longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 | Bitcointalksearch.org

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on August 26, 2018, 03:06:16 PM

ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.

I totally agree with your point that any comparison of Bitcoin with anything else is quite inaccurate because of Bitcoin's key properties, but I think it shouldn't contradict my main point that in the long run volatility will decrease and we won't see instant 10-20% price changes as well as bull runs/crashes as often as we see them now. As an example, in the next 10-15 years most countries should make up their mind about BTC, so there shouldn't be any reasons for panics that we experience now (China ban, ETF rejection).

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 26, 2018, 02:10:58 PM

Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.

ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: exstasie on August 26, 2018, 12:21:36 PM

I think it's impossible for the boom/bust cycles to be avoided. Price has really powerful psychological effects on people, and this market is very thinly traded. Breaking an ATH and continuing, combined with mainstream media hype? Markets don't usually calm down and go sideways at that point.

Bitcoin has such a low supply (especially available supply on the spot markets) that these periodic spikes in demand naturally turn parabolic. And after the top is in, what goes up must come down.

Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.

Pab

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ETF based on futures will only make bitcoin more derivatives than it is now
It is only financial paradise for speculants nothing good for us
It will be revision of that decision but rather small chance to be approved
But SEC message was in fact positive for CBOE proposal because reason of rejection was not enough legitimate licensed exchange

YuginKadoya

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This is just a forecast but why are many so work out because of it, Well in my opinion people are really getting work up to forecast and the future bitcoin to be holding, and seeing this site may give certain people idea about whats gonna happen or what could come one the value of bitcoin, But I really think it is so sudden to deliberately trust this a 100%, I really think you can sure get a deduction or guide in this site but not an elaborate trust within it.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 26, 2018, 11:16:59 AM

This ETF drama doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect either resolution to have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but I look forward to seeing some new dynamic in Bitcoin's price, so far we mostly had boom/bust cycles with parabolic ATH's. A slow but steady growth could positively affect adoption and in turn reduce volatility even more. So, maybe we won't have any crazy bubbles anymore because Bitcoin is getting more mature and people are realizing that both the FUDers and the mooners were wrong and there are no fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's price to move so fast.

I think it's impossible for the boom/bust cycles to be avoided. Price has really powerful psychological effects on people, and this market is very thinly traded. Breaking an ATH and continuing, combined with mainstream media hype? Markets don't usually calm down and go sideways at that point.

Bitcoin has such a low supply (especially available supply on the spot markets) that these periodic spikes in demand naturally turn parabolic. And after the top is in, what goes up must come down.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: pooya87 on August 25, 2018, 11:33:33 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 25, 2018, 06:21:31 PM

and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

if too many people start believing in something it can happen. so if people start thinking the next bubble would be in 2020 by the time of halving then it may actually happen only then.
but i don't think that is the case. maybe right now many are believing it that way but as we move forward and get past the ETF slump we may start seeing a very different market and with it a very different market sentiment.

This ETF drama doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect either resolution to have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but I look forward to seeing some new dynamic in Bitcoin's price, so far we mostly had boom/bust cycles with parabolic ATH's. A slow but steady growth could positively affect adoption and in turn reduce volatility even more. So, maybe we won't have any crazy bubbles anymore because Bitcoin is getting more mature and people are realizing that both the FUDers and the mooners were wrong and there are no fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's price to move so fast.

pooya87

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 25, 2018, 06:21:31 PM

and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

if too many people start believing in something it can happen. so if people start thinking the next bubble would be in 2020 by the time of halving then it may actually happen only then.
but i don't think that is the case. maybe right now many are believing it that way but as we move forward and get past the ETF slump we may start seeing a very different market and with it a very different market sentiment.

hatshepsut93

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It was dumb to predict linear growth for Bitcoin, the market was volatile and still is volatile, and the only way to know that it has matured is when we'll have a relatively stable price for many years. But the current prediction on the site predicts another bubble in 2020-2022, which makes sense, because of the next halvening, but also it seems like they are just extrapolating the patterns of the two recent bubbles, and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

paynercash

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Quote from: kendedese on August 22, 2018, 10:59:12 AM

market conditions are very difficult to guess, even though using such calculations.
some people don't hold bitcoin because of the bad market conditions, after the bear market ends, it will buy.

The bear market will probably be out of time. This is seen as an opportunity for small investors and expects high capital. But we should not deny opportunities to earn money. So consider your actions, to achieve the goal.

BitHodler

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on August 25, 2018, 04:06:23 PM

we'll get there eventually, but i think it'll be quite a few years.

bitcoin's entire history is characterized by a demand-heavy market, hence the trend. high volatility will remain with us until the market reaches equilibrium. that's impossible as long as we're in this nascent stage of growth (sometimes exponential growth).

in the sense of tech adoption curves (eg like telephones, internet, etc) we're still very far from the plateau of mainstream adoption where i'd expect to find equilibrium. we're still below 10%.

Agreed, but everything related to crypto progresses much faster than anything we've seen before, which is a good thing in my opinion. I do believe that the coming few years will be where we can book the most growth in price terms.

Last year's bull run was a welcome wake-up call to have this entire ecosystem finally scale upwards in order to not have people go through the same dramatic situation as what happened last year. It was horrible.

