Topic: Long term OIL - page 23. (Read 91936 times)

Petroleum in the long run will no longer be in demand. The demand will fall and why is it, you are right in saying that electricity, solar power, water as fuel are beginning to emerge. If you notice arab countries that supplies oil are now preparing for the fall of petroleum business they are establishing alternative business today when oil is still in demand. But to invest in oil today is still good because the fall on oil demand will not happen so soon since big persons in the government who are stockholders of oil will not allow oil to be washed away in the market.

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Perhaps in some areas this is true, however electricity is more efficient in an emissions comparison to oil, even if the electricity comes from fossil fuels. The production of the batteries is a separate issue (may very well create different environmental harm; not just emissions, but lithium production, etc.), but switching to electric vehicles would greatly reduce the CO2 emissions, and further the transition of electricity generation from fossil fuels to cleaner sources.

 

It's more complicated than that when you have geo-political factors dictating what happens with oil production. The Middle East is awash in regional struggles for supremacy, underwritten by nationalistic and religious struggles by the major players there. Iraq and Iran are more powerful than in years past and less willing to cut production, while Saudi Arabia seems to be desperately clinging its dominant position while fending off ever-increasing budget woes. Along with the posturing going on in the South China Sea, this is the fascinating foreign policy theater currently going on.

It doesn't actually matter if there is 13 or 14 million tonnes of identified lithium reserves worldwide. Lithium itself seems to be pretty abundant itself on Earth, but like gold dissolved in sea water it is not readily available, so it may be prohibitively expensive to extract it anywhere apart from lithium ores (or where it is currently obtained). The inference is that unless we can somehow produce the batteries cheap and in bulk quantities as well as make them more capacious, electric cars may remain only a dream of some distant future...

And a toy in the hands of super rich and die-hard enthusiasts

I am not sure about the production figures. As per the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the annual production of Lithium was 31,700 tonnes in 2014, and around 32,500 tonnes in 2015. The reserves, according to the USGS amount to some 14 million tonnes.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf

There are alternatives to Lithium. But none of them have the same KWh/Kg storage capacity as Lithium is having.

$25 is possible if FED policy is to raise rates at every meeting like I believe they did over ten years ago.    Its not just one question as oil is priced in dollars, ultimately the FED cannot raise rates above inflation so I think you will find the oil price is more buoyant then expected.    To raise rates would require USA fiscal deficit to be closed and possibly also its trade deficit, a surplus would be ideal but surely they must improve the current negatives especially with a debt overhang going back to Nixons era.  [As it is QE is ongoing, the oppisite of raising rates]

For all Trumps rhetoric and dramatic entrance to the world stage, his hands are tied by all the previous holders of his station.    Obama's hand over is slightly surprising but not when you consider they now share the same burden and knowledge of that precarious balance that must be maintained.   If something collapses immediately after you leave the room, its likely you will be blamed or at least connected to that loss so it makes sense in that context that Obama and not even the democratic FED head will want to upset the table.  Harsh rates are really unlikely and to me this is the greatest determiner of future oil prices for now.   Iran, Russia and many producers cannot output fully at $25, there is a natural choke with lower prices

Economics should be about trade but its direction maybe in majority is about politics now.   Tesla isnt a Model T, innovation wont balance that weight of government

So you basically mean to say that the electric cars are still in far too distant future, right? Besides, it is more interesting to note that, per Wiki, the identified reserves worldwide of lithium were estimated to be only 13 million tonnes in 2008. So unless lithium gets replaced with something else, we might never live up to that bright future of electric cars crowding out regular ones...

The annual production of lithium seems to be a little bit higher than your figure (~600,000 tonnes)



Though this doesn't quite add up with the lithium worldwide reserves

Its a general statement reflecting how people see oil and I am very familiar with the use of oil,must have been another thread recently that I stated such.
You are correct to ask me to define such a statement as I did not make that clear,was more of a off hand comment to exaggerate the view point.
My main point was more about OPEC though and how they are not going to keep at this habit of walking away from one another.

OK... let me do a quick calculation.

A Tesla Model S battery pack requires some 63 kg of Lithium. And right now we have more than 1 billion cars in the world. Converting all of them to electric ones mean a need for 63 million tonnes of Lithium.

The annual production of Lithium is less than 30,000 tonnes right now.

Another important component of the battery pack is Cobalt (around 50 kg per pack). Compared to volume of Lithium supplies, that of Cobalt is even more problematic.

Where did you get this idea from?

No one here is talking about oil going away. It is more about not using it as a source of energy anymore. Other than that, crude oil has a lot of applications beyond just burning it or distillates processed from it, for example, in chemical synthesis (plastics and other synthetic materials), in the production of fertilizers and lubricants, and likely in many other fields that I haven't even heard about. Even food can be made from it (margarine), though I wouldn't touch it, let alone eat it

I see OPEC coming to a agreement in the 1st quarter of the year,they can not afford to keep playing cat and mouse now with current global dynamics shifting against them.
The one aspect I find interesting with all the negative news about oil price is the Oil Sands(Tar Sands) are getting ready to ramp up and most projects need $60 a barrel,some can get by with $40.
So they are not going to put more money in if they expect oil to keep this downward trend or stay where it is. They get a little closer with each talk.

This talk about oil going away is crazy,the use of oil is not just for cars!

The opec will fail to reach an agreement with the big players and we will see prices drop as low as $25 next year. Look at their track record. Oil will crash hard.

Yes one of the conditions for the bailout of Ford and General Motors by the Obama government was premised on renewable alternative energy, so the quest to play down on oil is quite real and strong. I don't know where the idea that price of oil would rise is coming from, because ever since America - which was the largest importer of oil discovered shale oil, demand for oil have fallen drastically, which is a major factor behind the drop in the price of oil.

Then again is the lifting of the ban slammed on Iran, the market simply has gotten flooded with more supplies, I don't see where the increase in price would be coming from!

Stone Age didn't end for the lack of stones

On the other hand, if most cars with internal combustion engine get replaced with electric cars eventually, wouldn't that require burning the same fossil fuels (natural gas, before all) at power plants to produce all this huge volume of electric energy required for these cars? Nuclear power plants seem to be not very welcomed across the world (save for China, Russia and maybe a few other countries) while commercial fusion power stations are still a thing of a far too distant future. Producing electric batteries themselves also requires heaps of energy, if I'm not mistaken

Exactly. At the current rate of usage, we have fossil fuels to last for at least the next 200 years. And remember that there are a lot of regions which are yet to be explored for petroleum (such as the Arctic and the Antarctic). But personally, I believe that we may not need to use fossil fuels for that long. Electric vehicles will replace the gasoline driven ones within a few years time.

exactly. fossil fuel need so long time to be regenerated from living creatures' fossil hence will eventually running out. the eco friendly energy are now being developed in most of 1st tier country and when the oil is just running out. it can replace the energy

Does not look like it's happening in the next few decades at the very least.

OPEC has slowly had its power eroded over the years but it would be a mistake to think the Saudis "lost" the price wars. They were willing to absorb years of low oil prices while continuing to build stockpiles and have already found how useful their substantial sovereign wealth funds have become.

American shale lost the battle for now but I think globallythe industry has past denial and is accepting that prices will be stable.

Can oil hit the prediction of this thread? Absolutely in the long term. Will this ever affect bitcoin? If only for its influence on the dollae, absolutely.

I think oil with keep sliding and not going up anymore since it is a fossil fuel so it should die and be existinct as the dinosaurs.