I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore. 
If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.
If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.
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scale.
Topic: Long-term trend is up - page 2. (Read 2302 times)
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14% weekly growth? Sustainable for what period? LOL!
I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore.
If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.
If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.
Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)
Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
I'm not advocating 14% ad infinitum. The sharper the growth rate, the faster the bubble rise and pop. the 2011 bubble, at 41% took about 3 months to pop. The recent 62% bubble popped in one month, or 1/3 the time. Assuming the relationship is between bubble magnitude and time-to-pop follows these parameters in a linear fashion, we're looking at a time window of as long as a year before we see some sort of change in the long term growth pattern. It may not be going on forever but if this rate holds we may see it for some time, and that means there is money to be made for quite a while
*insert standard ceteris paribus disclaimer here
Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
No one said it was a small amount.
I think we're back to following that trend now though.
You can think whatever you like.
Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
No one said it was a small amount.
I think we're back to following that trend now though.
Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)
Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.
Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)
Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.
Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?
Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?
It depends on how I draw the lines, but if I go from the trough to peak for the four-week period leading up to the correction I get 62% weekly growth.
Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.
Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?
Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?
No. Don't think so. 
The rally we experienced at the start of this year is nothing like the 2011 bubble.
From the start of April to the end of May, 2011 BTC/USD rose by 41% per week (or about 5700000000% per year).
The rally that started in January has risen about 14% per week. We started rising too fast near the end of March and we experienced a correction. I think we're back to the 14% weekly growth trend now.
From the start of April to the end of May, 2011 BTC/USD rose by 41% per week (or about 5700000000% per year).
The rally that started in January has risen about 14% per week. We started rising too fast near the end of March and we experienced a correction. I think we're back to the 14% weekly growth trend now.
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