I'm glad that we're not going through frequent adoption booms with how Bitcoin just can't handle any more network stressing. Everything literally depends on LN to be usable and safe enough before the next boom.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: BitHodler on August 25, 2018, 02:11:16 PM

People don't often think about it, but Bitcoin will at some point become so large, that it won't be able to flip as easily as it does right now. It might even end up becoming a slow mover just like what gold is right now.

I think by the time it reaches that stage, we'll really get to see how capable Bitcoin is to function as currency. Its main obstacle isn't scalability, but volatility. If that's no longer an issue, we might be getting somewhere.

we'll get there eventually, but i think it'll be quite a few years.

bitcoin's entire history is characterized by a demand-heavy market, hence the trend. high volatility will remain with us until the market reaches equilibrium. that's impossible as long as we're in this nascent stage of growth (sometimes exponential growth).

in the sense of tech adoption curves (eg like telephones, internet, etc) we're still very far from the plateau of mainstream adoption where i'd expect to find equilibrium. we're still below 10%.

BitHodler

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Quote from: timerland on August 24, 2018, 06:51:48 PM

Prices could go down one day and all of a sudden surge in the next - all we know that is in the long run, as institutional interest and adoption piles up, prices will grow in the long term. That's why I believe it's a great time to accumulate at cheap prices.

Everything with fundamental value goes up throughout the years, even when it comes to stocks. That's how Warren Buffett has managed to build up an insane amount of wealth by investing conservatively.

People don't often think about it, but Bitcoin will at some point become so large, that it won't be able to flip as easily as it does right now. It might even end up becoming a slow mover just like what gold is right now.

I think by the time it reaches that stage, we'll really get to see how capable Bitcoin is to function as currency. Its main obstacle isn't scalability, but volatility. If that's no longer an issue, we might be getting somewhere.

LN development is picking up nicely and I hope that we'll be able to get some clients to play with this year. Currently there is Eclair Wallet, but it doesn't work most of the times, which is pretty frustrating.

timerland

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Indeed. We've seen this countless times now how the market sentiment shifts along with just a small change in price, let alone a bull market like last year. It's interesting to see that the maximum forecasted price by the end of the year was $3k, while right now, such levels would be considered to be extremely cheap and probably the lowest bottom that we'll see in this bear market.

It really shows the unpredictability of the markets in BTC.

Prices could go down one day and all of a sudden surge in the next - all we know that is in the long run, as institutional interest and adoption piles up, prices will grow in the long term. That's why I believe it's a great time to accumulate at cheap prices.

kendedese

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market conditions are very difficult to guess, even though using such calculations.
some people don't hold bitcoin because of the bad market conditions, after the bear market ends, it will buy.

el kaka22

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Honestly I would have been a lot more happier about bitcoin prices if it was just going straight up like that but slowly. Instead of going from $1k to $6k to $20k to $6k again. That kind of bump killed bitcoin a lot and now causes us to lose hope on bitcoin however if you take out the $20k its actually doing great, all you have to do to be happy about the price is to take out that one month prices over $10k in December, if you take that out we are golden. This list shows prices lower than right now but doesn't show a $20k spike in the prices and no downfall of $20k to $6k in prices neither so its a risky 50% 50% chance, you either don't get $20k but don't get the long bear, or you get the $20k but you get the $6k downfall too.

BorisVirla

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To get acquainted a useful site, but I'm not going to follow these predictions.

1Referee

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Quote from: jseverson on August 22, 2018, 01:28:26 AM

Is there a model that can account for "bubble periods"? How successful have they been? Genuinely curious.

Not really in my opinion. It's always after the event that you can look back and see whether or not you're right and it really fits in your bubble model (or whaver people like to call it).

In the end, everything works and makes sense till it doesn't. All these statistical examples are great to browse through and compare with previous years, but people some times tend to dig so far into it, that they lose track of reality and the plenty of variables that could change the sentiment of this market in an instant.

Reality is that the majority of the people didn't call top, and the majority of the people didn't call bottom. We're surfing up and down on the waves of fear and greed, where people constantly adjust their opinion and outlook.

Even if people managed to accurately call top or bottom, it was pure luck.

Lucius

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When you look how bad they made those prediction it is clear that they have no idea about anything, it is like some child's play with numbers. Moreover when I check price predictions for period 2019-2022 it does not look a bit encouraging for anyone involved with BTC. For example 2019 will bring us only 10k$-13k$ in December, and then year after that 20k$-27k$. Maybe it looks real to somebody, but for me it is pretty low price two years from now.

Based on their previous prediction they probably will not be successful with this one, some 80% or maybe even 100% up on every price they predicted looks much better.

exstasie

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Quote from: jseverson on August 22, 2018, 01:28:26 AM

Is there a model that can account for "bubble periods"? How successful have they been? Genuinely curious.

The best thing I've come across is Johnson Lau's BETI. It's basically a linear regression model. The index indicates a range of expected volatility, and since it's based on a regression of historical price, it probably does a better job accounting for the exponential growth periods. It's not that great for short term forecasting. However, it's valuable in that it shows you the direction and potential scope of a mean regression or bubble phase.

Topic: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 (Read 308 times)