0.07 watt per gh chip
I need 2 cent power
I need 450 price
And look what I earn

Amph

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 10:11:59 AM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 08:59:13 AM

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

In the last year difficulty has increased by a factor of almost 5 while price has decreased by a factor of more than 2.

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

s1gs3gv

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Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 08:59:13 AM

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

A cursory examination of a 1 year btc difficulty chart and a 1 year btc price chart should convince the most asleep at the wheel wanna be crypto-economist that btc prices do not increase as difficulty increases.

difficulty: https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty
price:https://www.coinbase.com/charts

In the last year difficulty has increased by a factor of almost 5 while price has decreased by a factor of more than 2.

Amph

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 06:19:30 AM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 02:55:48 AM

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

Quote from: bomberb17 on May 10, 2015, 08:15:58 AM

Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

and they also "roiyed" already

notlist3d

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Quote from: bomberb17 on May 10, 2015, 08:15:58 AM

Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 06:19:30 AM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 02:55:48 AM

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

You are wrong.
Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

I would agree it will be more based on what the "big" companies are able to do. Sadly they are the majority of miners.

The good news is some home miners still can compete if cheap enough electricity. But there are not near enough "free" miners for them to control price.

bomberb17

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 10, 2015, 06:19:30 AM

Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 02:55:48 AM

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

You are wrong.
Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

s1gs3gv

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Quote from: Amph on May 10, 2015, 02:55:48 AM

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

Amph

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Quote from: s1gs3gv on May 09, 2015, 07:18:42 PM

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

this mean also that the price will double 7 times(actually more because of the incoming halving) in 5 years, it seems too optimistic to me

s1gs3gv

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I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: armedmilitia on May 04, 2015, 12:56:07 AM

…

Holy quote wall batman.

Very very interesting how you guys are talking about washington power hikes. What do you guys think about labrador, CAN? There's already a few datacenters being built there (GND comes to mind, I host some hardware up there), and power is dirt cheap (2.5c/kwh).

I think its very much possible that even with no increase in efficiency of hardware that the hashrate can still skyrocket, if bitmain can "spam" cheap miners and host them in places with ultra-cheap electricity. I think the key reason that they don't do this is because of a huge amount of uncertainty about bitcoin's future--after all, if btc dies for whatever reason then they will have overinvested in paperweights!

Well price under 2.5 cents is a winner.

As for bitmain 'spamming' cheap miners I do not think so they are pretty smart.
Spamming scrypt miners cheaper and cheaper killed scrypt mining.
I THINK bitmaintech know better. I hope they know better.

crazyivan

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No need to speculate. It ll go UP. As soon as the new generation of miners gets out, it ll go up.
Until we reach block halving. At that point he price needs to go up big time for the mining to still be profitable. So I would expect a short term decline until the price picks up and then it ll go up again.

Topic: Long-Term Difficulty Speculation Thread (Read 2052 times)