Topic: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter - page 2. (Read 7113 times)

this must be why your name is impulse.

july 2015 ? good to know, because:   https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3055867

I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year.

This is my arbitrary line. Its more of a fairly conservative baseline support level. I expect there will continue to be bumps along the way, but I dont think the price will ever dip much below this line failing a black swan event.

$1000 BTC July '15  seems reasonable.

This sounds about right.  Many people would say that is crazy and too optimistic but tell that to the people who bought at $15 a year ago!  It could be a conservative estimate for all we know.

I think there will be some ups and downs along the way of course.

We live in very interesting times.

The cool factor is that in the bitcoin world a year feels like 30 years when compared to financial markets.

Interesting. You should mention this on /r/Bitcoin, because I don't think people really get this. They tend to think retail adoption is the main thing to watch. I myself think people are buying primarily for store-of-value based on future promise (and wealthy getting a few percent of their wealth hide-able and unconfiscatable), perhaps followed by B2B soon, then retail - same story as yours but with store-of-value/investment being the primary driver.

I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.

So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened.

Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now.

You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards.  There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations.  But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion.  My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point.  Regardless, thx for reading my post!

Power in simply solutions

But if exponential growth could last forever, it would work. Remind me how one fly could populate in just few years to a population weighting one Earth mass in ideal conditions

Price hasn't caught up with difficult increase since June. Miners are now subsidizing bitcoin generation, while ASIC manufacturers and traders are profiting. Miners cannot be like the gubbermint for long.

Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!

I tend to believe in this trendline:



So by next September we should be at about $1000. Anything within that period is subject to at least a couple of months lag.

Haha. Snap.

Math identifies numerical trends but not the "why".  let's put a story behind these numbers:

Once China BTC early adopter acceptance is saturated, it will be MUCH easier to convince a supplier to accept the currency.  This will allow the use of bitcoin for small volume wholesale purchasing.  The repetitive nature of these relationships makes the front-end effort of setting up a bitcoin payment channel (ie. EUR -> exchange -> BTC -> payment -> BTC -> other exchange -> CNY) worthwhile.

This is the first killer app for bitcoin -- B2B sourcing for small to medium sized companies.  These Chinese companies do not take Paypal (I'm not sure why), instead requesting something like Western Union.  For example, I was recently involved in prototyping and sourcing 1000-10000 units of a custom remote control, and other electronics.  We are talking prototype payments of 100 - 500 euro and wholesale order of 1000 - 30000 euro.  Payment was an incredible PITA, especially for the prototype.  A 100 euro payment took 400 euro in time (it took more time to set up the payment then the entire rest of the prototype vendor selection process)  This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage.  So expect news about this to be under-reported.  This is 2014. 

In 2015, adoption by Chinese suppliers will back-drive BTC adoption within non-early adopter small businesses in the rest of the world, especially for low margin products.  This should be aided by another year for the rest of the world to streamline the fiat to BTC conversion process within this legal environment.  This adoption will primarily be driven by the desire to reduce costs and will drive BTC into businesses outside of technology circles.


Simultaneously with world-to-China B2B commerce India will begin its early adopter acquisition bubble (spring 2014).  Mid to late 2014 will see the beginnings of world->India payments for B2B IT and consulting services, with real volumes happening late 2015 to 2016.

Broad B2B international commerce adoption will set the stage for these same companies to offer Bitcoin as a payment option to their direct sales (ebay etc) outlets, but I expect non-technical consumers will not move to the currency unless driven to it by political issues resulting in fiat instability.  However, a consumer "killer-app" (ad-less browsing or something) might drive end user adoption earlier.

At the same time 2014-2016, remittance will continue to grow slowly but will be hampered by lack of smart phone and fiat->BTC exchanges in the destination countries.  Adoption will be highest in countries with good tech infrastructure, an unstable fiat currency, and remittance.  Argentina looks to be the best bet, India looks quite good.

Not really. It's not an analyst's trendline, it's an approximation similar to a moving average. I could have just as easily posted the following chart, showing moving averages. Just straighten out those lines and move them up a bit to compensate for them being moving averages, and you have something like what the line in the OP is supposed to be.



Or more simply, the area under the line should be roughly equal to the area below the line (in my case I discounted the 2011 bubble slightly and started when the price looked more realistic, which is the only arbitrary aspect to my line; had I not done that, the target prices would be higher). You can't draw a line like that however you want.

I posted about this chart before. The trend line can just be conveniently drawn wherever you want and the current date would be supported at anywhere from 30 to 150.

There are Austrians who can't think for themselves and those that can. Nice how the ones who can get to make the dough.

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For a slightly more conservative estimate (14 months for every order of magnitude instead of about 11.5 months in my version), see this projected chart from adamas's post. "$200 by Christmas, $500 by late Spring, $1000 by Fall." (A little over 4 months to double.)

I'm well aware of them. Their bodies are strewn all over my gold thread

Recent boost can not last that long.